Week Three Picks

In an effort to mix things up this week, I'm actually going to be assigning my point values here first, and then submitting them for the various leagues their in. So either the immediate pause of momentary regret I've seemed to experience immediately upon publishing the picks should be removed by the ability to actually change the desired value or I'm just shit out of luck.

Oh, but before I forget—those added numbers derived from the Power Rankings suggested an order I'm most certainly not going to be following, but hopefully I will remember to compare my actual picks to:

• 16—Jets over Titans
  
• 15—Skins over Lions
  
• 14—Giants over Bucs
  
• 13—Ravens over Browns
  
• 12—Saints over Bills
  
• 11—Texans over Jags
• 10—Chargers over Dolphins
• 9—Cowboys over Panthers
• 8—Broncos over Raiders
• 7—Colts over Cards
• 6—Eagles over Chiefs
• 5—Packers over Rams
• 4—Vikes over Niners
• 3—Falcons over Pats
• 2—Bengals over Steelers
• 1—Seahawks over Bears
  

Not an altogether unreasonable list, I suppose, but here's how I'm voting this week:

16 points
Dallas Cowboys (1-1) over Carolina Panthers (0-2)
+9/+2 : +24/22/+2 : 0/+15

Yep, wanna bet as high as I can on the Cowboys knowing that back-to-back prime time nationally televised losses is unthinkable—and if you're Jerry Jones, unacceptable.

15 points
New York Giants (2-0) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2)

+12/0 : +31/31/0 : 0/+19

The Giants restored a lot of that faith I had in them early last season, and I'd be more weary about such a seemingly pedestrian opponent later in the year. Right now, however, the G-Men want to begin gathering some of that Super Bowl buzz.

14 points
Baltimore Ravens (2-0) over Cleveland Browns (0-2)
+16/0 : +27/27/0 : 0/+11

This, like, never gets old for me:



13 points
New Orleans Saints (2-0) over Buffalo Bills (1-1)
+19/0 : +35/25/+10 : +10/+16

Buffalo's only hope is that the weather's ungodly and a dome team can't adjust to the elements. Maybe then Drew Brees would slow down, but as you can clearly see, I wouldn't bet on that.

12 points
Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) over Kansas City Chiefs (0-2)
+3/+5 : +22/19/+3 : 0/+17

The Chiefs make for a nice rebound from a home-opening asskicking at the hands of the Saints, and that Michael Vick fellow sounds interesting.

11 points
Green Bay Packers (1-1) over St. Louis Rams (0-2)
-14/-1 : +14/15/-1 : 0/+28

I've read about all the records St. Louis keeps setting for franchise-worst sorts of things, and while the Packers took a kick to the sack from Cincinnati of all places, I think Green Bay should probably be feeling pretty good again after this weekend.

10 points
Houston Texans (1-1) over Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)
-5/-13 : +6/25/-19 : -6/+11

Yikes, three bad bets so far between the both of these teams, but the Texans' offense seemed to be living up to their hype last week while the Jags were letting Kurt Warner get over Week One's three turnovers by setting an NFL record for completion percentage.

9 points
Chicago Bears (1-1) over Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
-1/-9 : -1/3/+2 : +11/0

Oh Chicago, can we call it even for last week's misguided 9-pointer if I put the same amount on you this week rather than against you?

8 points
Washington Redskins (1-1) over Detroit Lions (0-2)
+16/+10 : +45/35/+10 : 0/+29

In all honesty, an agonizing pick. But I feel this is the most logical compromise. I've seen a few others (three of the boys from ESPN as well as all three experts from Yahoo) go with Detroit, but I'm determined not to start picking them yet. I'm expecting this to also be the case in the confidence pool where there will be a good variety of 16s for the Redskins opposed to a measly single-pointer for the Lions. Or, who knows, maybe everybody will bet something similar to me out of similar fears.

7 points
New England Patriots (1-1) over Atlanta Falcons (2-0)
+5/0 : +5/9/+14 : +14/0

I've finally gotta pick a loss for one of them, and I'm guessing that Foxboro's where the Patriots correct themselves and the Falcons get served a bit of a reality check after a fast start.

6 points
San Diego Chargers (1-1) over Miami Dolphins (0-2)
0/+11 : 0/4/+4 : -7/0

There's nothing quite like a deflating Monday night loss then having to get on a plane to go cross-country on a shortened week to play a team that's looking to offer its fans a mulligan following their own home opener letdown. Looks like last year's AFC East winners get to start the year 0-3.

5 points
Minnesota Vikings (2-0) over San Francisco 49ers (2-0)
+19/0 : +11/11/0 : 0/-8

Niners have been making me pay for betting against them every week, but they haven't played a defense like Minnesota's. Another reality check served.

4 points
Denver Broncos (2-0) over Oakland Raiders (1-1)
+7/-6 : +22/20/+2 : +4/+15

It's not like it ever is pretty in Oakland to begin with, but Denver's resembled a better team than the Raiders. Congrats to them, however, for somehow beating the Chiefs in the franchise's first victory in a game where they allowed more than 400 yards while gaining fewer than 200. That's pretty damn incredible. Not in a good way (says more about K.C., I suppose), but congrats all the same.

3 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) over Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)
-1/0 : -15/9/-6 : -6/-14

Yeah, gotta keep those kitties from Cincy as low on this list as possible—at least until I get a better idea of which Bengals team I should be expecting. I'll go with history here, and that would suggest that Pittsburgh on all fronts.

2 points
Indianapolis Colts (2-0) over Arizona Cardinals (1-1)
+19/0 : +13/20/-7 : -7/-6

I'll keep factoring in that Super Bowl hangover whether it's showing signs of existence (Week One) or not (Week Two), but against Peyton Manning on Sunday Night, I'm guessing it exhibits itself in some way and the Colts pull off the upset.

1 point
Tennessee Titans (0-2) over New York Jets (2-0)
-13/+8 : -29/37/+8 : 0/-16

There ya go: That was the very first sign why I didn't want to follow the Power Rankings suggestions this week. While maybe the numbers would strongly indicate I should have learned about picking against the Jets, I just think that it's too easy to picture Jeff Fisher stealing a close road game at noon on a Sunday when everybody's looking for Michael Vick. Oh, I'm sure the Jets have heard enough about the temptation to sit on last week's accomplishment, but they'll be facing a Titans squad that simply is going to want it more.