Oscar Nominee Reaction: Bad Signs

I improved on last year's predictions of nominees by going 36 of 44 on this year's picks. Virtually all of my incorrect guesses were replaced by people I suspected were contenders, but the biggest surprise of the morning had to be the Best Director category. While I gave Michael Haneke an outside shot, the nomination of Benh Zeitlin was pretty much out of left field to me. Furthermore, instead of David O. Russell being replaced as I guessed, those two nominations ended up bumping out Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow—two directors whose pictures were expected to offer the biggest challenge to the currently front-running Lincoln. With Affleck and Bigelow denied that shot, the race seems to be all but sewn up for Spielberg and Lincoln—the film with the most nominations—is all but a certainty for Best Picture. At the moment, three of the four acting awards also seem to be foregone conclusions.

In addition to there not being much suspense about what names will be announced during the Oscar broadcast next month, if the announcement of the nominations were any indication, Seth MacFarlane appears to be well on his way to being a one-and-done host of the show. If that turns out to be the case, I suppose that many Family Guy fans would immediately claim the Academy's decision to find a new host would be a testament to how "edgy" MacFarlane is. Chances are, if you're hoping for surprises with the winners or an entertaining show, you may very well get neither.

As Entertainment Weekly's Ken Tucker put it:

Wow, after seeing Seth MacFarlane’s smug, condescending presentation of the Oscar nominations this morning with Emma Stone, I can’t wait for him to host the show itself — it may be one for the ages. 

Calling directors such as Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee among “the very best at sitting in a chair watching other people make a movie”? Ooooh, speaking truth to power! Making a sub-par, older-than-Mel-Brooks Hitler joke about Michael Haneke’s Amour? 

Dismissing the supporting actor category, in which all the nominees turned out to be previous Oscar winners, with a sarcastic, “Breath of fresh air in that category”?

Yeah, MacFarlane has clearly taken the temperature of the room he’s about to face during the Oscar telecast… David Letterman, you can probably stop making jokes about how much the movie industry disliked your host gig; a new winner in that category may reveal itself on Oscar night.

Indeed, I guess the best way to look at it would be that I'm bound to end up pleasantly surprised by something since I'll be entering this year's show with such low expectations. I'm sure there will be plenty more bitching about the atrocious choice of host (the only question is whether the Academy will panic and go back to their safe standby in Billy Crystal for next year or try to one-up the Globes by picking another duo they think could rival Fey and Poehler), but I suppose the other upside is that so many seeming favorites in big categories should give me a good shot at a very successful year of predicting winners.

(NOTE: The checkmarks in the graphic denote the five films I've already seen—all of which I enjoyed. It seems likely that the wife and I will see three of the remaining four, although it sounds like Life of Pi might be the last one she is compelled to view.)