Week Four Picks

While I made a few changes from the picks suggested by the numbers last week, both the suggested list and my actual picks were 12-4. However, had I gone by the suggested list, I would've earned 106 points instead of the 114 I actually earned. Now keeping that in mind, here's how the numbers would suggest I order the picks this week:

• 14—Giants over Chiefs
  
• 13—49ers over Rams
  
• 12—Bears over Lions
• 11—Bengals over Browns
  
• 10—Redskins over Bucs
  
• 9—Vikings over Packers
  
• 8—Chargers over Steelers
  
• 7—Colts over Seahawks
  
• 6—Ravens over Patriots
  
• 5—Saints over Jets
  
• 4—Jaguars over Titans
  
• 3—Texans over Raiders
  
• 2—Cowboys over Broncos
  
• 1—Dolphins over Bills
  

Again, not a terrible list of suggestions, but I saw two picks right away that I'm not agreeing with. So here's how I'll actually be voting this week:

14 points
New York Giants (3-0) over Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)
+27/0 : +56/56/0 : 0/+29

Yeah, no arguing with the numbers on this one.

13 points
Indianapolis Colts (3-0) over Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
+21/0 : +30/19/+11 : +11/+9

Peyton Manning is probably not the best opponent for the league's 26th-ranked pass defense.

12 points
Chicago Bears (2-1) over Detroit Lions (1-2)
+8/-9 : +29/38/-9 : 0/+21

It's gonna' take more than a victory over the Redskins to sell me on picking the Lions this year.

11 points
San Francisco 49ers (2-1) over St. Louis Rams (0-3)
0/-3 : +39/42/-3 : 0/+39

No Frank Gore, no problem against the Rams.

10 points
Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) over Cleveland Browns (0-3)
-6/-17 : +19/36/-17 : 0/+25

The annual Battle of Ohio had me initially thinking this could be a game where the Browns might be capable of an upset, but the combination of Carson Palmer's improved accuracy and Cleveland's 30th-ranked run defense should help the Bengals continue their sudden emergence as a possible playoff team.

9 points
Washington Redskins (1-2) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)
+8/+10 : +42/32/+10 : 0/+34

I'm not terribly thrilled with D.C. after bailing out Detroit last weekend, but if that national humiliation doesn't motivate the team into performing better this week, I don't know what will. The fact that they're playing a team I've openly stated as one that could possibly go this entire year without me picking them once as well as starting a new QB this week helps.

8 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) over San Diego Chargers (2-1)
-4/0 : -1/20/+21 : +21/+3

The Steelers have suffered a couple of unexpected losses the past two weeks, but both of those were on the road. Coming back home should help and Big Ben should shine in the nationally televised game against a San Diego squad that has a few banged-up stars.

7 points
Tennessee Titans (0-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
-14/+8 : -13/15/+2 : -6/+1

Count me in with the chorus saying that there's no way Jeff Fisher allows the Titans to start the season 0-4. And yes, the fact that they're against the always unpredictable Jags makes me nervous.

6 points
New Orleans Saints (3-0) over New York Jets (3-0)
+32/0 : +15/15/0 : 0/-17

Still haven't learned my lesson about picking against the Jets yet, I suppose.

5 points
Minnesota Vikings (3-0) over Green Bay Packers (2-1)
+24/0 : +23/26/-3 : -3/-1

I'd love to see the heavily-hyped game against his former team end up being a total bust for Favre, but Green Bay's dead-last pass defense doesn't strike me as the best source for wishful thinking this week.

4 points
Houston Texans (1-2) over Oakland Raiders (1-2)
-15/-13 : +4/13/-9 : +4/+19

A team I haven't gotten one right about against a team I haven't gotten one wrong about, but this spot on the list has treated me well with the Raiders for the last two weeks.

3 points
Baltimore Ravens (3-0) over New England Patriots (2-1)
+30/0 : +30/18/+12 : +12/0

I initially leaned toward the Pats since the game will be in Foxboro, but I have to believe that the rolling Ravens should be able to outperform a New England team that has still looked a little rusty.

2 points
Denver Broncos (3-0) over Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
+11/-6 : +13/6/+19 : +25/+2

Again, initially leaned the other way but the Broncos' offense has been a surprise so far this year and they're stocked on running backs while Dallas comes into this one hurting at that position.

1 point
Miami Dolphins (0-3) over Buffalo Bills (1-2)
0/+16 : +29/3/+26 : +10/+29

Yeah, the Dolphins lost Chad Pennington and the Wildcat isn't quite the weapon it was when Miami stunned many by winning the AFC East last year—not to mention that Buffalo's getting Marshawn Lynch back to hopefully improve their woeful running game. But after T.O. didn't get a single grab last week, I'm guessing there's going to be a little confusion as the Bills try to figure out a way to keep everybody on their offense happy.

2009-10 NHL Predictions

I knew there were problems as soon as I saw that this had come in the mail. First off, it meant that hockey predictions would have to be squeezed in—right while I'm still momentarily obsessed with my NFL posts each week.

Secondly, there was going to be the actual predictions themselves—and the very prospect that my boys being on the cover of this magazine meant that I might indeed have very good reason to believe it wouldn't just be me being a fanboy for thinking they could get to the Cup this year.

Finally, I did not realize until last night, in fact, that in addition to this fucking announcement about the site of the 2016 Olympics tomorrow that we've had to hear about over and over and over for something like, oh, ever since Mayor Daley woke up one morning and decided he really wanted it—there's going to be Olympic Games smack-dab in the middle of this season in 2010. (At least they're in Vancouver.)

Now I seem to recall enjoying Olympic hockey, so I'm not all against it, but I am somewhat uncertain about the effect this little two-week sideshow is going to cause on certain teams. Still it sounds like this might be the last time it's happening, so more on that later in the year, I guess.

Oh, and my predictions last year hardly offered any commentary (just jerseys—which I'm doing away with in favor of traditional logos), but just glancing at what I did have up, I got two of the six division winners right and correctly named the Eastern Conference Champion—although they, in fact, defeated a team that was most certainly not the Western representative I had expected (Dallas didn't even make the playoffs, but hey, I was the only one that had them, right?). Overall for the regular season, I got 6 of 15 right in the Eastern Conference (2/5 in the Atlantic, 1/5 in the Northeast, 3/5 in the Southeast) and 5 of 15 in the Western Conference (3/5 in the Central, 0/5 in the Northwest, 2/5 in the Pacific), for a pretty measly total of 11 out of 30 correctly predicted finishes.

So there's obviously room for improvement this year. For the record and the sake of future comparison, here's the predictions from the respective experts at ESPN, CBS Sports, Sports Illustrated, and Yahoo's Puck Daddy, broken into three posts (East, West, Stanley Cup). And now here's mine:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic
Philadelphia Flyers

Pittsburgh Penguins

New Jersey Devils

New York Rangers

New York Islanders

Pittsburgh got the Cup last year alright, but the Devils won this division last year and the Flyers went and got Chris Pronger. I would fully expect that the same three teams will be battling it out in the only division that seems like a tough call in the East. While I'm a little curious to see how Ray Emery holds up (mentally moreso than physically), I think Philadelphia has the feeling of playing with an expensive new toy while the Penguins will certainly start slow and New Jersey only offers a new coach (kind of) last year's Devils but without center John Madden (now in Chicago [!]) or right wing Brian Gionta (went to Montreal).

The two Big Apple squads in this division retain the exact same places I had them last year, although the Rangers did make it into the playoffs and could have another shot at getting that seventh or eighth seed as part of another first-round ouster. As for the Islanders, at least top pick John Tavares will give the fans something to look forward to ... in years to come (maybe).

Northeast
Boston Bruins

Buffalo Sabres

Montreal Canadiens

Toronto Maple Leafs

Ottawa Senators

The Bruins are a no-brainer to win this division, but picking even second place feels like choosing from the lesser of evils. Buffalo's health is a concern, there's an awful lot of new faces in Montreal, and Toronto's still a ways away from being a playoff team. Nonetheless, that's the shaky order I'll go with them in, and while Ottawa finally got rid of Danny Heatley, the move is going to be one that causes them to struggle with chemistry throughout much of the season.

Southeast
Washington Capitals

Carolina Hurricanes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Florida Panthers

Atlanta Thrashers

Like Boston, the Capitals are an easy choice to win the division—I could even see them competing with Boston for the top spot in the conference. The Hurricanes should be able to comfortably finish in second, while the final three spots seemingly boil down to which teams can hold it together best. Tampa Bay's going to be hard-pressed to be anywhere near as dysfunctional as last season, but I think they'll be more efficient than either the Panthers or Thrashers, both of whom will be working with little to avoid finishing in the cellar.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central
Chicago Blackhawks

Detroit Red Wings

Columbus Blue Jackets

St. Louis Blues

Nashville Predators

Oh, I toyed with the idea of saying Detroit would find a way to win yet another division title, but that's gotta change one year and the hell if this one doesn't seem like the time to do it. Whatever concerns Chicago has with their goaltender, they're incredibly deep everywhere else on the ice and it most certainly will be kept in mind that home-ice advantage for a possible series against the Red Wings in the playoffs is a must.

Pity the rest of the division, which probably won't garner near as much attention. The Blue Jackets should be able to compete for that final playoff spot, but probably won't get it. St. Louis could surprise some people, but I'm not counting on it. And the Predators are going to have to make some additions during the season if they hope to compete.

Northwest
Vancouver Canucks

Calgary Flames

Minnesota Wild

Edmonton Oilers

Colorado Avalanche

I didn't get a single spot right in this division last year, largely thanks to me giving absolutely no credit to the Vancouver Canucks. (I'd tell you why, but since I added no thoughts to my picks, your guess is probably as good as mine.)

I won't underestimate the Canucks this year in the division—although picking Calgary again was mildly tempting. While that should almost certainly make for an entertaining fight for the top spot, I'm willing to buy that this will be the year the Minnesota Wild also crack into the playoffs despite my concern that signing Martin Havlat could fulfill the frequently injured shoes Marian Gaborik left behind. The Oilers hardly improved from the squad last year that collapsed at the finish and missed the playoffs, while the Avalanche finished last in the division for the first time since they moved to Colorado (which is at least my explanation for predicting they'd be better). I won't be making the same mistake this year.

Pacific
San Jose Sharks

Anaheim Ducks

Dallas Stars

Los Angeles Kings

Phoenix Coyotes

San Jose seems destined to run away with the division, possibly the conference, and then presumably choke immediately upon beginning the playoffs. It's like clockwork.

Anaheim could give a lot of teams trouble in the playoffs, although losing Pronger hurts their regular season chances of winning the Pacific. Dallas should hopefully start a lot stronger and hopefully be able to stay at least a little bit healthier to start the season stronger and resemble more of the team I thought was going to win the Cup last year. I think they can get into the playoffs, but that's about as far as I'll go.

I'm willing to grant some possible surprise factor to the Kings if they can grow up real fast, but I'm certainly not expecting it. If nothing else, they'll finish ahead of Phoenix—if the franchise even still exists at the end of the year.

Opening Round Playoffs
#8 Canadiens over #1 Bruins in 6 games

#2 Capitals over #7 Devils in 7 games

#3 Flyers over #6 Sabres in 5 games

#4 Penguins over #5 Hurricanes in 6 games

#1 Sharks over #8 Wild in 6 games

#2 Blackhawks over #7 Stars in 6 games

#3 Canucks over #6 Flames in 7 games

#5 Ducks over #4 Red Wings in 6 games

Conference Semifinals
#2 Capitals over #8 Canadiens in 4 games

#4 Penguins over #3 Flyers in 6 games

#5 Ducks over #1 Sharks in 6 games

#2 Blackhawks over #3 Canucks in 7 games


Conference Finals
#2 Capitals over #4 Penguins in 7 games

#2 Blackhawks over #5 Ducks in 6 games


Stanley Cup Final
Washington Capitals over Chicago Blackhawks in 6 games

Oh, and F.Y.I. regarding what team's getting how many Stanley Cup picks from the groups I linked to up there before my own picks: San Jose leads the way with four votes; Boston, Washington, Pittsburgh and Chicago all have votes from three experts (although the Blackhawks were also picked to win under Sports Illustrated's "How They'll Finish"—rankings of which I can already verify as impossible since they failed to give the Northwest division champion one of the top three spots that would normally be part of, you know, the rules); Philadelphia and Anaheim each have a pair of votes; and the Vancouver Canucks did get one vote to win it all.

Of course, my primary reason for noting these other predictions is that of the 21 voters I just cited, for once, no expert on those four sites has picked Detroit to win it all this year.