So I went back and did the little thing I do with red/green post-result-type-thing-a-madoo-hickey-bobber-ska-rinsky-poo on my NFL predictions (and, hey, "as long as I'm at it," last season's MLB picks too), and just to be clear, let me highlight how I did at predicting these playoffs at the beginning of the season:
Wild Card Playoffs
Steelers over Texans
Ravens over Colts
Saints over Giants
Bears over Seahawks
Divisional Playoffs
Patriots over Ravens
Vikings over Bears
Eagles over Saints
Conference Championship
Super Bowl XLIV
I don't really know what to say about this year's playoffs, except that I sure wish I had kept in mind that San Diego's massive first game faceplant was something I said was going to happen and yet here I was (along with everybody else, of course) touting them as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Ravens thing's kind of easy to defend—at least with the New England game, as the Patriots were still my own Super Bowl pick from the beginning of the year. Last week's thing with Indianapolis? Well ... not so easy to defend.
My somewhat respectable regular season in prognosticating has hit a definite snag with some mystifyingly bad logic this post-season. In my defense, nobody else is really killing it with their own playoff picks either (NOBODY had the Jets last week):
1. (1) Eric Allen, ESPN: 5-3 (2-2)
1. (1) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 5-3 (2-2)
1. (5) Charles Robinson, Yahoo: 5-3 (3-1)
1. (1) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 5-3 (2-2)
5. (5) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 4-4 (2-2)
5. (5) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 4-4 (2-2)
5. (1) LEV, crazy colored glasses: 4-4 (1-3)
5. (5) Wunderdog: 4-4 (2-2)
9. (5) Mike Golic, ESPN: 3-5 (1-3)
9. (5) Merrill Hoge, ESPN: 3-5 (1-3)
9. (5) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 3-5 (1-3)
9. (5) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 3-5 (1-3)
9. (13) Brian Burke, The Fifth Down: 3-5 (2-2)
9. (13) Pro Football Weekly Editors: 3-5 (2-2)
9. (13) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 3-5 (2-2)
9. (17) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 3-5 (3-1)
17. (13) James C. Black, Yahoo: 2-6 (1-3)
18. (17) YOURS TRULY: 1-7 (1-3)
1. (1) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 5-3 (2-2)
1. (5) Charles Robinson, Yahoo: 5-3 (3-1)
1. (1) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 5-3 (2-2)
5. (5) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 4-4 (2-2)
5. (5) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 4-4 (2-2)
5. (1) LEV, crazy colored glasses: 4-4 (1-3)
5. (5) Wunderdog: 4-4 (2-2)
9. (5) Mike Golic, ESPN: 3-5 (1-3)
9. (5) Merrill Hoge, ESPN: 3-5 (1-3)
9. (5) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 3-5 (1-3)
9. (5) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 3-5 (1-3)
9. (13) Brian Burke, The Fifth Down: 3-5 (2-2)
9. (13) Pro Football Weekly Editors: 3-5 (2-2)
9. (13) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 3-5 (2-2)
9. (17) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 3-5 (3-1)
17. (13) James C. Black, Yahoo: 2-6 (1-3)
18. (17) YOURS TRULY: 1-7 (1-3)
Allow me to a minute to pretend anybody cares what I think about this weekend's big games as we see which two teams everybody else likes being in the Super Bowl:
Oh, had I gone by my numbers that I've been tracking all year in the confidence pool and otherwise ignored in the playoffs, they've been 5-3 in forecasting. That said, I'll go with what they say this weekend because it's what my gut said anyway too:
Indianapolis Colts over New York Jets+83/-4 : +74/68/+6 : +10/-9
Last week might have been the only chance I'd have to really pick against the Colts. I'd actually say the Jets are a bigger threat than Baltimore, but I don't believe that there's nearly as much pressure from the week off waiting to get that first playoff game out of the way. Indy has to be my pick to be the team hoisting a Lombardi trophy a couple weeks from now in Miami, and the only way I see them not getting there in the first place is if New York's defense can cause enough key turnovers to keep the game close enough for them to steal. Considering Peyton Manning has played like he was balls-out-possessed at many points during the year, I'm willing to guess he picks the Jets apart when he needs to and it's Mark Sanchez that gets the turnover credits.
New Orleans Saints over Minnesota Vikings+85/-7 : +81/21/+60 : +67/-4
You'll notice up there in those playoff picks from the beginning of the season that the Vikings are actually the one team left there still with a color to be assigned for that championship game. I like the video I saw earlier in the season, mostly just because of that clip from the NFC Championship in 1999. I had a few friends that stood to win a lot of money from bets they made at the beginning of the year on Minnesota just reaching the Super Bowl, let alone winning it.
The other funny thing about that year, no more than a decade in the past, is I remember working at a country club and telling a co-worker that I had a dream of the Falcons and Broncos being the Super Bowl. He laughed and was among the friends that came over and watched as both the Vikings and Jets were losers that Championship weekend. Sure, it's just coincidence (the football games I mean, not the country club thing ... I think).
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