Wild Card Picks: Do I stick with what I said at the beginning of the year?

This was my first year of making predictions before the NFL regular season began and I correctly had eight of the 12 teams that actually made the playoffs. Overall, I correctly predicted the division finishes of 17 out of the 32 teams (AFC East: 2/4, AFC North: 2/4, AFC South: 4/4, AFC West: 1/4, NFC East: 1/4, NFC North: 2/4, NFC South: 4/4, NFC West: 1/4).

In last year's final Power Rankings, I had laid out how the divisions would've ended up had the teams done what I predicted every week and keeping that tradition alive, here's how the standings would've looked if my predictions had come true every week this season:

AFC East
New England Patriots 15-1
New York Jets 9-7
Miami Dolphins 5-11
Buffalo Bills 3-13

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 15-1
Baltimore Ravens 11-5
Cincinnati Bengals 7-9
Cleveland Browns 1-15

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 14-2
Houston Texans 9-7
Tennessee Titans 9-7
Jacksonville Jaguars 9-7

AFC West
San Diego Chargers 11-5
Denver Broncos 10-6
Kansas City Chiefs 3-13
Oakland Raiders 1-15

NFC East
New York Giants 14-2
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Dallas Cowboys 11-5
Washington Redskins 6-10

NFC North
Minnesota Vikings 13-3
Green Bay Packers 11-5
Chicago Bears 10-6
Detroit Lions 2-14

NFC South
New Orleans Saints 13-3
Atlanta Falcons 8-8
Carolina Panthers 5-11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-16

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals 9-7
Seattle Seahawks 8-8
San Francisco 49ers 4-12
St. Louis Rams 0-16

So over the course of the year, I didn't deviate too much from my original predictions. And that's something to keep in mind as we enter the playoffs since unlike the luck I had with, say, last season's MLB predictions, both of my Super Bowl teams are still alive. The question now is if I still really believe the New England Patriots will defeat the Philadelphia Eagles in Miami this February. At the moment, that's not what the odds would favor, but as Brian Burke mentions in his probabilities this week, the best teams right now probably will not be playing in the Super Bowl.

Now, obviously with the confidence pool no longer in play, I'll only be tracking the straight-up picks of the same group I had been following during the season which includes Mr. Burke, the bro-in-law, the editors of Pro Football Weekly, Wunderdog, and the experts from both Yahoo and ESPN. Pete Prisco of CBS Sports is being included as well, although the fact that his picks came via a video segment and included his Super Bowl prediction as well, I'm not entirely certain he'll continue to do that throughout the playoffs. We shall see, I suppose.

Anyway, here's how all the other boys' picks look for this weekend:

Jason Cole, Yahoo
Charles Robinson, Yahoo
James C. Black, Yahoo
Michael Silver, Yahoo
Pro Football Weekly Editors
Wunderdog
Eric Allen, ESPN
Mike Golic, ESPN
Merrill Hoge, ESPN
Ron Jaworski, ESPN
Chris Mortensen, ESPN
Adam Schefter, ESPN
Mark Schlereth, ESPN
Seth Wickersham, ESPN
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
Brian Burke, The Fifth Down
LEV, crazy colored glasses

So every team this weekend has at least one vote. As usual, my picks are presented in descending order of confidence, although in all honesty, I'm not truly more confident about one outcome over another. I could feasibly see victorious scenarios for all eight of the teams playing this weekend. But I've got to pick four and here's the teams I like to survive for at least one more week—and as you'll notice, the numbers gathered from my weekly Power Rankings are most definitely being included here and factored into my decisions:

New England Patriots (10-6) over Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
+66/-3 : +70/6/+64 : +67/+4

Yes, I realize Wes Welker will not be around for the playoffs and that's going to severely affect the long-term prognosis of my predicted Super Bowl Champions, but the Pats get to open the playoffs in Foxboro where they haven't lost all season. In all honesty, neither team really made all that compelling of a case to me in how they closed out the year. While both teams won three of their final four regular season games, New England gets the benefit of the doubt from me by beating a couple more respectable clubs than the Ravens, who beat three sub-.500 teams but lost to the one team they played with a winning record.

Green Bay Packers (11-5) over Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
+45/-7 : +18/3/+21 : +28/-27

No, I have not forgotten about how little credit I gave the Cards last year when I picked against them every step of the way along their miraculous playoff run. I won't be using the same logic for picking against Arizona though since they did, in fact, beat teams this year other than the cream puffs that make up the NFC West. Still, I'm not buying completely into the notion that Ken Wisenhunt saved all of his team's best plays for this rematch of last week's Green Bay steamrolling of the Cardinals. The Pack have won eight of their last nine going back to their second loss of the year to Minnesota in Week Eight, and I am buying into the thought of avenging those losses to the Vikes in the playoffs will serve as the motivation that helps Green Bay dispose of last year's NFC Champs.

Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) over New York Jets (9-7)
+24/-16 : +15/21/-6 : +10/-9

In another Week 17 rematch, I'll actually go against a repeat performance from the winner. While neither team's turnover differential this season was all that impressive, I'm far more confident in Carson Palmer than I am in Mark Sanchez when it comes to protecting the football. Sure, the Jets are probably more likely to stick to their league-leading ground game, but Marvin Lewis made his name on the defensive side of the ball and I believe will have the Bengals looking nothing like the lackluster effort the team displayed in the Big Apple last weekend.

Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) over Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
+57/+4 : +53/12/+65 : +61/-4

I might as well come out and admit that I'm counting on Philly to quite simply be that much luckier than Big D. Andy Reid always seems to get Donovan McNabb to play his best in the post-season and while I won't be counting on the Eagles to get much going on the ground, I do think McNabb will be able to create enough big plays that force Tony Romo to try and respond—which he won't. If Dallas sticks to the run and gets out to an early lead, it will spell trouble for Philly, but I think the Eagles will make it a game, keep it close, and steal it late.