Week Nine Picks

OK, so I finally decided to try and put the Power Rankings to a sort of test and here's what I came up with. Let's use the week's 14-point game as an example since my No. 1 Power Ranking team is in that game.

When the Chicago Bears (ranked 30th in my Power Rankings) have been picked to win, they have cost me 12 points. When they've been picked to lose, it's been a single point loss for me. Conversely, while the Lions have cost me 10 points when picked to win, they've earned me 70 when picked to lose. So it's the Bears (-12/-1) against the Lions (-10/+70).

Now when you combine the numbers for the possible scenarios, then picking the Bears to win results in a positive total of 58 (-12 + 70) points. But picking the Lions is a -11 (-1 + -10). The difference between those two numbers is 69.

So the numbers are presented like this:

-12/-1 : 58/69/-11 : -10/+70
CHI WIN/CHI LOSS : CHI WIN/DIFFERENCE/DET WIN : DET WIN/DET LOSS

The difference is the biggest number in the series of them, and I've ranked most of the games according to that difference. It pretty much follows that pattern until about the six-point game, and then I start explaining why I went against the numbers. But for my confidence pool this week, I'm sure as hell hoping that the numbers don't lie. Oh, and the suicide (or "Eliminator," as it's "officially" called) pool kicked off this week:

14 points
Chicago Bears (4-3) over Detroit Lions (0-7)
-12/-1 : +58/69/-11 : -10/+70
<<<================

No-brainer. If Matt Forte doesn't have a huge game, then there's a real problem.

13 points
New York Giants (6-1) over Dallas Cowboys (5-3)
+61/-3 : +47/49/-2 : +1/-14

Here's one I may argue with the numbers about, but the bottom line was that I always going to pick the Giants.

12 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-3) over Kansas City Chiefs (1-6)
+13/+12 : +46/47/-1 : -13/+31

Another safe bet that's sure to be popular for big points.

11 points
Arizona Cardinals (4-3) over St. Louis Rams (2-5)
+14/+9 : +50/41/+9 : 0/+36

Arizona needed one of their division foes to beat up on to prove if they're for real.

10 points
Philadelphia Eagles (4-3) over Seattle Seahawks (2-5)
+28/+10 : +46/37/+9 : -1/+18

I'm not thrilled about having the Seahawks in the 10-point game for the second week in a row, but these aren't the Niners they'll be playing.

9 points
Atlanta Falcons (4-3) over Oakland Raiders (2-5)
+5/-6 : +23/29/-6 : 0/+18

I, for one reason or another (going with the road team in a late game, which burned me last week), am worried about this pick.

8 points
Tennessee Titans (7-0) over Green Bay Packers (4-3)
+11/-19 : +15/28/-13 : +6/+4

I wanna see the Titans finally drop a game as bad as anybody, but instead I'm seeing Aaron Rodgers racking up a few picks.

7 points
Buffalo Bills (5-2) over New York Jets (4-3)
+18/-15 : +23/11/+12 : +27/+5

It's a huge game for both teams, but the Bills are at home for this one.

6 points
Minnesota Vikings (3-4) over Houston Texans (3-4)
+13/+10 : +37/0/+37 : +27/+24

Yep, that number's pretty indicative of the whole thing. I could've gone either way on this one, but once again, I'm going with the home team.

5 points
Washington Redskins (6-2) over Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
+13/-4 : +10/20/+30 : +34/-3

The numbers would indicate that I should go with the Steelers, but Washington at home on a Monday night is tough to argue with.

4 points
Indianapolis Colts (3-4) over New England Patriots (5-2)
+17/+3 : +14/4/+18 : +15/-3

Another prime-time game for the Colts and you just can't imagine that another loss on their home field wouldn't sting even more if they once again failed to beat the Patriots ... without Tom Brady.

3 points
Denver Broncos (4-3) over Miami Dolphins (3-4)
-1/0 : -3/1/-4 : -4/-2

And so we've arrived at the ugliest game of the week for me, as far as numbers are concerned. Two teams that are jockeying as to who can crush me more often this year. Here's to hoping they both take the week off from that.

2 points
Cleveland Browns (3-4) over Baltimore Ravens (4-3)
-6/+12 : -9/41/+32 : +20/-3

You don't have to argue with me about supporting the Ravens in this one, but I'm buying into the romanticized notion of the franchise that left Cleveland having to come back into the Dog Pound.

That and the sweatshirt I bought on vacation last weekend, of course.

1 point
Cincinnati Bengals (0-8) over Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)
-20/+61 : -32/75/+43 : -18/-12

Alas, here's the absolute largest point differential of the week in this trial run. And you see who comes out on top in that scenario? Yeah, screw that. So the one-point game it is for the week, but I might actually not be happier to be right than if I get this one.