Divisional Playoff Picks: Nobody's Perfect

One thing I started doing this season that I am utterly baffled as to why I wasn't doing last season was tracking how I actually did at picking a team correctly. Now, obviously the teams that win or lose only a couple of games a year are fairly safe bets. The St. Louis Rams, for instance, were picked by me to lose every single week of this year and last. Because they only won one game this year, that means I was 15-1 picking their record straight-up.

Of course, now that we're in the divisional playoffs, a good majority of my best teams are gone. Basically, three teams that have gave me the most difficulty got into the postseason—and two are playing this weekend.

But here's how I did at predicting the records of all 32 teams this year (playoff teams in bold):

St. Louis Rams 15-1
Detroit Lions 14-2
San Diego Chargers 14-2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13-3
Seattle Seahawks 13-3
Washington Redskins 13-3
Atlanta Falcons 13-3
Cleveland Browns 12-4
Indianapolis Colts 12-4
Philadelphia Eagles 12-4 (12-5)
Dallas Cowboys 12-4 (12-5)
Minnesota Vikings 11-5
Kansas City Chiefs 11-5
Tennessee Titans 11-5
Buffalo Bills 11-5
Oakland Raiders 11-5
New Orleans Saints 10-6
Baltimore Ravens 10-6 (10-7)
San Francisco 49ers 10-6
Green Bay Packers 10-6 (10-7)
Miami Dolphins 10-6
Houston Texans 10-6
New England Patriots 9-7 (9-8)
Chicago Bears 9-7
Carolina Panthers 9-7
New York Giants 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars 8-8
New York Jets 8-8 (8-9)
Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8
Denver Broncos 8-8
Cincinnati Bengals 7-9 (7-10)
Arizona Cardinals 7-9 (7-10)

I think you see what I did. It would have been nice to have had some green there, and you would think that I would've managed to get at least one of the four games right, but no sir—serves me right for having the same picks as Ron Jaworski, I suppose.

But I take comfort that at least after one week of the playoffs, we already know nobody will be able to say they got every game right. Here's how everybody's first round went:

1. Eric Allen, ESPN: 3-1
1. Jason Cole, Yahoo: 3-1
1. Michael Silver, Yahoo: 3-1
1. LEV, crazy colored glasses: 3-1
5. Mike Golic, ESPN: 2-2
5. Merrill Hoge, ESPN: 2-2
5. Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 2-2
5. Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 2-2
5. Charles Robinson, Yahoo: 2-2
5. Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 2-2
5. Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 2-2
5. Wunderdog: 2-2
13. James C. Black, Yahoo: 1-3
13. Brian Burke, The Fifth Down: 1-3
13. Pro Football Weekly Editors: 1-3
13. Adam Schefter, ESPN: 1-3
17.Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 0-4
17. YOURS TRULY: 0-4

Yeah, I don't really know what to say about my own showing. Let's put it this way: I need to be perfect the rest of the way to beat last year's performance.

Everybody's got kind of the same picks this week for the most part, but let's pretend like this'll be suspenseful. I'll see you at the end of the scroll:

Jason Cole, Yahoo
Charles Robinson, Yahoo
James C. Black, Yahoo
Michael Silver, Yahoo
Pro Football Weekly Editors
Wunderdog
Eric Allen, ESPN
Mike Golic, ESPN
Merrill Hoge, ESPN
Ron Jaworski, ESPN
Chris Mortensen, ESPN
Adam Schefter, ESPN
Mark Schlereth, ESPN
Seth Wickersham, ESPN
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
Brian Burke, The Fifth Down
LEV, crazy colored glasses

I'm still waiting on bro-in-law, but I'm sure it'll dawn on him shortly after I post this. As for my own picks? Well, what fun would it be to play it safe at this point, right? (Oh, I'm ditching the regular season records I had included last week, although I am still keeping the Power Ranking data—even though I'm kind of ignoring whatever it says.)

These are all supposed to be descending order of confidence, but really the first pick is the only one I'd put money on (if I did that sort of thing):

San Diego Chargers over New York Jets
+104/+7 : +95/78/+17 : +10/-9

There's a reason that nobody's picking the Jets this week—and it ain't just the Jets not being one of the better teams left. The Bolts haven't come into the playoffs with this kind of hype in quite some time, and while you have to wonder if the team's ever going to miss a beat after rattling off 11 straight wins, they're probably my sentimental favorite right now of the eight teams left. Of any team I'd like to see win it all, if I had to pick one, I'd vote for the Chargers because they really have felt like the best team in football for most of the year anyway.

Arizona Cardinals over New Orleans Saints
+28/-27 : +21/41/+62 : +85/-7

I guess that last year, Arizona technically avoided the No. 1 seed, but the whole scenario seems familiar and the Buzzsaw is finally getting a vote from me. I view it as a "can't lose" sort of situation because even if I'm wrong, at least I won't have them screwing with me next week. But if you're seeking legitimate logic here, then all I can tell you is that Kurt Warner has been playing out of his mind and I can't help but wonder if Drew Brees and the Saints don't take a drive too long to catch up.

Minnesota Vikings over Dallas Cowboys
+67/-4 : +63/6/+57 : +61/-4

Dallas is in an unmistakable groove ever since ending the perfect run of the Saints in New Orleans, but beyond the fans inside the Metrodome is still a very good Vikings team that doesn't really seem to fuck around too much when they play there. So I'm tempted to believe that the big performance they keep saying they'll need from Adrian Peterson is something they're going to get. I'm all for a good, low-scoring defensive struggle, and I'm preferring to think of this as another "can't lose" for me because I'll be happy to know that at least one of these two teams won't win at all. Next week it can be the other one, I hope.

Baltimore Ravens over Indianapolis Colts
+67/+4 : +63/24/+87 : +83/-4

We didn't do a playoff pool this year, but just because I'm remembering how fun it was last time, I'll take probably my biggest upset pick this week. I see the Ravens coming in with nothing to lose and the Colts dealing with more pressure than any other host team this weekend, mostly because of all the hoopla that came out of Jim Caldwell's decision to rest his starters for the playoffs. If I'm right, then the entire thing will be debated all through the off-season for Indy.