Week One Picks

I am already in two weekly confidence pools this year (the first is the same one I was in last year, the other is a new one on Yahoo that a friend [of a friend] does every year, I guess), and I might enter a third. But I'm never terribly eager about these first few weeks because after a month of preseason football, we still have no idea what to expect. (Exhibit A: Last year's Detroit Lions.)

Still, if I'm to improve on last year's second-place finish, I've got to take my best stab and collect all the points I can. That said, I believe I've only got one upset in this first week and I'm already doing the second-guessing I wanted to avoid. But anyway, here's how my sheet for Week One looks:

16 points
New England Patriots (0-0) over Buffalo Bills (0-0)

OK, no second-guessing here. I fully expect to frequently hear a wild, noisy crowd in Foxboro with the frequent television camera shots of Dick Jauron's blank face.

15 points
San Diego Chargers (0-0) over Oakland Raiders (0-0)

Opening with the Raiders should help San Diego avoid another slow start. The Chargers have won the last 11 times the two teams have played, but the Bolts did fail to cover the spread one time.

14 points
New Orleans Saints (0-0) over Detroit Lions (0-0)

Since the Hornets' season didn't go very long into the summer, fans in Louisiana should be fired up to have something to root for again. Starting the season with a beatdown of Detroit should do the trick.

13 points
Baltimore Ravens (0-0) over Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

The Ravens have won five of their last six home openers and Kansas City will probably be without their newly acquired franchise quarterback.

12 points
Seattle Seahawks (0-0) over St. Louis Rams (0-0)

Seattle has swept St. Louis each of the past four years, and the Rams have lost five of their last seven season openers.

11 points
Indianapolis Colts (0-0) over Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)

There's good reason to be nervous about this one: The Jags beat Indy on their own turf last year, and Jacksonville has averaged nearly 200 yards rushing in their last six games against the Colts.

10 points
New York Giants (0-0) over Washington Redskins (0-0)

The only 300-yard game Eli Manning had last year was against the Redskins in Week 13. Of course, both of his leading receivers from both games against Washington (Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer) are no longer on the Giants.

9 points
Dallas Cowboys (0-0) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

"OMG! Who's Tony Romo going to throw to without T.O.?!" Irrelevant for the opener as the Cowboys will be content to run the ball down the Bucs' throat and win their first game in Tampa in nearly two decades.

8 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) over Tennessee Titans (0-0)

Big Ben put up a perfect passer rating in his first meeting against the Titans in 2005 but turned the ball over four times when he met them last year. So which version will we get this time around? Well, the defending Super Bowl champs have won all five season openers ever since the NFL made it a tradition to have them play the first night.

7 points
Arizona Cardinals (0-0) over San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

Likely to be a case of the Cards' passing attack vs. the Niners' running game, it's Arizona's offense that has far more potential. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin averaged nearly 10 yards per catch in their two games against San Fran last season.

6 points
Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) over Denver Broncos (0-0)

When we last saw them, these were two squads headed in different directions. The Bengals won their final three games of last season while the Broncos choked away the AFC West crown by dropping three straight. I'm not saying momentum neccesarily carries over some nine months later, but what was accomplished by suspending Brandon Marshall for the entire preseason?

5 points
Houston Texans (0-0) over New York Jets (0-0)

A fairly loaded Texans offense should immediately test a New York defense that the Jets are putting a lot of faith in this season, but it'll be a lot harder without Calvin Pace and Shaun Ellis, both of whom are serving suspensions to start the year.

4 points
Minnesota Vikings (0-0) over Cleveland Browns (0-0)

Brett Favre threw a league-worst 22 interceptions last season, and he'll be starting the year off against a Cleveland team that nabbed 23 passes in 2008, which was second in the NFL. Interesting, but that's admittedly a lot of wishful thinking on my part. Probably just means Adrian Peterson is all the more likely to run amok in Ohio.

3 points
Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) over Carolina Panthers (0-0)

I'm double-screwed here, having both of these defenses for my fantasy team (oh yeah, forgot to mention that I'm finally giving that thing a try this year too). I'm not a fan of citing preseason, but how troubled should you be as a Panthers fan if your first-team offense only scored a single touchdown?

2 points
Atlanta Falcons (0-0) over Miami Dolphins (0-0)

Toughest call I had to make this week. Both teams had remarkable turnarounds last year, but Atlanta gets my nod since they're at home. I could see this one going either way.

1 point
Chicago Bears (0-0) over Green Bay Packers (0-0)

Maybe it is more heart than head, but Lovie Smith is 7-3 against the Packers ever since arriving in Chicago and he's a remarkable 4-1 at Lambeau. Better yet, the Bears have a 10-4 record in the nationally televised night games (7-3 on Sunday nights, 3-1 on Mondays). Yeah, I'm not terribly thrilled about how Chicago's horrific pass defense of a year ago may fare, but I can't wait to see how Aaron Kampman handles his transition from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 linebacker. Considering Jay Cutler's primary targets may very well be tight ends Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark, that spells trouble for Green Bay.