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You might recall that when we were at this point last year, I played it safe and picked the four teams that we had in the previous year's Conference Finals to all return and set up two rematches. Instead, half of those teams got eliminated.
So here we are getting ready for the conference semi-finals (division finals?), and—minus the Los Angeles Kings—three teams are looking at return trips to the Conference Finals. All three will have home ice, so that should make them presumed favorites, although expert opinion I've seen thus far has been decidedly mixed.
I played it safe in making my second round picks last year, and felt immediately convinced that all four of the higher-ranked seeds would be advancing this year after leaning decidedly toward the upsets last round. The result, however, was that only half of my six so-called upset predictions panned out—and the Blackhawks as an upset still seems a little misleading since a majority of the picks I saw had them favored to beat the Predators.
Either way, my 5-3 record in the first round probably wasn't the best set of predictions on the internet, although four of those five correct picks also nailed the exact number of games the series would last. I'm entirely convinced that at least one underdog is going to overachieve and ruin what I'm about to publish below for this round's predictions—assuming I do go with all four favorites, of course.
In comparison to the train wreck that was my NHL predictions, my NBA predictions were a bit better. Of course, it's a bit easier when there's two more divisions with less teams. But hey, at least my title series is still alive in this sport. Not that I'm overly confident in its likelihood.
Truth be told, my picks for this first round of the NBA playoffs are pretty much going to be the exact opposite of what I was anticipating in the NHL. In other words, I'm playing it on the so-called "safe" side here and picking nearly all favorites.
Trust me, I didn't think this would be the story when I was looking at the Western Conference standings a few weeks ago and thought there was a very real chance that all the lower seeds might advance (this, obviously, was when Kevin Durant was still presumed to be participating in the playoffs). The West is just so loaded with talent that I can't deny that three so-called upsets would not surprise me.
Either way, I'm anticipating a very lively and exciting first round of basketball. Well, in the West at least. I'm not terribly likely to rip myself away from any hockey for any series in the East. Probably not even the Bulls. Wake me when LeBron is playing Chicago, thank you.
Judging by my predictions from before the season began, I'm probably not the guy to trust on what is likely to occur in these playoffs. Although I correctly named 11 of the 16 playoff teams, I had a mere five teams in their correct spots in the final standings. Worse yet, my predicted Stanley Cup Final this year is a complete impossibility as both clubs were among those five teams that I was incorrect about postseason life for.
San Jose and Columbus aren't even the most shocking teams missing from the bracket, as we have a defending champion failing to make the playoffs for the first time in eight years. And a lot of folks had higher expectations of Boston too.
Still, we now gloriously turn our attention to the actual playoffs tonight, roughly two months that might be my wife's least favorite time of year—although hell if I'm not trying to make it one of the child's favorites. After all, the one common prediction that is still possible is the one I was and still am most hoping for: Blackhawks raising Lord Stanley once again.
I'm not going to be keeping track of the predictions of other sites this year (here's the ESPN and Sports Illustrated picks, if you're curious), but I'm guessing I probably won't be setting any records with my guess anyway. I've seen a lot of chalk in some places, but it just seems to me that this year is especially ripe for upsets. Now part of that is probably my own rooting interests (for this round, at least), but perhaps this could be something similar to 2006 when the lower seeds in an entire conference stunned the favorites.
Again, this could all just be wishful thinking, but I'm pretty confident that if nothing else, I'm bound to be pretty damn entertained over the course of the next several weeks.
Dammit, I had meant to type this up during one of my lunch breaks at work, but, well, you know. Been mighty quiet around these parts.
Anyway, I'm going to be limiting my comments to pretty much just the following intro. I had toyed with the picking the Cubs to win it all this year because of the Back to the Future 2 correlation, but it looks like Jesse Spector already beat me to that. I haven't looked for many of the predictions of others (we did get a copy of Sports Illustrated in which the magazine picked the Indians[!]), but I'm guessing that the Nationals have to be a pretty (deserving) popular favorite (once again).
Seeing as my predicted winner basically never wins the World Series, I went with the Dodgers last year and the logic paid off because Los Angeles did not win the World Series. I did get all five of the National League postseason teams correct, and I'm guessing most everybody has the same three division winners in that league again this year with the only variation being in the wild cards. The American League, on the other hand, is pretty up in the air.
I almost liked the idea of going with the Dodgers again just to jinx Hell-A. But if we're looking at recent history alternating Cardinals and Giants pennants, then this should be St. Louis going to the Series this year. So without any real explanation, here's my stabs at how each team is going to finish this year's baseball season:
