There is once again a certain sense that all four of the remaining teams have legitimate shots at advancing, and hence, winning the title. While the defending champions are certainly still the popular favorite, the Heat will get their biggest challenge yet in the Pacers and the Spurs-Grizzlies series could be considered a tossup. If nothing else, it should be two spirited series to determine who goes to this year's NBA Finals.
As I said, I went four for four last round (with two series called in the correct number of games), bringing me to 10-2 the playoffs (with six total series predicted in the exact number of games). I don't know how that compares to the other "experts," but I'm guessing that it's probably about par for the course. As for my conference finals picks, much like my first round picks this year, what follows is the exact same Finals I was predicting last year:
Miami Heat over Indiana Pacers in six games
Look, I'm rooting against Miami as much as anybody. But if any team beats them (and all three of the possible remaining opponents could do that), I'm not likely to go out on a limb to predict that. Yeah, there's concerns about the health of Dwayne Wade, but there is absolutely no doubt that LeBron James is the best player in the league and the dude can single-handedly take over any game at any point. The Pacers are a new kind of threat for Miami because of their size and their defense, and while I believe that could help Indiana steal one of the first two games and maybe even earn them a 2-1 or 3-1 lead in the series, Erik Spoelstra is no dummy. What Miami lacks in post presence, it will compensate for with ability along the perimeter. In the end, I think a very capable Pacers club gives the champs an early scare, but is ultimately outclassed by a better basketball team.
San Antonio Spurs over Memphis Grizzlies in seven games
This one's tough, and my instincts actually say to go with Memphis. As impressive as it was to see the Grizzlies dispose of the albeit Westbrook-less Thunder in five games last round and keeping in mind that Memphis was the eight-seeded team that knocked off the top-ranked Spurs just a few seasons ago, the rooting interest I have had in San Antonio leads me to believe that Gregg Popovich is simply the better coach and he gets his veterans to survive one more round. Again, the Grizzlies have the size and the skill to compete with anybody at this point, and they are probably becoming most people's favorite underdog at this point in the playoffs. Still, I'm going to believe that experience also counts for something at this point in the playoffs and whether that means stupid fouls that show frustration or smart ones to put poor-shooting players on the free throw line, San Antonio is going to be the team that makes the right moves at the right times and emerges from a very hard fought series that goes the maximum number of games. (Now watch Memphis come out and sweep them. Many observers have said the Grizzlies are the one team that can legitimately threaten the Heat.)
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