Week 11 Picks

After finishing second for two straight weeks, I suppose that the most logical thing to do would have been to follow the numbers exactly as they came out. After all, had I gone by the actual numbers last week, I would have finished one point higher.

And still finished second.

So, I noted that a large reason for my success has to be the lack of some significant upsets in the past two weeks. That said, I just found myself too tempted to go with a few underdogs this week. So let's see how this goes:

16 points
Carolina Panthers (7-2) over Detroit Lions (0-9)
+37/-7 : +121/139/-18 : -11/+84

No-brainer.

15 points
Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) over Cincinnati Bengals (1-8)
+38/+21 : +99/97/+2 : -19/+61
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This couldn't work out more perfectly: The Eagles are coming off the tough loss to the Giants on Sunday night while the Bengals are probably still hungover from celebrating their first win.

14 points
New York Giants (8-1) over Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
+85/-3 : +80/56/+24 : +27/-5

The Ravens will be tough, but the Giants will be better.

13 points
Tennessee Titans (9-0) over Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5)
+29/-19 : +17/54/-37 : -18/-12

Devoted Titans lover B. Doggy is actually going with the Jags and reminded me today (after my picks had already been sent) of our theory to pick the opposite of what we initially feel Jacksonville will end up doing. That's fair and now I'm quite edgy having 13 points on this. Initially, I was thinking Tennessee would suffer their first loss to the Jets next week.

12 points
Miami Dolphins (5-4) over Oakland Raiders (2-7)
+5/-5 : +45/50/-5 : 0/+40

I was reminded this week of Bill Parcells' track record with quickly turning around some really struggling franchises. What's going on in Miami this season no longer needs to be greeted from me with such a "WTF?!"-type reaction.

11 points
Indianapolis Colts (5-4) over Houston Texans (3-6)
+21/-3 : +58/34/+24 : +27/+37

There's still playoff hopes in Indy.

10 points
Atlanta Falcons (6-3) over Denver Broncos (5-4)
+18/-6 : +18/23/-5 : +1/0

Fact: This is the first time I've picked the Broncos to lose all season.

And it feels great.

9 points
San Francisco 49ers (2-7) over St. Louis Rams (2-7)
+1/+54 : +62/8/+54 : 0/+61

Ugh. You have to feel for the part of the country that gets forced to watch this. Unless Mike Singletary pulls down his pants, of course.

8 points
Chicago Bears (5-4) over Green Bay Packers (4-5)
+2/+9 : +17/2/+15 : +6/+15

As a fan, I'm always second-guessing putting too many points on my team. If the Bears still "get off the bus running," this is the team to do it against.

7 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) over Minnesota Vikings (5-4)
+25/+12 : +35/1/+34 : +22/+10

Refreshing. I felt so dirty having picked the Vikes these past couple weeks.

6 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) over San Diego Chargers (4-5)
+28/-8 : +32/35/-3: +5/+4

Yes, yes, yes. My little formula would indicate I should bank higher on the Steelers, but ... something about the Chargers was making me nervous, games got shuffled around and ultimately I'm sticking with Pittsburgh. San Diego escaping last week didn't exactly win me over.

5 points
New England Patriots (6-3) over New York Jets (6-3)
+17/+1 : +15/27/+42 : +41/-2

A huge game where I just can't go against the home team. The Jets have been looking good, but they're due for a reality check. Brett Favre, welcome to Boston.

4 points
Dallas Cowboys (5-4) over Washington Redskins (6-3)
+1/-1 : -3/10/+7 : +8/-4

It's a coin flip for many, I'm sure. My gut's telling me the Cowboys come out of this one and the NFC East becomes a clusterfuck competing with the South for those two wild card spots.

3 points
Cleveland Browns (3-6) over Buffalo Bills (5-4)
-8/+17 : -21/49/+28 : +11/-13

Cleveland's probably going to win another game sooner or later, and they couldn't have picked a better time to run into the Bills—who are coming off of three weeks in which they got to lose to all three of their division rivals.

2 points
Seattle Seahawks (2-7) over Arizona Cardinals (6-3)
+15/+1 : 0/12/+12 : +11/-15

C'mon, 12th man.

1 point
Kansas City Chiefs (1-8) over New Orleans Saints (4-5)
-13/+51 : +4/65/+69: +18/+17

After the three straight close losses, the Chiefs get to host a Saints team that hasn't won on the road yet this season.