Conference Championship Picks: Small Changes Make Big Differences?

The New York Giants will not be be repeating as World Champions this year, but three of the other four teams that were in this round last year have returned. So, you know, parity, folks.

There were indeed two close games last weekend that provided a bit more excitement than we got opening weekend (it was the highest scoring divisional round in history, if you're keeping count). The consensus opinion seems to be that a San Francisco-New England Super Bowl is not just likely but preferable to any of the three alternative scenarios. I certainly would have no problem with the prospect of a Pats-Niners title game two weeks from now, although for the sake of my own entertainment, I hope that there's at least one more fairly competitive contest this weekend even if that is the ultimate result.

Rest assured, there's probably a storyline for you to root for somewhere among this Final Four.



After the first two rounds of action, here's how the standings look among myself and the experts from ESPN, Yahoo and CBS (first set of parentheses denoting the expert's place in the standings last week, and the second set denoting his record on picks just for last week):

1. (1)  Eric Allen, ESPN: 7-1 (3-1)
1. (11) Mike Golic, ESPN: 7-1 (4-0)

3. (1) Accuscore, ESPN: 6-2 (2-2)

3. (1) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 6-2 (2-2)

3. (1) Mike Freeman, CBS Sports: 6-2 (2-2) 
3. (11) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 6-2 (3-1)

3. (1) Prediction Machine, CBS Sports: 6-2 (2-2) 
3. (1) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 6-2 (2-2) 
9. (11) Will Brinson, CBS Sports: 5-3 (2-2) 
9. (11) Les Carpenter, Yahoo: 5-3 (2-2) 

9. (11) Tom Jackson, ESPN: 5-3 (2-2)

9. (1) Clark Judge, CBS Sports: 5-3 (1-3)
9. (11) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 5-3 (2-2)

9. (11) Dave Richard, CBS Sports: 5-3 (2-2)
9. (11) Mike Silver, Yahoo: 5-3 (2-2)
9. (11) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 5-3 (2-2)

9. (1) Yahoo Users: 5-3 (1-3) 
9. (11) YOURS TRULY: 5-3 (2-2) 
19. (25) Merril Hoge, ESPN: 4-4 (2-2)
19. (11) Josh Katzowitz, CBS Sports: 4-4 (1-3)

19. (11) Jason La Canfora, CBS Sports: 4-4 (1-3)
19. (25) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 4-4 (2-2)

19. (11) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 4-4 (1-3)

19. (11) SportsNation, ESPN: 4-4 (1-3)

25. (25) Ryan Wilson, CBS Sports: 3-5 (1-3)

25. (28) Mike Ditka, ESPM: 3-5 (2-2)

Oh, and I've placed a couple of the "experts" at the bottom of the list after we had the second case this postseason of an ESPN personality conveniently changing their picks to a winner. It wasn't just my screencap, but Seattle's SB Nation site also documented Carter as having picked the Seahawks. Unlike Keyshawn Johnson, who I gave the benefit of the doubt after reasoning his switch may have been made as soon as Ray Lewis announced his retirement, Carter's change reeks of complete bullshit. I'm now placing both on the bottom of the rankings since I always thought both former receivers were douches anyway. The changing of picks just solidifies my belief:

27. (1) Cris Carter, ESPN: 6-2 7-1 (2-2 3-1)
28. (1) Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN: 5-3 6-2 (2-2)

Anyway, here's what the crew from ESPN is anticipating for the Super Bowl:

These are the picks from the fellas over at Yahoo:

And here's how the guys at CBS Sports see things:

As for me:

San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) over Atlanta Falcons (14-3)

The Falcons finally got that playoff win that seemingly nobody thought they'd ever get (except for Cris Carter, of course). While I'm sure the Georgia Dome will be raucous to start with, it seems like the Niners could take the air out of the place fairly quickly. The corners could be the weakest area of an otherwise stellar San Francisco defense, so Roddy White or Julio Jones could have big impact if either is physical enough. Still, it's hard to imagine Atlanta being able to get out to any sort of lead like what they established (and gave away) against Seattle. Mike Smith has a pretty impressive record against the rookie QBs, but the Falcons barely escaped last week against a Seahawks team with arguably weaker receiving threats. Maybe Matt Ryan surprises me and out performs Colin Kaepernick, but I'm inclined to believe that if anything, the 49ers defense creates a few key turnovers and gets the credit for carrying this team to the Super Bowl. 

Baltimore Ravens (12-6) over New England Patriots (13-4)

So I'm anticipating the storyline for the Super Bowl to be "The Harbaugh Bowl," obviously. I've clearly been thinking that the Patriots just weren't going to be able to pull of repeat Super Bowl appearances, even though the team has been clicking on just about every cylinder for quite a few weeks now. Still, many of us had left the Ravens for dead last week, and instead, Baltimore is still playing. I'm buying into the idea of many Ravens having wanted this rematch all year after coming up heartbreakingly short in last year's AFC Championship. So beyond just the prospect of it being Ray Lewis' final year, there's also the fact that Joe Flacco has routinely stepped up here in a contract year every time this team has needed him. Somehow, some way, I think Baltimore is going to pull this one off.