Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Round Two NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions: The Agony and the Ecstasy

So I clearly made this little graphic before last night's Game 7s, otherwise I almost certainly would have used one of the many other Toronto images instead. And clearly the joy of those Lil Caps Fans was short-lived, although really no image captures the joy of playoff hockey quite as magnificently as that one. Either way, the opening round concluded and it did not disappoint. The 17 overtime games were a new record for the league, and five of the eight series saw the lower seeds advance.

I am fairly convinced at this point that the fortnight that makes up the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is my absolute favorite time of the sports calendar year. Fortunately, this year's playoffs did not see my favorite team get promptly eliminated. Thus, there is an even greater likelihood that I will be awake late at night and possibly leaping from the couch in delight. If last night's wild conclusion to the Leafs-Bruins demonstrated anything, it's that you can never really tell what's going to happen with these games. I was going to say we probably won't see anything like that again this postseason, but really ... all bets are off.

If I was especially accurate in any sense with my picks from last round, it would have to be my order of confidence as the two series I incorrectly guessed were indeed at the bottom and the lone series that I had the right number of games pegged for was at the top. Overall, my 6-2 record after one round is a definite improvement from last year, but how does it compare to the other "experts," you ask? Well, fairly middle of the road, actually (numbers in parentheses indicating number of "exactas," or series correctly predicted in exact number of games):

1. Adam Gretz, CBS Sports: 7-1 (5)
2. Joe McDonald, ESPN: 7-1 (4)
3. Nicholas Cotsonika, Yahoo: 7-1 (3)
3. Sean Leahy, Puck Daddy: 7-1 (3)
5. Craig Custance, ESPN: 6-2 (3)
5. Chris Peters, CBS Sports: 6-2 (3)
5. Katie Strang, ESPN: 6-2 (3)
8. Harrison Mooney, Puck Daddy: 6-2 (2)
8. James Murphy, ESPN: 6-2 (2)
8. Greg Wyshynski, Yahoo: 6-2 (2)
11. Barry Melrose, ESPN: 6-2 (1)
11. YOURS TRULY: 6-2 (1)
13. Pierre LeBrun, ESPN: 5-3 (4)
14. John Buccigross, ESPN: 5-3 (3)
15. Darryl Dobbs, Puck Daddy: 5-3 (2)
15. Steve Levy, ESPN: 5-3 (2)
17. Scott Burnside, ESPN: 5-3 (1)
17. Brian Stubits, CBS Sports: 5-3 (1)
19. Ryan Lambert, Puck Daddy: 5-3 (0)
20. Linda Cohn, ESPN: 4-4 (2)
20. Paul Grant, ESPN: 4-4 (2)
22. Dmitry Chesnokov, Puck Daddy: 4-4 (1)
22. Sam McCaig, Yahoo: 4-4 (1)

So, no perfect scores this year. Anyway, on to my own second round picks, again presented in descending order of confidence (although the last three could really go in any order):

Chicago Blackhawks over Detroit Red Wings in six games

Seeing as the Blackhawks have won seven straight against the Wings, I originally pegged this as another five-game romp for Chicago. However, I figure the combination of a little rust from the time off and Detroit's improvement increases the likelihood that this series is split after the first four games. After that though, I see no reason that the Hawks don't simply take care of business and dispose of the Red Wings in Motown. If anything's for certain, it's that NBC and every other media outlet will be playing up the historic nature of this rivalry now that Detroit's moving to the East next year. Fittingly, the Blackhawks will end the Western Conference run to that feud by ending the Red Wings season. Chicago opened the playoffs against arguably the worst team of any of the 16 teams that made it into the postseason, and Detroit will be a stiffer challenge. Still, the Hawks are more than up to the task and have advantages across the board—or at least do not have one area that I would say is a glaring weakness. Sure, you'd like to see a little better production on the power play, but overall, Chicago is heads and shoulders above most every other team in the league, and even their biggest haters would have to admit that picking them is the easiest choice in this round.


I really don't want to have to endure any more of a Rangers run than we have to put up with, but the Bruins very nearly lost to a Maple Leafs team they should have easily ousted. Having miraculously moved on to this round, Boston is in for a much tougher test from a New York team that, sure, still has some issues, but also probably has the better goaltender in this series. Considering that he blanked the Caps over the final two games of the Rangers' comeback from a 3-2 series deficit, pretty boy Henrik Lundqvist could very well be the best goalie in all of the Eastern Conference. The Bruins certainly have the talent to make a series of this—if not win it outright. However, the Rags squad that many had pegged to easily win the conference has finally started showing signs of why they were so favored, and my guess is that they're not done yet. Questions still remain about Boston, and in the end, I'm guessing New York proves to be a far more formidable and accomplished foe than what the Bruins just overcame.

Los Angeles Kings over San Jose Sharks in seven games

I initially liked how good the Sharks looked in sweeping away Vancouver. And then I remembered how bad the Canucks actually looked. And then I recalled the swagger the defending champion Kings have been playing with. Hell, even as the Blues flat-out dominated Game 7 with the puck spending most of the time in the St. Louis offensive zone, Los Angeles still only allowed one goal. Sure, a lot of that can probably be blamed on the lack of a real scoring threat for the Blues, but for the first time in any of the last six playoff series for the Kings, they'll have home ice advantage. Being the lower seed last round didn't seem to hamper San Jose all that much, and the Sharks were lights out on the power play. In this California team battle, it is very likely that the home team could win every single game. Ultimately, do you go with a San Jose team that has historically let fans and observers down year after year even when starting strong? Or do you go with a Los Angeles squad that has been making people pay for doubting them for going on two years now? In this case, I assume I'm playing it safe by expecting the Kings' run at a repeat to continue for at least one more round.


I thought I was going to look brilliant for picking the Isles to push the heavily-favored Pens to go seven games, and it was close. Alas, Pittsburgh seems to have temporarily solved its goaltending issues by installing Tomas Vokoun between the pipes. Will that hold up? It might, but the Senators aren't exactly chopped liver. Ottawa's Craig Anderson isn't exactly a slouch either, and they got solid production from Erik Karlsson and Daniel Alfredsson. We're all well aware of the array of offensive weapons at the Penguins disposal—and Evgeni Malkin is right there among the leaders for Conn Smythe votes after one round—but like many, I've got my doubts about both top seeds making it to the Cup. That said, I've probably picked Pittsburgh for the last time in these playoffs and I'm anticipating that they suffer a "shocking" early ouster here.

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