Week 12 Picks

Once again, had I just gone with the numbers as my little formula laid them out last week, I would have had a higher point total (101, as opposed to the 95 I actually scored). But once again, that hardly would've affected where I finished.

All of that considered, there was only one game this week that I decided to change. I've decided (for the moment, at least) that it's probably best to play it safe if I'm hoping to finish first for the year.

So, while I cranked out the numbers and made only that one change, that doesn't mean there aren't some other games I wasn't tempted to change as well:

16 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) over Detroit Lions (0-10)
+32/+12 : +132/131/+1 : -11/+100

I don't know if the Lions will ever not be the 16-point game the rest of the season.

15 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) over Cincinnati Bengals (1-8-1)
+34/-8 : +80/107/-27 : -19/+46

And if Detroit's in the 16-pointer, then the Bengals have to be the 15-pointer, of course.

14 points
New York Giants (9-1) over Arizona Cardinals (7-3)
+99/-3 : +106/72/+34 : +37/+7

The Cardinals are better than most opponents the Giants have been thumping this year, but they're still outmatched here.

13 points
Denver Broncos (6-4) over Oakland Raiders (2-8)
+1/-10 : +53/63/-10 : 0/+52

I'm a little edgy about the Broncos, but the game is in Denver and the Raiders still suck.

So, no over-analysis necessary.

12 points
Chicago Bears (5-5) over St. Louis Rams (2-8)
-6/+9 : +64/55/+9 : 0/+70

While putting double-digits on the Bears is slightly daunting, there's no denying that St. Louis has looked pretty dreadful since the two games they won way back when.

11 points
Dallas Cowboys (6-4) over San Francisco 49ers (3-7)
+5/-1 : +59/50/+9 : +10/+54

Dallas is still fighting for a playoff berth, while San Fran is still somewhat of a mess.

10 points
Washington Redskins (6-4) over Seattle Seahawks (2-8)
+8/0 : +45/48/-3 : -3/+37

A real upset temptation, but I picked Seattle last week to no avail and I think I'm through giving them more credit than they've earned.

9 points
Carolina Panthers (8-2) over Atlanta Falcons (6-4)
+53/-7 : +47/46/+1 : +8/-6

About as safe as I can play it on an NFC South battle that could be hugely entertaining. Already foreseeing myself saying, "I was going to pick ATL, Georgia ..."

8 points
Indianapolis Colts (6-4) over San Diego Chargers (4-6)
+32/-3 : +42/40/+2 : +5/+10

After it's over, we'll have a better idea of where these teams are going. But heading into it, there's reason to doubt both teams. I just happen to be hating on the Chargers more, I guess.

7 points
Minnesota Vikings (5-5) over Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6)
+22/+17 : +23/24/-1 : -18/+1

Ugh. Really didn't want to pick either team, but there's obviously six other games that I'm not keen on either. And the Jags did earn me some pretty big points last week, so perhaps they're finally coming around.

6 points
Baltimore Ravens (6-4) over Philadelphia Eagles (5-4-1)
+27/+9 : +48/16/+32 : +23/+21

If the Eagles couldn't even beat the Bengals, they're not going to fare too much better in Baltimore.

5 points
Tennessee Titans (10-0) over New York Jets (7-3)
+42/-19 : +35/13/+22 : +41/-7

It's bound to be the hugely popular week to finally pick a Tennessee loss, but I've already tried that five times this season and don't feel like tempting fate any further.

4 points
Miami Dolphins (6-4) over New England Patriots (6-4)
+17/-5 : +18/11/+7 : +12/+1

"Is there room on this here Miami bandwagon for me, son?"

3 points
Houston Texans (3-7) over Cleveland Browns (4-6)
+27/+48 : +44/1/+43 : -5/+17

The first of two games where the scenarios are separated by a single point. In this case, Houston's been better to me this year and still strikes me as a team capable of finishing strong and causing announcers to talk about looking out for them next year.

2 points
Green Bay Packers (5-5) over New Orleans Saints (5-5)
+6/+7 : +24/1/+23 : +18/+16

"Tails!"

1 point
Kansas City Chiefs (1-9) over Buffalo Bills (5-5)
-14/+51 : -24/86/+62: +11/-10

This might be your last chance, K.C.