Thursday, January 22, 2009

Uneducated Guesswork (UPDATED)

There was a time when tomorrow morning would have been reason for me to set an alarm, brew an extra pot of coffee and have my neatly hand-written predictions prepared. However, I've become less and less interested in the Academy Awards with each passing year. Actually, that's pretty evident just by doing a quick look back at the space I've devoted to Hollywood's orgy of self-congratulation on this blog. In 2006 (the first year for anything here at BMC), I had to go back into my e-mail to put up my predicted nominees but did manage to get my predicted winners up in time. The following year, it appears I only managed to get the nominee predictions up. And last year, I seemingly forgot about the whole thing entirely.

Now, there's various explanations for this, one of which is quite simply that I'm just not the movie nut I used to be. I saw essentially every movie released in the 1990s and while I think know I can back up my opinion on whatever category from whichever year you'd like to discuss from that decade, there's a great many films in this current decade I just never got around to seeing. I mean, there were plenty of great films that came out of the 90s, but there was also a lot of just absolute crap.

However, I've been finding myself in recent months discussing movies with more and more people. A friend I made this past year has been discussing most of the hyped films with me and which are worth seeing. I caught more of the bigger releases this year before the ceremony than in years past as well. And I'm particularly fond of Will Lietch, formerly a man-crush of mine because of his creation of Deadspin, now using a Tumblr to post movie reviews—and his own Oscar predictions!

Now all of that said, there's still a lot of movies I didn't see this year—and most of those, of course, are probably going to be what will be nominated tomorrow morning. However, as the business usually goes, that means once nominated, the films get a wider release, and schmucks like myself who don't make it down to the hip theaters in Chicago anymore can go enjoy an "important" film with a few other fellow suburbanites whom almost certainly will talk throughout the entire thing.

Anyway, I haven't done too much in-depth research about what has helped or hurt certain film campaign's chances, so I'm sure that tomorrow night when I have more time to read over reactions to the nominations, I'm bound to find plenty of items that will make me say, "See, you should have known that wouldn't get nominated."

Nonetheless, here's me familiarizing myself once again with an old habit and guessing how the "Big Eight" will be announced tomorrow morning while I'm still soundly asleep and hoping I don't get written up during our restaurant's evaluation by the corporate douchebags we've got visiting tomorrow for lunch.

I will add updated thoughts to this tomorrow evening:

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
James Franco, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Andrew Stanton, Wall-E
Robert D. Siegel, The Wrestler

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
David Hare, The Reader
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

I'm second-guessing myself already.

UPDATE: Perhaps "Really Uneducated" would have been more appropriate. So, keeping with my apparent pattern of decline on posting these predictions, I once again did four worse than the previous time, ending up at 28 out of 40. I guess that by comparison to most of the other picks I've seen, it's not terribly behind the rest of the pack. But the Adapted Screenplay category was my only five for five, and I was left with these thoughts when looking at the nominees this morning:

  • A few months ago, I had told my buddy, B. Doggy, that The Dark Knight probably wouldn't even be nominated for Best Picture. My logic at that time was that the Academy wasn't going to want to give that kind of an honor to a super-hero flick. Apparently, I should have stuck with that thinking. But as I looked at what the top films were considered to be, there was no denying that Christopher Nolan's film had not only been a huge commercial success, but the movie had also won pretty sweeping critical acclaim. Alas, it ended up getting snubbed in both Best Picture and Best Director, which doesn't really surprise me all that much or disappoint me either (I enjoyed it, but still thought it was too long and found myself at numerous times throughout the movie thinking of how many scenes could have been trimmed down to make the film move quicker).
  • Dark Knight being bumped by The Reader was first among Dave Karger's possible surprises, but another one of his possibilities that also came to pass was the Academy ignoring Kate Winslet's campaign for a Supporting Actress nod for The Reader and instead making that performance her Best Actress nod. I should have known the Academy would do something like that.
  • Richard Jenkins was my wild card pick for the Best Actor, but I thought Brad Pitt would be the guy ending up on the outside looking in. So much for that. I know that most reaction I've heard to Gran Torino has been lukewarm at best, but I thought Clint Eastwood could get nominated by reading the phone book on the toilet. His snub was rather surprising, as is the fact that Gran Torino was shut out completely.
  • Happy-Go-Lucky was, in my mind, the most I've heard of a Mike Leigh film since Topsy-Turvy (which was critically acclaimed, yet bored the hell out of me). I thought the respected Leigh and his leading actress were safer bets, but I was triple-screwed as neither of those predicted nominations came to pass and instead the film got a screenplay nod I hadn't seen coming.
  • So Best Original Song is down to only three nominees now? And Bruce Springsteen wasn't one of them? Really?
  • What the hell is Frozen River about anyway?
  • Most everything I've heard today indicates Slumdog Millionaire is still considered the favorite to win Best Picture. This despite Benjamin Button having the most nominations and having the sort of sappy heart the Academy tends to love. I'm not sold on a winner yet, I guess.
  • What, now the Academy actually makes sure their five nominees for Director actually line up with the five they've got for Picture? I thought they always went out of their way to have one that didn't match, but if I recall correctly, this is like the second time in three years that they've kept their heads out of their asses. Wow, what progress.
  • They were asking on the radio if Heath Ledger would have gotten this nomination had he still been alive. I believe the answer would have to be yes. I mean, I love Robert Downey Jr., but an Oscar nomination for Tropic Thunder? Not as strong a year for the supporting males, I guess.
  • With all the token nominations she's had, isn't Meryl Streep due to actually win again one of these years?
  • Do you even remember the name of that girl who won Best Actress last year? What else has she been in—I mean, like, ever?
  • I have a lot of fucking movies to see in the next month if I'm to do an honest version of the old "Derek's Ballot" that I used to do. Then again, it's been years since I was able to catch all the nominated films in order to say who clearly deserved to win, so I'm likely to stick with just following the gossip and guessing who will be making acceptance speeches, deserved or not.
Written by D. Rock at 12:09:00 AM 1 comments
Tags: ,

Friday, January 16, 2009

Conference Championship Picks

I went 3-1 last week, among the many who simply didn't give the Buzzsaw that is the Arizona Cardinals their proper credit, apparently. At 5-3 so far this post-season, I'll need to get all three remaining games correct if I'm to improve on last year's 7-4 record for playoff predictions. Among the crowd at Yahoo! and ESPN, I'm in a five-way tie for second place with Mike Golic, of all people, leading the pack. Sorry if that sort of bothers me, but Golic finished at the bottom with Seth Wickersham in the regular season, so his resurgence is somewhat stunning. Still, it is a difference of one game and these are the playoffs we're talking about, so chances are that when all is said and done, most of the records for these "experts" is going to be pretty close—unless, of course, you're talking about poor David Fleming, who has now guaranteed he will finish below .500 in his own predictions. Chump.

Anyway, here's a look at how everyone has performed so far this post-season (last week's record in parentheses) and what their Super Bowl predictions are heading into this weekend:

Mike Golic, ESPN: 6-2 (3-1)
(Philadelphia-Pittsburgh)
YOURS TRULY: 5-3 (3-1)
ESPN Accuscore: 5-3 (2-2)
(Philadelphia-Pittsburgh)
Eric Allen, ESPN: 5-3 (2-2)
(Philadelphia-Pittsburgh)
Jason Cole, Yahoo!: 5-3 (2-2)
(Philadelphia-Pittsburgh)
Charles Robinson, Yahoo!: 5-3 (2-2)
(Philadelphia-Baltimore)
James C. Black, Yahoo!: 4-4 (2-2)
(Philadelphia-Baltimore)
Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 4-4 (2-2)
(Philadelphia-Pittsburgh)
Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 4-4 (1-3)
(Philadelphia-Pittsburgh)
Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 4-4 (2-2)
(Arizona-Pittsburgh)
Michael Silver, Yahoo!: 4-4 (2-2)
(Arizona-Pittsburgh)
Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 4-4 (1-3)
(Arizona-Pittsburgh)
Merril Hoge, ESPN: 3-5 (1-3)
(Arizona-Pittsburgh)
David Fleming, ESPN: 2-6 (1-3)
(Philadelphia-Pittsburgh)

So nobody has a Super Bowl without a team from Pennsylvania? Yep, looks like that's the case, because my own predictions go like this:

Philadelphia Eagles over Arizona Cardinals

I have placed whichever team is playing the Buzzsaw as my most confident pick each of the past two weeks, and trust me, I'm hoping that I end up being wrong here. I'd love to see the Cardinals go to the Super Bowl and avoid the city of Philadelphia winning another world championship so soon. Still, the Eagles have been rolling and won't be phased by one more road game.


Baltimore Ravens over Pittsburgh Steelers

Hey, did you hear Baltimore's banged up? And their quarterback is a rookie? And so on.

But the Ravens wanted this matchup ever since they got screwed out of the division title. I'd actually be more nervous about their chances if it were any other team, but Baltimore's pulling this off.
Written by D. Rock at 6:19:00 PM 1 comments
Tags: ,

Monday, January 12, 2009

The "Must" List

A couple of the kids started a book club on Tumblr and I decided to participate by purchasing this month's selection. I didn't offer up any novels when suggestions were being sought, but a list suddenly hit me midway through one of the chapters.

 One of my professors from college that I had a lot of respect for had e-mailed us a copy of "must-read" books at the end of the semester, a list he credited to his becoming a very respected feature writer for a reputable magazine.

 It took a little bit of searching on my end (Hey, they didn't delete my old Yahoo! account!), but now I'm adding that list here as a reference either for the Tumblr club or my own personal use in the future (when that Yahoo! account is finally deleted).

 Here's what he sent us a few years ago: 
After I mentioned the reading list my mentor gave me when I was a student, a couple of you expressed in seeing it. So here goes. I grant you that it is a little intimidating at first glance. But I guarantee that if you only read the "must-read" fiction and non-fiction for nonfiction writers, you will be astonished at what it will do for your career.
Jon Franklin's Reading List
While some of the books below are definitely world class literature, this is not a "great books list." That kind of a list would have to include Shakespeare, Dante, and all the rest. It would definitely not include, say, Syd Field. And Jessica Mitford, as much as I admire her, would have to step aside for Milton or Moliere. As for Franklin . . . well . . . whose reading list is this, anyway?
Suffice it to say that the list is presented as a compendium of books which, as a student of the nonfiction craft, you are likely to hear much about and/or find useful. Other students will talk about them, professors will refer to them and you will see dog-eared copies of some of them lying around. If you haven't read them, or most of them, your education will be more difficult and the value of your diploma less enduring.
With those words, I commend to you these books:
Must-Read Fiction for Nonfiction Writers:
Must-Read Literary Nonfiction:
Poetry:
  • Michael Norman (NYU) has his students read Walt Whitman's "Memoranda During the War," Applewood Books, about his days in the hospitals in Washington. Norman writes that "if one reads this thin, compelling volume and then reads the "Drum Taps" poems, one begins to see how the same reporting, the same images, may be used in the service of journalism and in the service of art."
On Journalism & Nonfiction:
On the Culture:
On Writing:
On Science:
Written by D. Rock at 11:45:00 PM 0 comments
Tags:

These bitches are crazy

My buddy at work, B. Doggy, made a rather strange bet, in my mind. A few weeks back, he and another friend agreed to see who could go longer without masturbating—or having an orgasm at all, I guess. I wasn't real clear on what the rules were for the bet, let alone the point. "Why would you want to do that to yourself?" I asked, citing the fact that cleaning your pipes is supposed to reduce your risk for prostate cancer.

I've been seeing the same girl for a little over eight months now, although the latter four have been far more rocky than the first four. Because she works in retail, the holidays were a nightmare for us being able to spend time with one another. That was understandable ... sort of.

I was promised that a number of things were going to change with the new year, but so far, things have gotten increasingly worse. She's been living under a somewhat bullshit "curfew" imposed by the brother she lives with for the time being—well, when she's not staying with her sister ... or other brother? If that sounds confusing, imagine how it sounds to me. Because ever since she moved out of her apartment at the end of August, I've listened to the same promise about her moving out "soon," or her being able to spend the night "soon." And after four months of this, when is it fair to finally say that I'm being strung along on a seemingly endless series of promises for a return to the days we had like this past summer when we were spending nearly every waking moment together?

And with her canceling so many of the plans we make because of work or whatever reason, my natural sense of skepticism can't help but believe I'm being bullshitted.

I'm normally a pretty good guy about adhering to the commitment of a relationship, but I can't really say I feel that she's holding her end of the bargain. My pessimism is helped none by the fact that I'm the guy coming after her nearly 10-year relationship ended. The fellow she had been dating is someone she still talks to (which is understandable) and also participates in the volleyball league at her church that again deprives me of time spent with her.

When she left early a few weeks back to go running to an open gym volleyball night after exchanging texts with her ex, I was livid. I went out the following night to one of the local bars with K, a friend that had worked with me at the chain restaurant I'm currently at. She now works at the country club I had been working at a year ago. Many of my old co-workers came out as well.

Things went fine and it was a relatively uneventful evening until K and another former co-worker, L, dropped me off at home that evening. As I was getting out of the back seat, L unfastened her seat belt and said, "I wanna' get out and kiss you!"

I thought she was kidding, and gave K the usual hug and thanks for the ride. But then L came over to me, we embraced, and indeed, she began kissing me. I didn't exactly fight her off, but with my supposed "girlfriend" firmly on my shit list after blowing me off for her ex, I was feeling pretty justified.

The following day, I dismissed the whole thing as comical. The way in which L kissed was almost entirely all tongue, and it was right in front of K, so there was hardly anything intimate about it.

I would've told my girl about it, but seeing as we see each other roughly once a week and rarely get to speak on the phone outside of text messaging, the opportunity never really presented itself. Instead, when my lady promised to come over Friday night after she finished work, she once again had to back out, saying something about the CEO of the company coming to visit in two weeks. It sounded like another bullshit excuse and when she promised to make it up to me on Sunday—a day in which she had already said she might be refereeing a youth volleyball tournament—I immediately said I wouldn't get my hopes up.

Considering L is married, I did feel a bit of personal guilt, which was made even more awkward this past Saturday evening. After getting off work, K again came by to pick me up and take me out to the same bar. We went upstairs to the dancing area of the establishment, where I stood against the wall and scoped out all the girls I would make a move on if I were really so inclined to try and make a pass at anybody. But soon enough, L approached me with her hair very wet and glistening in sweat. She danced in front of me, rubbing up against me as I stood there not really compelled to move at all by the techno thumping in the background.

I let L mingle back to the dance floor with another girl before a larger gentleman made his way over towards us, grabbing L and kissing her on the dance floor.

The man was later introduced to me as L's husband.

Fantastic. The music was much too loud for me to fully catch what K and L were trying to say into my ear, so I often shrugged my shoulders and refused to go out on the dance floor. When L's husband introduced himself to me and himself asked that I dance with his wife, I found myself in an even more awkward spot. Luckily, the music stopped and the bar was closed.

At home later that night, still not having heard from my own supposed "girlfriend," L began lighting up my cell phone with texts. She apologized that her husband showed up and said how she didn't know he would be there. I said it wasn't really a big deal, since I knew she was married.

And that's when she responded with:
I kno but he agreed 2 hav an open relationship and i wanted 2 fuck u
Hmm ...

Naturally, I began to ignore the rest of the texts that came in that evening. I blamed it on me having to go to bed so I could be up early on Sunday morning (which was true). Supposedly, my "girlfriend" was planning on coming over that day.

Of course, I never heard from her before I left for work on Sunday afternoon. So I was still privately fuming by the time my phone vibrated with this message:
Sorry... About this weekend. I will call you tomorrow and let you know what's going on?
Mostly because I felt like being difficult, I responded quite simply:
Don't bother.
A few minutes later, she replied:
That's up to you. You want it done and don't want to hear what happened than that's up to you. Nice to know that you stopped loving me.
The last sentence struck me as a tad melodramatic, something said only to start a fight. So I ignored it and refused to get into it while I was at work.

Less than a half-hour later, I felt the phone vibrate again and figured the lady wanted to keep trying to instigate something. I looked at my phone:
I Love u b/c of who u r. A person who means the world to me. If i dont get this back i understand. Send this to ppl u DONT regret meeting..
The only thing was, that text had come from L.

I groaned and shook my head, debating whether to turn my phone off entirely. Of course, I didn't, and so a few hours later, when I still hadn't responded to her pitying text earlier, the lady was at it again:
It's okay... I knew you never loved me.
How rich.

I was growing increasingly certain that this little eight-month whatever-the-fuck-you-call-it was truly near its end. K came by work to pick me up so we could head out with my co-workers this time, the ones she used to work with.

I was ready to put the whole episode behind me for the night when the phone began buzzing again at the bar. I figured it was much too late for my lady to be texting me, unless I had really upset her. Of course, it wasn't my lady but L again. I kept my only reply brief, saying I was out with K at a bar in Elgin. But L kept the texts coming, finally sending me one that I couldn't quite decide was either scary or a sad attempt at humor:
Hey,don't ignore me i might go all fatal attraction ur ass! Lol! :-*
What I think L would be most upset by is that I have no intention of sleeping with her. I don't care if she's got an open marriage or not; she's still married, and that's just not my cup of tea. Besides, if my bitterness toward my on-again/off-again lady is going to result in me hopping into bed with anybody, it wasn't going to be K or L; it was going to be their friend H.

But I never got H's number. Right now, I'm actually starting to wonder how well B. Doggy's bet is treating him. Maybe a month away from this shit could do me some good.
Written by D. Rock at 11:37:00 PM 0 comments
Tags: ,

Friday, January 09, 2009

Divisional Playoff Picks

From my end, Atlanta was sort of a shocking disappointment last weekend. In retrospect, it was both of my higher confidence games that were wrong, but it's just too hard for me to take the Cardinals seriously and most everyone had the Colts winning that game last week.

Still, here's a look at how everyone else did last week:


And here's how I've got this weekend breaking down:


Carolina Panthers over Arizona Cardinals

Last week, the Cardinals got the benefit of a home crowd that I hadn't really anticipated being a factor against Atlanta, another dome team.

Carolina's a much tougher team than the Falcons and is probably already looking forward to another shot at the Giants in New York for the NFC Championship.

Pittsburgh Steelers over San Diego Chargers

The NFL is dying for a Giants-Steelers Super Bowl; it would be a cash cow.

The Chargers could indeed be a team peaking at the right time. But I think the Steelers can overcome any problems with Big Ben and shut down the Chargers in Pittsbugh.

Baltimore Ravens over Tennessee Titans

As I mentioned recently, the Ravens officially became "my boys" last Friday night. It really was quite a hoot, because last time we did one of these lottery pools, I got whatever was left and for the NBA Playoffs, I landed the Wizards. Yuck.

But this time around, I feel quite differently. Derrick Mason would relish the chance to have a big game.

Philadelphia Eagles over New York Giants

I kept going back and forth over this, but this actually seems like the way I can see the Giants going out this year. They looked unstoppable for so much of the year and can certainly still be formidable without Plaxico, but I'll stand by what I said earlier this week and go with Philly simply because they're the hotter team right now.
Written by D. Rock at 9:18:00 AM 0 comments
Tags: ,

Friday, January 02, 2009

Wild Card Picks

I'll be citing the picks of the experts at Yahoo! and ESPN that I compared myself to during the regular season. This being the playoffs, I'm presenting my picks in descending order of confidence, as I did last year. I'm not assigning some silly point value or anything in the post-season, just doing a simple, straight-up right/wrong count, so the order doesn't really do anything other than allow me to try and point out I wasn't totally confident in a prediction should I be wrong.

Sort of.

Anyway, here's the four games this weekend:


Atlanta Falcons over Arizona Cardinals
I'll stand by my earlier assertion that the Falcons are the losers in the NFC Championship. I know it's kind of a silly little spot to see them ending up, but I've been dismissing the Cards all year, seeing as how worthless the NFC West is. I'm not terribly confident about how the Falcons' defense will slow down Arizona, but they've managed to keep opponents low on the scoring all year. If they can hold the Cardinals to field goals while establishing their very capable running game, they should be well on their way to a convincing victory.

Indianapolis Colts over San Diego Chargers
San Diego's pass defense is second-to-last in the league, and the Colts are going to have to rely on a big game from Peyton. And I'll take relying on a big game from Manning over relying on a big game from LT, who has only recently regained some semblance of the back he's been hyped as.



Philadelphia Eagles over Minnesota Vikings
I've got a hard time trusting Philly (I mean, c'mon ... they tied Cincinnati), but one interception aside, Donovan McNabb hasn't erred ever since he was benched. The Eagles, as a team, looked impressive against Dallas, while you already have to be speculating about whether Minnesota sticks to one quarterback for the entire game.


Baltimore Ravens over Miami Dolphins
I'll probably still be sporting the Ricky Williams jersey on Sunday, but Ray Lewis has been unbelievable this season and the Ravens defense would be getting a lot more hype if the equally stellar squad in Pittsburgh hadn't won the division. It's not unreasonable to think Baltimore could make it all the way to the Super Bowl.
Written by D. Rock at 9:59:00 PM 0 comments
Tags: ,
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)