Week 17 Power Rankings: At least I was alone in second this year

As you might recall, last season I finished in a tie for second place in the one confidence pool I was in. So as I reflect on another year of NFL predictions, most of the news is positive. I competed in two confidence pools this season and finished in second in both of them.

In the main pool that I was competing in for the second year in a row, I briefly overtook first place after my first win of the season in Week Five but then subsequently fell into second and lost ground each week until my second victory of the year in Week 13 (AGAIN). There was a wee bit of controversy when I went back-to-back and won Week 14 as well, but last week's awful 10-6 record on my picks was only worth 86 points and led to a last place finish for the week. As a result, I finished 40 points out of first and 20 points ahead of third:


The Yahoo pool was more or less the same story, as I won all three of the same weeks. The only difference, I suppose, would be that I spent most of the season in third place for the year and was helped largely by the guy who ultimately finished last failing to submit his picks after being up near the top for most of the year. I missed first place by a little less than the other pool (34 points), but also held off third place by a far slimmer margin of only nine points:


As I said, last year was also a second place finish for the year, although that was a tie. The 1507 points I accumulated this season is an improvement over the 1445 I scored last year, and my 170-86 record was a six-game improvement over the 164-92 mark I had for the 2008 season.

While I certainly dogged it somewhat in the final week (that new formula had been so good to me for the past four or so weeks), the bro-in-law as well as Chris Mortensen and Mark Schlererth of ESPN all had the high scores of 13-3 for Week 17. Jason Cole and Michael Silver of Yahoo, Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, and Merrill Hoge all went 12-4, while Charles Robinson, Eric Allen, Mike Golic, and Ron "I finally got to pick all 16 games!" Jaworski had marks of 11-5. Seth Wickersham didn't leave me by myself in going 10-6, while Adam Schefter brought up the rear at 9-7.

And at last, here are the final numbers for how all the boys did on the year (numbers in parentheses still indicating where the dude stood in the rankings last week):

1. (1) Merril Hoge, ESPN: 175-81 (.684)
2. (2) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 174-82 (.680)
3. (3) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 173-83 (.676)

4. (7) LEV, crazy colored glasses: 171-85 (.668)
5. (3) YOURS TRULY: 170-86 (.664)

5. (6) Charles Robinson, Yahoo: 170-86 (.664)
7. (3) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 169-87 (.660)
7. (9) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 169-87 (.660)

7. (11) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 169-87 (.660)
10. (8) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 158-82 (.658)
11. (10) Mike Golic, ESPN: 167-88 (.655)

12. (11) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 166-90 (.648)

13. (13) Eric Allen, ESPN: 165-91 (.645)

14. (14) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 159-97 (.621)

What's that sound you hear? Correct! It's me groaning at Merrill Hoge finishing with the best record for the second year in a row.

Anyway, last year I was pretty tired by the end of the season and I limited my final thought to just a single word about how the team performed. But now that I have something to compare last season's final numbers to, I'll elaborate a little bit more by seeing how each team did in comparison to the numbers they earned me last year. I'll preface these final numbers by noting that I had double the number of teams with 100+ points, but I also had twice the amount of teams in the negative:

1. (1) ST. LOUIS RAMS

• Last week: Lost to San Francisco, 28-6 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 1-15
• My predicted record: 0-16
• My record at predicting their record: 15-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +182
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +176
  

As I said a couple of times this year, I did not pick the Rams to win a single game over the past two years. And because St. Louis actually won one less game this season than last, they of course finished one spot higher. I find it hard to believe the team can continue to wallow as much as they have these past two years, but I'm not making any promises about picking them to win until some drastic moves get made.

2. (2) DETROIT LIONS

• Last week: Lost to Chicago, 37-23 (+11)
  
• Actual Record: 2-14
• My predicted record: 2-14
• My record at predicting their record: 14-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +6
• Points scored for me with losses: +171
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
• Points taken from me with losses: -6
  
• Plus/Minus: +163
  

It's somewhat remarkable to me that after picking the Lions to win five games during their winless run of last season, my predicted record matched their actual record this season and they still slipped out of their top spot. The point total this year, however, was a dozen points higher than 2008.

3. (5) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

• Last week: Beat Washington, 23-20 (+15)
  
• Actual Record: 13-3
• My predicted record: 11-5
• My record at predicting their record: 14-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +104
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +13
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +111
  

The Bolts were far more reliable for me this year than last, moving up 17 spots and earning 75 more points for me. They got hot faster than I had anticipated, but ultimately proved to be one of—if not the most reliable bets as a winning team this year.

4. (3) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• Last week: Lost to Atlanta, 20-10 (+6)
  
• Actual Record: 3-13
• My predicted record: 0-16
• My record at predicting their record: 13-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +144
• Points taken from me with wins: -38
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +106
  

As my predicted record for the Bucs would indicate, the team suffered a severe drop-off from their 9-7 record of last season. And whereas I had them winning more games than they actually did in 2008 when they choked away a playoff berth, I didn't give them any credit this season. The result was that they shot up 14 spots and earned me 64 more points.

5. (6) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• Last week: Lost to Tennessee, 17-13 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 5-11
• My predicted record: 8-8
• My record at predicting their record: 13-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +36
• Points scored for me with losses: +85
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -16
  
• Plus/Minus: +105

Well, I got all their wins right, but I also picked them to win three games they ended up losing. I blame that on holding out hope that they'd prove me right by winning the NFC West, but it obviously didn't work out that way. Still, it's another Top 10 finish in the Power Rankings for Seattle and the Seahawks earned 37 more points than last year.

5. (8) WASHINGTON REDSKINS

• Last week: Lost to San Diego, 23-20 (+15)
  
• Actual Record: 4-12
• My predicted record: 6-10
• My record at predicting their record: 13-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +29
• Points scored for me with losses: +100
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -11
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -13
• Plus/Minus: +105
  

Quite possibly the biggest turnaround in my Power Rankings, as the Redskins scored nearly 100 more points for me this year than last and went from 30th to a tie to make the Top Five.

7. (4) CLEVELAND BROWNS

• Last week: Beat Jacksonville, 23-17 (-9)
  
• Actual Record: 5-11
• My predicted record: 1-15
• My record at predicting their record: 12-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +1
• Points scored for me with losses: +122
• Points taken from me with wins: -34
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +89

They won one more game than they did in 2008, but scored 32 more points for me this season and moved up seven spots.

8. (10) ATLANTA FALCONS

• Last week: Beat Tampa Bay, 20-10 (+6)
  
• Actual Record: 9-7
• My predicted record: 8-8
• My record at predicting their record: 13-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +52
• Points scored for me with losses: +46
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
• Plus/Minus: +88
  

Another pretty drastic improvement, as the Falcons were 29th in the Rankings to end last year. And only having cost me 10 total points this year puts them right behind the Rams for the least costly teams this season.

9. (7) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• Last week: Lost to Buffalo, 30-7 (-12)
  
• Actual Record: 14-2
• My predicted record: 14-2
• My record at predicting their record: 12-4
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +106
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -4
• Points taken from me with losses: -23
  
• Plus/Minus: +79
  

They pissed away an opportunity to finish above 100 points for the second year in a row and by dropping their final two games, they slipped down from the No. 3 spot they finished at last year. I'm still quietly irritated that their Week 17 loss to Buffalo proved to be only blemish in 12-point games this season.

10. (9) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

• Last week: Lost to Carolina, 23-10 (-8)
  
• Actual Record: 13-3
• My predicted record: 13-3
• My record at predicting their record: 10-6
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +115
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -7
• Points taken from me with losses: -30
  
• Plus/Minus: +78
  

By being undefeated for so long, the Saints scored me far points with victories than they did last year although their limp across the finish line also helped them to cost me more points than they did in 2008. Still, they end this season eight spots higher than last year and with 36 more points as well.

11. (15) BALTIMORE RAVENS

• Last week: Beat Oakland, 21-13 (+14)
  
• Actual Record: 9-7
  
• My predicted record: 11-5
• My record at predicting their record: 10-6
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +85
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +8
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -4
• Points taken from me with losses: -18
• Plus/Minus: +71

I bought into the hype early in the year and as a result, the Ravens slipped from the No. 4 spot they finished at last year and scored 18 less p

12. (12) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

• Last week: Lost to Houston, 34-27 (-2)
  
• Actual Record: 10-6
• My predicted record: 15-1
• My record at predicting their record: 9-7
• Points scored for me with wins: +99
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
• Points taken from me with losses: -33
• Plus/Minus: +63

One spot higher with five more points than 2008, which is sort of surprising when I consider how much more often I had them winning this year and the Pats, in fact, finished with one less win than last season.

12. (16) MINNESOTA VIKINGS

• Last week: Beat New York Giants, 44-7 (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 12-4
• My predicted record: 13-3
• My record at predicting their record: 11-5
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +96
• Points scored for me with losses: +4
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
• Points taken from me with losses: -29
• Plus/Minus: +63
  

Much like New England, the Vikings are fairly close to where they finished last season (No. 15) and had a small improvement in points, eight more than 2008. This year, however, I actually had Minnesota winning more games than they ultimately did.

14. (18) CHICAGO BEARS

• Last week: Beat Detroit, 37-23 (+11)
  
• Actual Record: 7-9
• My predicted record: 10-6
• My record at predicting their record: 9-7
• Points scored for me with wins: +57
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +34
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -18
• Points taken from me with losses: -11
  
• Plus/Minus: +62
  

A pretty big improvement over the No. 25 finish they had in the Rankings last season, attributed mostly to me putting my fandom to the side much earlier than last year when I had them going 13-3.

15. (13) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• Last week: Lost to Dallas, 24-0 (+1)
  
• Actual Record: 11-5
• My predicted record: 11-5
• My record at predicting their record: 12-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +76
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +10
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -19
  
• Plus/Minus: +61
  

Although they only moved up seven spots, they more than doubled last season's points total. And at least this year they didn't end up fucking tying anybody.

16. (11) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Last week: Beat Denver, 44-24 (-16)
  
• Actual Record: 4-12
• My predicted record: 3-13
• My record at predicting their record: 11-5
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +1
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +101
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -37
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
  
• Plus/Minus: +60
  

That upset of the Broncos to finish the year really changed things. As a result of that finish, the Chiefs dropped out of the Top 10 finish they had last season and scored 11 less points.

17. (20) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• Last week: Beat St. Louis, 28-6 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 8-8
• My predicted record: 4-12
• My record at predicting their record: 10-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +37
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +48
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -19
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
  
• Plus/Minus: +59
  

Amazingly, that 4-12 mark is the exact same record I ended up predicting them to have last year. But just like Kansas City, the Niners drop from their 2008 Top 10 finish and presumably because they won one more game than last year, they scored 13 less points.

18. (16) DALLAS COWBOYS

• Last week: Beat Philadelphia, 24-0 (+1)
  
• Actual Record: 11-5
• My predicted record: 11-5
• My record at predicting their record: 12-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +76
• Points scored for me with losses: +7
• Points taken from me with wins: -11
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -15
  
• Plus/Minus: +57

While Dallas is only four spots higher than where they finished last year, they did nearly double the 30 points they earned me last year.

19. (21) TENNESSEE TITANS

• Last week: Beat Seattle, 17-13 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 8-8
• My predicted record: 9-7
• My record at predicting their record: 11-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +44
• Points scored for me with losses: +40
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -21
• Plus/Minus: +55

Again, the move up the Rankings wasn't too big a leap (one spot higher), but the Titans did earn me 19 more points than 2008.

20. (14) BUFFALO BILLS

• Last week: Beat Indianapolis, 30-7 (-12)
  
• Actual Record: 6-10
• My predicted record: 3-13
• My record at predicting their record: 11-5
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +15
• Points scored for me with losses: +77
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -38
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
• Plus/Minus: +47
  

It's hard not to make progress after finishing last season's Rankings second from the bottom with only three points, but the Bills still end on a sour note for me because of that damned 12-point game they cost me.

21. (23) OAKLAND RAIDERS

• Last week: Lost to Baltimore, 21-13 (+14)
  
• Actual Record: 5-11
• My predicted record: 1-15
• My record at predicting their record: 11-5
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +4
• Points scored for me with losses: +88
• Points taken from me with wins: -51
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +41
  

The Raiders move up a mere one spot, earning 11 more points this season than last.

22. (19) CAROLINA PANTHERS

• Last week: Beat New Orleans, 23-10 (-8)
  
• Actual Record: 8-8
• My predicted record: 5-11
• My record at predicting their record: 9-7
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +29
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +60
• Points taken from me with wins: -40
• Points taken from me with losses: -10
  
• Plus/Minus: +39

My refusal to give them more credit cost me toward the end of this season, as their .500 finish resulted in them scoring 35 less points from me and dropping 11 spots.

23. (22) GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Last week: Beat Arizona, 33-7 (-3)
  
• Actual Record: 11-5
• My predicted record: 11-5
• My record at predicting their record: 10-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +76
• Points scored for me with losses: +6
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -13
• Points taken from me with losses: -31
  
• Plus/Minus: +38
  

Believe it or not, this spot's an improvement for the Pack as they finished this year with nearly double the 20 points they earned for me in 2008 although they only moved up three spots from last year's finish.

24. (25) NEW YORK GIANTS

• Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 44-7 (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 8-8
• My predicted record: 14-2
• My record at predicting their record: 8-8
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +66
• Points scored for me with losses: +7
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -38
• Plus/Minus: +29
  

Yeah, the G-Men were certainly one of the biggest drop-offs this year, scoring 60 less points for me and falling 20 spots. My 14-2 predicted record does, however, match what I had them at the conclusion of last season. Too bad they ended up winning four less games in actuality.

25. (27) MIAMI DOLPHINS

• Last week: Lost to Pittsburgh, 30-24 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 7-9
• My predicted record: 5-11
• My record at predicting their record: 10-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +14
• Points scored for me with losses: +36
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -16
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -9
  
• Plus/Minus: +25
  

Once again, they won two more games than I had predicted for them, but this season the Fins didn't even accumulate half the 60 points they earned me in 2008 and as a result dropped 13 spots lower.

26. (24) HOUSTON TEXANS

• Last week: Beat New England, 34-27 (-2)
  
• Actual Record: 9-7
• My predicted record: 9-7
• My record at predicting their record: 10-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +42
• Points scored for me with losses: +17
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -22
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -16
  
• Plus/Minus: +21
  

Much like Miami, Houston failed to score even half what they did last year (+45), although their drop from No. 17 was somewhat less drastic.

27. (25) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

• Last week: Lost to Cleveland, 23-17 (-9)
  
• Actual Record: 7-9
• My predicted record: 9-7
• My record at predicting their record: 8-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +27
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +31
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -24
• Points taken from me with losses: -21
• Plus/Minus: +13
  

The always enigmatic Jags finished with seven less points than last season and slipped one spot. I remain somewhat pleasantly surprised by the fact they avoided being completely at the bottom they spent most of last season at.

28. (29) CINCINNATI BENGALS

• Last week: Lost to New York Jets, 37-0 (+5)
  
• Actual Record: 10-6
• My predicted record: 7-9
• My record at predicting their record: 7-9
• Points scored for me with wins: +52
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +21
• Points taken from me with wins: -37
• Points taken from me with losses: -28
• Plus/Minus: +8
  

After being reliably bad last season, the Bengals spent most of this season near the bottom of the Power Rankings by winning games hardly anybody gave them a chance in. They finish this year a dozen spots lower and with 45 less points, but after how long they were in the cellar of the Rankings for so many weeks, I'm just grateful they ended the year in the positive.

29. (28) ARIZONA CARDINALS

• Last week: Lost to Green Bay, 33-7 (-3)
  
• Actual Record: 10-6
• My predicted record: 9-7
• My record at predicting their record: 7-9
• Points scored for me with wins: +52
• Points scored for me with losses: +6
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -33
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -24
• Plus/Minus: +1

I had completely forgotten that the Cards finished sixth in the final Rankings last season, but my belief that they'd suffer an inevitable Super Bowl hangover did not pan out and as a result, they finished this season with 1/88th of the points they earned me last year.

29. (31) NEW YORK JETS

• Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 37-0 (+5)
  
• Actual Record: 9-7
• My predicted record: 9-7
• My record at predicting their record: 8-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +33
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +19
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -28
• Points taken from me with losses: -23
  
• Plus/Minus: +1
  

Not all that much of a fall from where they finished for me last year, only having 10 less points and one spot lower.

31. (32) PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• Last week: Beat Miami, 30-24 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 9-7
  
• My predicted record: 15-1
• My record at predicting their record: 8-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +52
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -1
• Points taken from me with losses: -58
  
• Plus/Minus: -7

Wow. If my predicted record for the Steelers isn't indicative enough, I obviously had much higher expectations from the defending Super Bowl Champions. Instead, they drop from No. 7 in 2008 to second-worst with a difference of nearly 80 points.

32. (30) DENVER BRONCOS

• Last week: Lost to Kansas City, 44-24 (-16)
  
• Actual Record: 8-8
• My predicted record: 10-6
• My record at predicting their record: 8-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +25
• Points scored for me with losses: +23
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -19
• Points taken from me with losses: -45
  
• Plus/Minus: -16
  

And in a remarkable twist of fate to end the year, the one team that duplicated their 2008 Power Rankings finish was none other than the frustration that is the Denver Broncos. Exact same spot and exact same score. I'm willing to say that they will end up on the lower side of the bets next season.

While my flawless record with 12-point games fell through in the final week, I can take a little bit of solace in the fact that victories in the eight- and nine-point games of Week 17 put me over .500 on the year in both of those spots. As a result, there once again were only two spots on my list where I had losing records on the year. (The records in parentheses are last year's marks):

16-point games: 7-3 (9-0)
15-point games: 8-3 (7-3)
14-point games: 12-2 (13-3)
13-point games: 15-2 (12-5)
12-point games: 16-1 (12-5)
11-point games: 12-5 (13-4)
10-point games: 15-2 (13-4)
9-point games: 10-7 (11-6)
8-point games: 10-7 (10-7)
7-point games: 9-8 (11-6)
6-point games: 9-8 (10-7)
5-point games: 11-6 (6-11)
4-point games: 13-4 (10-7)
3-point games: 6-11 (9-8)
2-point games: 9-8 (10-7)
1-point games: 8-9 (8-9)

I will have further reflections on the season that was and probably more comparison of numbers as the playoffs play themselves out.