Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Round One NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions: For Better or Worse

As is so often the case when the Stanley Sup Playoffs begin, I get to look back on my preseason predictions and basically make everything red. For the second straight year, a mere five of the teams in their correct spots in the final standings—although I has the top three teams in the Central and the Metropolitan right, just in the wrong order.

I correctly guessed seven of the eight Western Conference playoff teams, but only five of the eight Eastern Conference playoff teams. (FULL DISCLOSURE: I originally entered that predicted Lightning opponent as "Red Blue Jackets," which I'm assuming was intended to be Columbus and not Detroit—even though the Wings would've counted as another correct guess.) At least both of my final two teams are still alive this year—although both seem rather vulnerable from the outset.

While I'll certainly be rooting for the Blackhawks to repeat and win a fourth Cup in seven seasons, the team's defense is still somewhat of a concern. Of course, the most pressing issue this year may be how much hockey I get to watch. The hope is that holding a sleeping child while watching late-night playoff games goes over well with the wife, but the child's newfound love of the kid's apps on my phone could pose problems if I'm forced to rely on the NBC Sports app.

I'm fairly confident I'll find one way or another to watch as much hockey as I can consume, and I'm expecting surprises along the way.

Here's my picks in the usual descending order of confidence:
Dallas Stars over Minnesota Wild in five games

Unbelievably, I originally had the Rags missing the playoffs this year. Coming off of a runner-up season, I guess I expected something akin to a "Super Bowl slump." Instead, they won the Presidents' Trophy. Now I know many people (myself, at one time, included) believe that there's a "curse" associated with winning this trophy, but let's keep in mind the Blackhawks ran away with it just two years ago on their way to winning a Cup. I'm not saying that this makes New York the clear favorite to be crowned champions this year, but I simply don't see them having too much difficulty with a Pittsburgh team that barely got into the playoffs. My guess is we'll get the usual game from Marc-André Fleury where he plays great and people suggest he might have overcome his demons before he immediately soils himself in the nest two or three. There's no such concerns about Henrik Lundqvist, and if anything, the Rangers could end this series a lot sooner than I'm going with here. (NOTE: So I guess it's obvious that I cut and pasted the previous year's predictions to use as a template here without updating my commentary for this pick. Anyhow, this was the most obvious pick to me because Minnesota completely backed into the playoffs. As is pretty obvious through the first three games of this series, Dallas is just a much more capable team when it comes to scoring.)

Washington Capitals over Philadelphia Flyers in five games

I remember all to well the Caps winning the Presidents' Trophy in 2009-10 only to be immediately ousted in the first round of the playoffs. It's hard not to feel that the resilient Flyers could do the same thing, but the numbers are a little harder to make be a real believer. Special teams in this series should make the difference, with Washington likely to capitalize on most power play opportunities while Philadelphia could struggle against the Capitals penalty kill. 

Pittsburgh Penguins over New York Rangers in six games

Certainly some goaltending concerns with Pittsburgh—but that seems to have been the story for years now (who'd have guessed that we'd be saying that without Marc-André Fleury?). Still, the Pens finished as one of, if not the hottest team in the league. And even without Evgeni Malkin, the struggles of Henrik Lundqvist on the road this year lead me to believe Pittsburgh will be able to take care of business.



Los Angeles Kings over San Jose Sharks in seven games

Putting aside the Blackhawks, obviously, this is probably the must-see series for the first round. I picked the Kings before the season began and feel pretty confident in sticking with that pick. San Jose, however, has exceeded everybody's expectations and should give Los Angeles a good test. I like the story about the Sharks wanting to avenge that blown 3-0 series lead in 2014, but I still think the Kings are too deep and too talented not to advance.

Anaheim Ducks over Nashville Predatorin seven games

Both teams rebounded pretty well after slow starts to the season, but I'm finally going to actually pick the Ducks to get out of the first round. I don't have any faith in them getting beyond this round, but Anaheim's got a deep roster with playoff experience that should avoid another disappointment.

Detroit Red Wings over Tampa Bay Lightning in six games

Sorry, but can't buy into the defending Eastern Conference champions when they'll be without Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman. Detroit's not exactly a team I'm crazy about, but they're certainly healthier and have a little extra motivation if this indeed the last run for Pavel Datsyuk. 


Chicago Blackhawks over St. Louis Blues in six games

I haven't picked against the beloved Blackhawks in any playoff series since they faced Detroit in 2009. You know, before they won a Cup. St. Louis is a much more favorable draw than Dallas because, well, we all know how the Blues do the playoffs every year. In all fairness, I don't expect another blown 2-0 series lead from St. Louis this year. I'm guessing it's more like the Blues win the opener, lose the next three, and take one more home game before being eliminated in Chicago.

New York Islanders over Florida Panthers in seven games

I don't think I've seen anybody pick the Isles, but I'm sticking with my original Stanley Cup Final—probably to my detriment. New York is banged up, but I just have a strange feeling that Jaroslav Halak backup Thomas Greiss is going to end up being the goalie who turns out a stunning performance with help from the guys in front of him. If you doubt my commitment to the Islanders, view my Stanley Cup Bracket Challenge submission—will almost certainly be a loser after one round:



No comments: