Oscar Nominee Picks: Should Be Quite Political

Academy Award nominees get announced tomorrow morning, which means it's time for me take a brief break from football predictions to throw out a few non-sports related guesses. Count me among those who are not exactly thrilled with the prospect of this year's show being hosted by Seth MacFarlane. I would be willing to bet that this weekend's Golden Globes ceremony co-hosted by Tina Fey and Amy Poehler is likely to be far funnier, even if the awards being presented aren't as, um ... significant.

I assume I'll probably dwell further on these concerns in my imminent reaction to the nominations tomorrow, but for the time being, this year's race seems to be between the heavily-favored Lincoln and the controversial Zero Dark Thirty. I've already seen the former and have tickets to attend the latter this evening—not that my opinion is in anyway going to sway the voting or my guesses about how the voting will wind up.

As has been the case recently on this blog, I'm whipping the text for this post up while on lunch at work, so let us get right to the point of this post and talk about which names I'm expecting to be read tomorrow morning as the ass-crack of dawn on the West Coast.

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables

Denzel Washington, Flight

This is one of the safer categories, with the possible spoiler being The Master's Joaquin Phoenix. There might also be an outside shots for Amour's Jean Loius Trintigant if the support for that film is stronger than I suspect, but it's hard to pick against any of these five front-runners. I would assume Hawkes or Cooper would be most at risk of being snubbed.

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

A lot more potential for spoilers here, as my Wallis pick would be considered a surprise by a good number of people. She (and maybe even Cotillard or Watts) could be bumped by Amour's Emmanuelle Riva (who I strongly considered) or the always popular Helen Mirren, although I just feel that reaction to Hitchcock was too lukewarm to garner enough support. Speaking of ever-popular, Meryl Streep was in something last year, I'm sure, and either Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina) or Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea) are upset possibilities.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

My pick of Henry here is even more of a risk than his co-star Wallis above, but I'm almost certain that I'll be lucky to get three of these names right. Jones seems to be about the only sure thing here, but any one of the other four that would be sure things in lesser years could be replaced by any one of another five contenders: Django Unchained offers three contenders in Christoph Waltz, Leonardo DiCaprio and Samuel L. Jackson, although I'm guessing they'll cancel each other out; and Javier Bardem's Skyfall turn earned him a SAG nomination, but Magic Mike's Matthew McConaughey could take just as many comedic votes away.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, The Master

Ann Dowd, Compliance

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

I consider Field and Hathaway to be the sure things here, but much like the Supporting Actor contenders, there's plenty of other names out there that might displace the three other women I've opted for. I assume that Hunt is the next safest bet, Adams is somewhat risky, and Dowd would be something of a shocker—but consider me won over by her reported paying for screeners. In addition to Hathaway, Les Misérables features two other ladies in Helena Bonham Carter and Samantha Barks if that musical's more popular than I'm thinking. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel's Maggie Smith is a very popular choice among other prognosticators, as is The Paperboy's Nicole Kidman. Silver Lining Playbook's Jacki Weaver was also a tempting option, but ultimately I liked Dowd.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Michael Haneke, Amour

Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained 
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom

Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty

Looper seems like the omission here most likely to haunt me later. Flight and Middle of Nowhere also seem like possibilities that could aggravate me tomorrow morning.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Chris Terrio, Argo

Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

David Magee, Life of Pi

Tony Kushner, Lincoln

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

These seem fairly safe to me, but I won't be too surprised if my logic about Les Misérables not being seen as a writing achievement comes back to bite me. Other spoilers include Perks of Being a Wallflower, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, or Cloud Atlas.

BEST DIRECTOR

Ben Affleck, Argo

Ang Lee, Life of Pi 

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Tom Hooper is the DGA nominee I've got getting the screw job here, although it took a bit of waffling before I settle on picking Russell. He could very easily be replaced by Quentin Tarantino, Paul Thomas Anderson or maybe even Michael Haneke if—once again—the love for Amour is stronger than I suspect. Still, if anything, seems like Russell being bumped by Hooper would be the most likely change, although I still harbor doubts about Lee's certainty here too.

BEST PICTURE

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Misérables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

I've once again guessed that there will be eight nominees announced. The riskiest pick here would be Beasts of the Southern Wild—and then maybe Life of Pi or Django Unchained, although those two certainly seem like they have strong chances right now. I really, really debated including Amour, but ultimately, I think it's going to have to settle for the Foreign Film prize. Moonrise Kingdom has been championed by some, but I still have my doubts about whether the Wes Anderson film can garner enough support. I think The Master simply came out too long ago, and there remains the chance that either of two more commercial successes, The Dark Knight Rises and Skyfall, also have chances.

NOTE: Photos for graphic taken from here and here