So here's my newest theory after eight weeks: Bet low on the late games. I'm sure I will find some sort of actual mathematical formula that justifies this little thing I do every week by about, oh, Week 17 to secure a first-place finish. (Actually, that's a lie; I'm probably going to finish second ... twice.)Obviously, that emphasis was added in hindsight. But when I typed that, it was meant to be a playful stab at my own inability to emerge from these pools with a first-place finish.
Well, of course, I did create a mathematical formula. And it paid off again last week as I went 12-2 and finished in second place (out of 24) for the second consecutive week. I earned a season-high 98 points and moved up into fourth for the year with 777 points. And for the season, my 92-52 (.639) record is fairly solid, putting me ahead of most of the crowd at Yahoo! and ESPN.
While I'd like to boast that my formula has proved quite effective, it's hard to ignore that I've benefited from two weeks without too many major upsets (Cincinnati defeating Jacksonville was admittedly an upset, but I actually picked that). I'll offer more thoughts when I put up my picks and decide whether to go with the numbers or not.
For now, I have only two teams in the league that have cost me more points than they've earned me:
1. (2) NEW YORK GIANTS- Last week: Beat Philadelphia, 36-31 (+11)
- Actual Record: 8-1
- My predicted record: 8-1
- Points scored for me with wins: 97
- Points scored for me with losses: 0
- Points taken from me with wins: 3
- Points taken from me with losses: 12
- Plus/Minus: +82
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They went into both of the NFL's Pennsylvania cities and found time to pound the Cowboys at home in between, so that whole "soft schedule" is over. We're just going to have to deal with the fact that they're every bit as good as advertised and there's little reason to not pick them every week here on out.
2. (1) DETROIT LIONS- Last week: Lost to Jacksonville, 38-14 (-1)
- Actual Record: 0-9
- My predicted record: 3-6
- Points scored for me with wins: 0
- Points scored for me with losses: 84
- Points taken from me with wins: 0
- Points taken from me with losses: 11
- Plus/Minus: +73
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Next game I might possibly pick them to win: the final game of three straight at home, against the Vikings on December 7. Until then, misery and shame likely to be the Monday morning feeling in Motown.
3. (3) HOUSTON TEXANS- Last week: Lost to Baltimore, 41-13 (+7)
- Actual Record: 3-6
- My predicted record: 4-5
- Points scored for me with wins: 29
- Points scored for me with losses: 37
- Points taken from me with wins: 0
- Points taken from me with losses: 2
- Plus/Minus: +64
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
It's going to be difficult to rebound from a bad, bad loss to Baltimore and face the still-kicking Colts in Indy.
4. (5) ST. LOUIS RAMS- Last week: Lost to New York Jets, 47-3 (+14)
- Actual Record: 2-7
- My predicted record: 0-9
- Points scored for me with wins: 0
- Points scored for me with losses: 83
- Points taken from me with wins: 22
- Points taken from me with losses: 0
- Plus/Minus: +61
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Dead last in points allowed and only two spots from the bottom in points scored. Haslett is talking about making changes, but I don't know that anything will make enough difference.
5. (4) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Last week: Lost to New York Giants, 36-31 (+11)
- Actual Record: 5-4
- My predicted record: 4-5
- Points scored for me with wins: 38
- Points scored for me with losses: 22
- Points taken from me with wins: 1
- Points taken from me with losses: 0
- Plus/Minus: +59
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Nothing should ease the pain of losing the Sunday night game quite like getting a trip to Cincinnati the following weekend for an easy win.
6. (6) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- Last week: Lost to Arizona, 29-24 (+12)
- Actual Record: 2-7
- My predicted record: 2-7
- Points scored for me with wins: 11
- Points scored for me with losses: 57
- Points taken from me with wins: 3
- Points taken from me with losses: 10
- Plus/Minus: +55
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Things really don't look good when Mike Singletary follows up a pretty bad debut by throwing even more people from the team under the bus.
7. (9) ARIZONA CARDINALS- Last week: Beat San Francisco, 29-24 (+12)
- Actual Record: 6-3
- My predicted record: 4-5
- Points scored for me with wins: 37
- Points scored for me with losses: 25
- Points taken from me with wins: 16
- Points taken from me with losses: 0
- Plus/Minus: +46
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They tried valiantly to give the 49ers that game on Monday night. Alas, they're probably the worst of the 6-3 teams.
8. (7) CINCINNATI BENGALS- Last week: BYE
- Actual Record: 1-8
- My predicted record: 3-6
- Points scored for me with wins: 1
- Points scored for me with losses: 61
- Points taken from me with wins: 0
- Points taken from me with losses: 20
- Plus/Minus: +42
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
At least they got to celebrate a win with the week off.
9. (13) OAKLAND RAIDERS- Last week: Lost to Carolina, 17-6 (+13)
- Actual Record: 2-7
- My predicted record: 0-9
- Points scored for me with wins: 0
- Points scored for me with losses: 65
- Points taken from me with wins: 25
- Points taken from me with losses: 0
- Plus/Minus: +40
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
I guess the upshot if you're a Raiders fan is that your team only lost by 11 points last week. They could have worse cities to go to in the next couple of weeks than Miami and Denver, but I'm not expecting much.
10. (16) NEW YORK JETS- Last week: Beat Buffalo, 47-3 (+14)
- Actual Record: 6-3
- My predicted record: 6-3
- Points scored for me with wins: 53
- Points scored for me with losses: 5
- Points taken from me with wins: 7
- Points taken from me with losses: 12
- Plus/Minus: +39
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They rebounded quite nicely from that loss to Oakland, but the next two weeks are going to be pretty tough (at New England and at Tennessee).
11. (11) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Last week: Lost to San Diego, 30-27 (+8)
- Actual Record: 1-8
- My predicted record: 1-8
- Points scored for me with wins: 0
- Points scored for me with losses: 64
- Points taken from me with wins: 13
- Points taken from me with losses: 13
- Plus/Minus: +38
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
In the last three weeks, they've lost by four, three and one point. With the next two games at home, I'm thinking they'll be an upset pick one of those weeks.
12. (8) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Last week: BYE
- Actual Record: 6-3
- My predicted record: 5-4
- Points scored for me with wins: 33
- Points scored for me with losses: 21
- Points taken from me with wins: 9
- Points taken from me with losses: 8
- Plus/Minus: +37
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They've been fairly solid up until now and they'll be getting "Cadillac" back too.
13. (13) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS- Last week: Lost to Miami, 21-19 (+9)
- Actual Record: 2-7
- My predicted record: 3-6
- Points scored for me with wins: 10
- Points scored for me with losses: 47
- Points taken from me with wins: 10
- Points taken from me with losses: 11
- Plus/Minus: +36
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Much like the Chiefs, I'm tempted by their upcoming home game against a shaky team following a couple of close losses.
14. (10) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Last week: Lost to Atlanta, 34-20 (+4)
- Actual Record: 4-5
- My predicted record: 6-3
- Points scored for me with wins: 35
- Points scored for me with losses: 17
- Points taken from me with wins: 0
- Points taken from me with losses: 17
- Plus/Minus: +35
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They're second to none through the air, but there's still no running game and the defense is problematic, to say the least.
15. (12) MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Last week: Beat Green Bay, 28-21 (+3)
- Actual Record: 5-4
- My predicted record: 3-6
- Points scored for me with wins: 22
- Points scored for me with losses: 26
- Points taken from me with wins: 16
- Points taken from me with losses: 0
- Plus/Minus: +32
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They got the two wins at home they needed coming out of their bye week, but now they've got two straight weeks in Florida. That could kill anybody.
16. (19) CAROLINA PANTHERS- Last week: Beat Oakland, 17-6 (+13)
- Actual Record: 6-3
- My predicted record: 5-4
- Points scored for me with wins: 45
- Points scored for me with losses: 4
- Points taken from me with wins: 11
- Points taken from me with losses: 8
- Plus/Minus: +30
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
I'm grateful they put my use of them for a suicide pick to good use, but a little more convincing of a victory would have been nice.
17. (21) BALTIMORE RAVENS- Last week: Beat Houston, 41-13 (+7)
- Actual Record: 6-3
- My predicted record: 4-5
- Points scored for me with wins: 31
- Points scored for me with losses: 11
- Points taken from me with wins: 16
- Points taken from me with losses: 4
- Plus/Minus: +22
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They're white-hot, which is too bad, because now they have to play the Giants.
18. (18) GREEN BAY PACKERS- Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 28-27 (+3)
- Actual Record: 4-5
- My predicted record: 5-4
- Points scored for me with wins: 15
- Points scored for me with losses: 20
- Points taken from me with wins: 5
- Points taken from me with losses: 9
- Plus/Minus: +21
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Their defense against the run needs to improve right away or the cheeseheads will be in for a long second half to the season.
19. (15) PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Last week: Lost to Indianapolis, 24-20 (-6)
- Actual Record: 6-3
- My predicted record: 7-2
- Points scored for me with wins: 38
- Points scored for me with losses: 0
- Points taken from me with wins: 8
- Points taken from me with losses: 10
- Plus/Minus: +20
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
It's been an unfortunate thing, watching them slide and all. The health of Big Ben is obviously a concern.
20. (17) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Last week: Beat New England, 18-15 (+4)
- Actual Record: 5-4
- My predicted record: 7-2
- Points scored for me with wins: 33
- Points scored for me with losses: 3
- Points taken from me with wins: 6
- Points taken from me with losses: 12
- Plus/Minus: +18
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
I guess the playoffs are still possible, but I'm not quite ready to buy ... yet.
20. (20) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Last week: Beat Buffalo, 20-10 (+2)
- Actual Record: 6-3
- My predicted record: 7-2
- Points scored for me with wins: 34
- Points scored for me with losses: 4
- Points taken from me with wins: 3
- Points taken from me with losses: 17
- Plus/Minus: +18
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
I knew that the loss of Tom Brady to injury would only mean that the Patriots wouldn't have another undefeated season. This week, they'll have the opportunity to take sole possession of the AFC East.
22. (22) ATLANTA FALCONS- Last week: Beat New Orleans, 34-20 (+4)
- Actual Record: 6-3
- My predicted record: 3-6
- Points scored for me with wins: 18
- Points scored for me with losses: 19
- Points taken from me with wins: 25
- Points taken from me with losses: 0
- Plus/Minus: +12
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
The three straight games at home got off to a good start last week and Denver should be a decent warm-up for when Carolina comes to town the following week.
23. (25) CHICAGO BEARS- Last week: Lost to Tennessee, 21-14 (+10)
- Actual Record: 5-4
- My predicted record: 7-2
- Points scored for me with wins: 24
- Points scored for me with losses: 10
- Points taken from me with wins: 1
- Points taken from me with losses: 22
- Plus/Minus: +11
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
It's great to have them out of the bottom of the rankings. Making my pick against them last week worth 10 points doesn't rescind my fandom, does it? Of course not.
24. (27) TENNESSEE TITANS- Last week: Beat Chicago, 21-14 (+10)
- Actual Record: 9-0
- My predicted record: 4-5
- Points scored for me with wins: 29
- Points scored for me with losses: 0
- Points taken from me with wins: 19
- Points taken from me with losses: 0
- Plus/Minus: +10
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Still no comment.
25. (23) CLEVELAND BROWNS- Last week: Lost to Denver, 34-30 (+5)
- Actual Record: 3-6
- My predicted record: 2-7
- Points scored for me with wins: 0
- Points scored for me with losses: 38
- Points taken from me with wins: 21
- Points taken from me with losses: 8
- Plus/Minus: +9
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Ah ... Cleveland.
25. (25) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS- Last week: Beat Kansas City, 20-19 (+8)
- Actual Record: 4-5
- My predicted record: 5-4
- Points scored for me with wins: 19
- Points scored for me with losses: 6
- Points taken from me with wins: 2
- Points taken from me with losses: 14
- Plus/Minus: +9
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
This the fourth straight week they've been ranked 25th. What does that mean, you ask? The hell if I know.
It's actually about the only thing that I do know for sure about this team.
27. (23) WASHINGTON REDSKINS- Last week: BYE
- Actual Record: 6-3
- My predicted record: 6-3
- Points scored for me with wins: 27
- Points scored for me with losses: 16
- Points taken from me with wins: 20
- Points taken from me with losses: 19
- Plus/Minus: +4
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
You'd figure the week off would really help ... until you remember that they'll be playing the Cowboys ... who also had a week off.
28. (29) DENVER BRONCOS- Last week: Beat Cleveland, 34-30 (+5)
- Actual Record: 5-4
- My predicted record: 9-0
- Points scored for me with wins: 26
- Points scored for me with losses: 0
- Points taken from me with wins: 0
- Points taken from me with losses: 25
- Plus/Minus: +1
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Will bringing in Tatum Bell justify the pattern I've formed of never picking against them?
29. (27) DALLAS COWBOYS- Last week: BYE
- Actual Record: 5-4
- My predicted record: 6-3
- Points scored for me with wins: 31
- Points scored for me with losses: 13
- Points taken from me with wins: 14
- Points taken from me with losses: 30
- Plus/Minus: EVEN
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Tony Romo can't come back soon enough.
29. (31) MIAMI DOLPHINS- Last week: Beat Seattle, 21-19 (+9)
- Actual Record: 5-4
- My predicted record: 2-7
- Points scored for me with wins: 9
- Points scored for me with losses: 27
- Points taken from me with wins: 32
- Points taken from me with losses: 4
- Plus/Minus: EVEN
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Should I be concerned yet? The Miami Dolphins have now won three games in a row!
31. (29) BUFFALO BILLS- Last week: Lost to New England, 20-10 (+2)
- Actual Record: 5-4
- My predicted record: 6-3
- Points scored for me with wins: 28
- Points scored for me with losses: 2
- Points taken from me with wins: 15
- Points taken from me with losses: 17
- Plus/Minus: -2
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Three straight games against their division rivals, and they lost all three. That can't bode well.
32. (32) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Last week: Beat Detroit, 38-14 (-1)
- Actual Record: 4-5
- My predicted record: 5-4
- Points scored for me with wins: 3
- Points scored for me with losses: 1
- Points taken from me with wins: 13
- Points taken from me with losses: 21
- Plus/Minus: -30
- "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
I seemingly hate them less by putting less faith in them. So far, so good.
16-point games: 2-0
15-point games: 2-1
14-point games: 8-1
13-point games: 8-2
12-point games: 8-2
11-point games: 8-2
10-point games: 8-2
9-point games: 6-4
8-point games: 5-5
7-point games: 5-5
6-point games: 5-5
5-point games: 3-7
4-point games: 7-3
3-point games: 5-5
2-point games: 6-4
1-point games: 6-4
15-point games: 2-1
14-point games: 8-1
13-point games: 8-2
12-point games: 8-2
11-point games: 8-2
10-point games: 8-2
9-point games: 6-4
8-point games: 5-5
7-point games: 5-5
6-point games: 5-5
5-point games: 3-7
4-point games: 7-3
3-point games: 5-5
2-point games: 6-4
1-point games: 6-4
No comments:
Post a Comment