Week 13 Picks

I've probably said time and time again how one of these weeks I was just going to take the numbers and go with them—whatever they said.

Well, guess what?

This week is that week.

Now, sure, there's a few games I think I would have liked to shift around. And there's even one I had to really think about changing. But after I finished adding up all the scenarios and re-organizing the picks, I thought that if I was going to pull this test any week, it should be this week.

As a result, here's what I came out with:

16 points
Tennessee Titans (10-1) over Detroit Lions (0-11)
+37/-19 : +153/183/-30 : -11/+116

Whomever is playing the Lions = automatic 16-pointer.

15 points
Baltimore Ravens (7-4) over Cincinnati Bengals (1-9-1)
+33/+9 : +94/104/-10 : -19/+61

Betting big against the Bengals is another productive habit.

14 points
New York Giants (10-1) over Washington Redskins (7-4)
+113/-3 : +113/98/+15 : +18/0

I respect the Redskins enough to know this pick makes me wince. But realistically, the Giants haven't made me sweat too much this season.

13 points
Miami Dolphins (6-5) over St. Louis Rams (2-9)
+13/-5 : +95/90/-5 : 0/+82

Not thrilled it's in St. Louis, but considering the football team that's calling the place "home," I don't see Miami having a problem.

12 points
Buffalo Bills (6-5) over San Francisco 49ers (3-8)
+11/-11 : +76/77/-1 : +10/+65

You can never have enough NFC West opponents on your schedule.

11 points
Indianapolis Colts (7-4) over Cleveland Browns (4-7)
+40/-3 : +60/68/-8 : -5/+20

The Colts are rolling now and aren't likely to stumble against the hapless Browns.

10 points
Dallas Cowboys (7-4) over Seattle Seahawks (2-9)
+16/-1 : +63/67/-4 : -3/+47

Texas was not the spot in the nation that the Seahawks needed to be this weekend.

9 points
New York Jets (8-3) over Denver Broncos (6-5)
+41/-12 : +31/55/-24 : -12/-10

Now that the Broncos have taken Jacksonville's spot at the bottom of my points-earners, I'm somewhat concerned they'll pull one out. But the Jets have simply come together and their victory over Tennessee quieted most of their skeptics.

8 points
Carolina Panthers (8-3) over Green Bay Packers (5-6)
+44/-7 : +51/54/-3 : +4/+7

Many people have picked Green Bay, so perhaps this one's the "sleeper" for the week.

7 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) over New England Patriots (7-4)
+49/-8 : +46/42/+4 : +12/-3

An awful lot of points on what could be an awfully close game.

6 points
Atlanta Falcons (7-4) over San Diego Chargers (4-7)
+8/-15 : +26/36/-10 : +5/+18

Part of me still assumes the Chargers will break out of their funk, but that window seems like it might have already closed.

5 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) over New Orleans Saints (6-5)
+48/+12 : +62/32/+30 : +18/+14

The Bucs are simply the better team. (Yes, should've been higher.)

4 points
Oakland Raiders (3-8) over Kansas City Chiefs (1-10)
0/+39 : +51/27/+24 : -15/+51

Ladies and gentleman, the very first time I've picked the Raiders to win this season.

3 points
Arizona Cardinals (7-4) over Philadelphia Eagles (5-5-1)
+37/+21 : +64/20/+44 : +23/+27

While it's certainly theirs to lose, the Cards still want to wrap up that division as soon as they can.

2 points
Minnesota Vikings (6-5) over Chicago Bears (6-5)
+29/+17 : +38/15/+23 : +6/+9

I want to believe the better Bears show up on Sunday night, but I instead foresee myself openly whining about the repeated Viking sound effect in that stupid dome every time the team gets a first down. (I'm already gritting my teeth just thinking about it.)

At least I can wear my Berrian jersey on Sunday.

1 point
Houston Texans (4-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7)
+30/+48 : +38/8/+30 : -18/+8

Perfect. I usually like having little depending on Monday night's outcome.

UPDATE: Oops ...

I just realized my math was off on the Miami-St. Louis game. Technically, that should have been a 100-point difference and thus, higher-ranked than the Giants-Redskins game. We'll see how that affects the experiment.