The envelope, please

I'm presenting these in descending order of confidence, as I did the only other year I got my predictions up on BMC. And I'm using a point system (My top bet is worth 24 points, second most confident is worth 23, so on) to compel myself to do this each year. According to that newly created point system, my score in 2006 (when I got 17 of 24 correct) was 248 out of a possible 325 300. This year, I'm adding a few comments as well. So, lucky you.

1. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
—Not really much debate about this one, and it's not as though anybody's saying the guy doesn't deserve it (I happened to see Ben Mankiewicz on the newly dumbed-down version of "At the Movies" actually said he would have voted for Josh Brolin). While I wasn't as enthusiastic about "The Dark Knight" as some friends (I thought Newsweek's David Ansen put it best: "You may emerge more exhausted than elated."), I'm not foolish enough to deny Ledger deserves every bit of praise he's gotten for this. And as somebody else put it, would any of the other four nominees want to accept this award instead?
2. BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: "WALL-E"
—Like "Dark Knight," another film where it seems everybody is a bigger fan than myself (certainly enjoyed it, but I guess I still prefer either "Toy Story" when we're talking Pixar flicks). Still, of the three nominees, "WALL-E" was realistically being talked about as a possible Best Picture nominee.

3. BEST PICTURE: "Slumdog Millionaire"
—I thought a few months ago that "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" was being hyped as the certain winner and certainly sounded like the favorite. But "Slumdog" has won just about every other award and seems destined to grab one last honor.

4. BEST DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
—If the award was being used as some sort of way for voters to honor a director they'd overlooked in years past, perhaps we'd be talking about a possible upset. But that's not the case this year and there's little reason to believe that Director and Picture go hand-in-hand (as they should, of course).

5. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire"
—None of the other nominees has a strong, competing buzz about them to derail the "Slumdog" train.
6. BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: "Man on Wire"
—I really wanted to see "Trouble the Water" this year, but missed my opportunity to catch it when it was in Chicago. I'd intended to do that, and just like "Dear Zachary" or "Religulous," it appears I'll be catching all those on DVD instead. As for what actually is nominated, "Man on Wire" is the popular favorite. But as Ebert notes in his predictions this year, this is a category where voters are required to have seen all the nominated films. I can't recall a specific example off the top of my head, but seem to recall that upsets not only can, but have happened here.
7. BEST ACTRESS: Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
—Well, just look at the cover of the new Time. Seriously though, Winslet's toughest competition comes from Meryl Streep, nominated for the 15th time. While Streep did win the SAG this year, Winslet won there for "The Reader" as a supporting actress. And Streep's already won twice while Winslet's been nominated six times now without a win. There's been some rumbling about a possible Melissa Leo upset for "Frozen River," but I wouldn't count on it.

8. BEST FILM EDITING: "Slumdog Millionaire"
—Chris Dickens has already picked up a couple honors and appears poised to benefit from the "Slumdog" ride to the stage.
9. BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: "Slumdog Millionaire"
—Anthony Dod Mantle also gets to ride the "Slumdog" wave.

10. BEST MAKEUP: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
—Because "Benjamin Button" needs to win something, I guess ...
11. BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
—... or two things.
12. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: "Slumdog Millionaire"
—The "Slumdog" train rolls on.

13. BEST SOUND MIXING: "The Dark Knight"
—Heath Ledger aside, the sound awards will provide voters an easy way to atone for the perceived Best Picture snub.
14. BEST SOUND EDITING: "The Dark Knight"
—Different people accepting, but goes along with the aforementioned audio honor.
15. BEST ART DIRECTION: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
—Another possible honor for "Benjamin Button," the only film with a Best Picture nod in this group of nominees.
16. BEST COSTUME DESIGN: "The Duchess"
—No clue what the film's about, but just judging by the pictures I've seen, it seems like a safe bet.
17. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penélope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
—For one reason or another, I have a hard time accepting this. But I don't feel comfortable picking any other nominee in Cruz's place. (Where, by the way, is Rosemarie DeWitt in all this? I notice she won a Skandie, so at least it's not just me still being too high on "Rachel Getting Married" I assume.) While Ebert has picked Viola Davis, it also seems Amy Adams has received a nice little buzz, but you have to figure they'll split the vote for "Doubt" fans. Others are speculating Taraji P. Henson has a shot, although I've only seen one person actually pick her. And I've certainly got a soft spot for Marisa Tomei, although she's already won before and that one perceived upset (I picked her that year ... and so did Bill O'Reilly, so I still don't know what those people are talking about) will probably be deemed too recent. I'm tempted to pick Tomei, but in this category I'll opt to go with the favorite.

18. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Dustin Lance Black, "Milk"
—The film has many supporters and since it's unlikely to win Best Picture, any other major awards it can pick up are kind of a way of making up for that. "WALL-E" wouldn't be an entire shock either, and there's even a reasonable chance that "In Bruges" could pull off an upset.
19. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: "Waltz with Bashir"
—Since the Israeli film's animated style has created much of the attention it has gotten, I'll go with that. The French documentary "The Class" is a formidable contender as well.
20. BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "Down to Earth," "WALL-E"
—"Jai Ho" seems the likelier of the two "Slumdog" selections here, but the third nominee is a Peter Gabriel tune. On a side note, where the hell is Springsteen?
21. BEST ACTOR: Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"
—I've been going back and forth about this one for weeks and this award is undoubtedly the closest contest of the evening. Sean Penn is certainly the favorite, but he did win just a few years back. And while the role allows him to play a real-life person (always good for votes), I simply think a combonation of the physical toll Rourke took on himself in "The Wrestler" and the role's correlation to his own life in Hollywood is going to make for an acceptance speech that most voters would like to see.

22. BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM: "Presto"
—Hey! I actually saw this one! Surely that must mean something!*

23. BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: "The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306"
—Ah, and so we've arrived at those awards we're all clueless about. Here's what everybody else is picking, so why not tag along?
24. BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM: "Spielzeugland" ("Toyland")
—Again, everybody else's popular favorite.

Reaction and grand totals, as always, forthcoming.

* - Does not actually mean anything.

UPDATE: I wasn't in any Oscar pools this year and it's not as though they were done in a confidence manner anyway, but that was pretty good that I didn't miss one until my 13th most confident pick.

I was working last night, but did manage to see almost all of the winners being announced. Still, I missed most of the "show" aspects, you could say, but I'm sure I'll see the highlights pop up around this here internets. Most of us wanted Mickey Rourke to win last night, but I heard his acceptance speech for an Independent Spirit Award on the radio. Pretty good stuff.

Overall, my score ended up being 293 268 (18 out of 24), so a decidedly "scoring" improvement, although the overall correct number of predictions this year wasn't a particularly striking total. Some people did better.

Here, there, everywhere

See, there's going to be a day when I actually get to sit down and organize all these silly little things I feel I'm somewhat obligated to update every single time I sit down at the computer. But these days, I'm once again in my "job first" mentality. I know, I know ... "But D. Rock, looking for a bigger job seems like something you've always been doing and always will be doing for the rest of your life. Thanks for finally coming to that realization and welcome to the club."

So anywho, I'm taking about five minutes out here before I go back to craigslist and where ever else it is that my whimsy fances tonight. Wish me luck, but in the meantime, here's a few short thoughts ... let me know what to elaborate on:

• The Oscars are next Sunday. I still have not seen any of the five films nominated for Best Picture, and what's more, I have no real rooting interest in the show. The best film I saw last year was Forgetting Sarah Marshall, and I'm pretty sure that's not up for anything. That said, I didn't even request the evening off work and I typically close on Sunday nights, so I'm guessing that I'm just going to be hoping that people put the best clips from the actual show online. I don't hear about anybody doing any pools this year either, so it's not sounding like too many friends are planning on a party this year (which actually has seemingly been the story ever since the show got moved up a month). All in all, I'll throw up my predictions, for whatever they're worth, just to say I did, but in all honesty, really haven't had less interest in the broadcast in as long as I can remember. Perhaps if they raise Heth Ledger from the dead to accept his Best Supporting Actor award ...
• I believe my final score for playoff predictions with my technically correct pick of the Steelers ("I'm sorry, you said something about somebody getting 'killed,' did you?"), I went 6-5, which is acceptable and somewhat amazingly only one game worse than last year's record. I didn't have time to go back yet and see what I wrote about Pittsburgh all year, but I'm planning on looking over what I'd been writing every week this season when football previews start coming out in anticipation of next season. I haven't adjusted yet to not having football, but I usually tend to get swept up in March Madness before fully engulfing my fascination with the NBA and NHL Playoffs going into the summer. This year should prove no different, although I promised myself I'd be writing more about my boys in the U.C., and, well ...
• As far as the Blackhawks go, I've been feeling pretty good about the team most of the year and I've caught far, far more of their games this year than I did at this point last season. I feel fairly confident that they will indeed make the playoffs and beyond that, have the talent to defeat their first-round opponent. And while it feels good to be boasting about having such a legitimitely good young core that lives up to what's been hyped, there's just no denying that the veteran squads, the more playoff-experienced teams, will probably capitalize on Blackhawks mistakes—errors, I'm guessing, that will get attributed to their youth.
• The Bulls, on the other hand, have been something of a chore to watch. With the trade deadline approaching, I don't see how you don't say every guy's on the table—except Derrick Rose. And I really don't know how long Vinny truly gets to stick around if something doesn't get accomplished before then. But the newest Bulls trade rumor (these are the types of things we Bulls fans get to constantly participate in and fantasize over ever since the Jordan era ended) involves acquiring Amare Stoudemire from the Phoenix Suns. Needless to say, this move gets an enthusiastic "Hell, Yes!" vote from me (the Bulls would have to part with Drew Gooden, Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Sefolosha, maybe a draft pick or two, possibly Joakim Noah, some guy named Cedric Simmons that I don't even recall ever seeing printed on a Bulls roster this year and probably some money too). Look, the Bulls can probably get in the playoffs this year, but even with a fun, little quick fix like Stoudemire playing with Rose, this team's a million miles from contending for anything. It's still stunning that we were talking about winning the Eastern Conference here a few seasons back, because it hasn't felt like a winning team any time I've turned the Bulls on this season. It's actually kind of heartbreaking.
• And speaking of heartbreak, let me end on this final thought about the only thing that will always, most surely be the one thing more fucked up than my job satisfaction: The lady didn't take too kindly to me having lunch with XgF—or whatever the hell I called her. It was nothing too dramatic, of course, unless you count the fact that that girl even talked to me again. It certainly was fucked up, I tried to explain to the current lady—the one I still only see once a week and seemingly talk about breaking up with every other week or so—that the ex and I hadn't really spoken in a couple of years. And considering all that happened in just the past year alone, well, that's the kind of stuff that, yeah, I guess I could e-mail her about. Or maybe point to a few blog post or something, had I actually typed up some of the trouble I had gotten in, but for the most part I was too scared shitless to even type up how scared I was at the time. But that time's gone now and everything's better ... or getting better, I guess. Still getting organized, cleaning things up.
• OK, lots to do tomorrow.
  

Super Bowl Pick

It's a long story (maybe I'll tell you later ... maybe), but I'm trying to hammer this out from a laptop in scenic DeKalb, IL. Anyway, my otherwise solid season of NFL predicting now concludes with one final game that will determine whether I finish above .500 or not for the post-season.

That said, I'm playing it safe:

Pittsburgh Steelers over Arizona Cardinals

Yeah, I think the Buzzsaw's going to get killed actually. We're talking two touchdown-like margin. But hopefully it turns out to be a close, exciting game instead.

Whatever ... even putting this helmet in here is a pain in the ass. Final thoughts on the NFL season forthcoming ... maybe.