Sunday, May 19, 2013

NBA Playoff Conference Finals Predictions: <=== I spelled "Conference" correctly this year

There was a typo in the title when I made the picks for this round last year, but let's see if I can get the picks right this year too. I predicted all four conference semifinals series correctly last round, pretty much reinforcing my notion that (with the exception of the surprising Golden State Warriors) things are pretty much going as expected in this year's NBA Playoffs. This round though? This is where my viewership should probably increase.

There is once again a certain sense that all four of the remaining teams have legitimate shots at advancing, and hence, winning the title. While the defending champions are certainly still the popular favorite, the Heat will get their biggest challenge yet in the Pacers and the Spurs-Grizzlies series could be considered a tossup. If nothing else, it should be two spirited series to determine who goes to this year's NBA Finals.

Saturday, May 18, 2013

The Braves' First Quarter: And it all started so well ...

This season could not have gotten off to much better of a start than the way it did for the Braves, winning 12 of their first 13 games. Of course, since then? Well, 11-17 isn't quite as much to boast about. While Atlanta clings to first place, a mere game ahead of the Nationals, the 23-18 mark represents the lowest winning percentage of any of the current six division leader. Yes, that's right: Even lower than the woeful American League Central.

I could go on to lament that the Braves could slide out of the playoff picture entirely if caught by the Nats, but let us be honest: We're only 41 games into a very, very long season. Hell, the team slid to third place last year at the halfway point and still made the playoffs as a wild card. So it would rather premature to draw sweeping conclusions at this early point in the year.

As is always the case at this point of the season, we are reminded that there is still a lot of baseball yet to be played. And there is, more specifically, a lot more baseball to be played at the Ted, as Atlanta has played the least number of home games of any team in the league at this point. Furthermore, the club is in first place despite not having had their entire lineup play together in a single game yet this year. So, there's been some good (the explosive hitting of Justin Upton, the comeback story of Evan Gattis), some bad (the struggles of B.J. Upton, Jason Heyward and Dan Uggla), but ultimately, there is—as always—still a long way to go.

Friday, May 17, 2013

Final Thoughts on 2012-13 Chicago Bulls: Everybody Hurts

At long, long last, a very trying Bulls season concluded Wednesday night in Miami. While this campaign is destined to be remembered as "the year Derrick Rose didn't play a single game," the fact that this team not only made the playoffs but actually won a first-round series is a testament to the coaching abilities of Tom Thibodeau. Amazingly, Thibs finished eighth in the Coach of the Year voting, but he got maximum results from a minimal roster. And a banged up roster, at that. Nearly every member of this team battled through injuries while the league MVP from two seasons ago watched from the bench. 

There's certainly going to be people who have a hard time forgiving Rose for sitting out all year. How could he just sit and watch while teammates fought through their own pain and ailments? Couldn't he have played, even just for a few minutes, to energize his team and the hometown fans? Would it have made a difference? Much like the conclusion to the 2009-10 season, it felt like those holding out hope that Rose would return or that the remaining Bulls would overcome the odds were like poor ol' Candy.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Round Two NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions: The Agony and the Ecstasy

So I clearly made this little graphic before last night's Game 7s, otherwise I almost certainly would have used one of the many other Toronto images instead. And clearly the joy of those Lil Caps Fans was short-lived, although really no image captures the joy of playoff hockey quite as magnificently as that one. Either way, the opening round concluded and it did not disappoint. The 17 overtime games were a new record for the league, and five of the eight series saw the lower seeds advance.

I am fairly convinced at this point that the fortnight that makes up the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is my absolute favorite time of the sports calendar year. Fortunately, this year's playoffs did not see my favorite team get promptly eliminated. Thus, there is an even greater likelihood that I will be awake late at night and possibly leaping from the couch in delight. If last night's wild conclusion to the Leafs-Bruins demonstrated anything, it's that you can never really tell what's going to happen with these games. I was going to say we probably won't see anything like that again this postseason, but really ... all bets are off.

Sunday, May 05, 2013

Round Two NBA Playoffs Predictions: Here's to your health

I think "painful" is a fair description of this NBA season based on the number of players who have missed time and will be out for the remainder of this year's playoffs. The Bulls, obviously, were without Derrick Rose's services all year, the Lakers that were expected to be a juggernaut this season instead lost the team's star Kobe Bryant late in the regular season, and now Oklahoma City is without Russell Westbrook. Even that omits Boston being without Rajon Rondo, Indiana missing Danny Granger and Denver losing Danilo Gallinari. Is there anybody I forgot?

Of course there is. Injuries are a part of sports, but they've taken on a seemingly more significant role in this NBA season. I have spent the past month arguing with my uncle about whether it was right for Gregg Popovich to send three stars home before a regular season game with the Heat. My logic was that he was entitled to do so because he was doing what he felt would help his team win an NBA Championship. And now with the rest of the league being so beat up, his decision could take on a greater significance if the Spurs do win it all—or hell, even if they make it to the Finals.

Right now, let us all just hope that there will be some stars remaining by the time we do get to the NBA Finals, whomever it is that proves healthy enough to make it there.

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Round One NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions: No Shortened Path Here

When the NHL lockout finally ended, this was the moment that I was perhaps most looking forward to, the one I would have missed the most had the season been lost. While I have been sort of half-viewing portions of the NBA Playoffs thus far, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are an entirely different beast this time of year. I cannot turn away from any game on television—even those not involving the beloved Blackhawks. Indeed, over the coming days, I am hoping to stay up until the wee hours of the morning to watch multiple-overtime contests. Even if there is no late-night hockey, some regular prime time or weekend afternoon playoff hockey should be every bit as satisfying.

In years way past, I used to be pretty good at the predicting business when it came to the NHL Playoffs, but my performance has left a lot to be desired for the last couple years. I will hope to post a more successful record this year, but more than anything, I am ultimately just hoping for a certain outcome.

Monday, April 29, 2013

The Blackhawks' Fourth Quarter: No complaints (... yet)

You know, way back like 100 days ago when I made my original predictions for this NHL season, I said that this year's Stanley Cup winner would be the first team in five years to also win the Presidents' Cup for the most regular season points. Of course, I was talking about the St. Louis Blues, but I'm sure going to hope I was right about that other part now that the Hawks went and secured not only the best record in their division and in the conference, but the entire league as well. So, pressure's on. 

This final graphic of the regular season contains the team picture from the 1990-91 season the Blackhawks last brought home a Presidents' Trophy. Lest you forget, the Chicago team that year was immediately shown the door by a Minnesota North Stars team that went on to lose that year's Stanley Cup to Pittsburgh. This year, the Blackhawks will open the playoffs with Minnesota's newest hockey incarnation, the Wild, and the Penguins are once again favorites in the East. Considering that three of the last four year's Presidents' Trophy winners have been first round exits, there's some mild concern coming from these bad memories.

That nonsense is just damn silly though. Count your fucking blessings, I say, that Chicago is meeting a Minnesota team that stumbled in to the postseason and just barely qualified ahead of a Columbus Blue Jackets team that is nothing like the wretched versions of years past. As it turns out, I think this year's Western Conference playoff picture shapes up very much in the Hawks' favor and there was very, very little during this 48-game season that would lead me to believe any other team in the league can win a seven-game series against them. I know the Hawks never played an Eastern Conference opponent this regular season, but that's not really all that concerning. Sorry.

Friday, April 19, 2013

Round One NBA Playoff Predictions: With Comments!

I apologize that this year's first round picks are pretty much the exact same picks I had last year, but my feelings throughout these playoffs are likely to be the same for as long as LeBron James is playing in Miami. Once again, the Heat are the clear favorites, and once again, the Thunder are the popular expectation to be the final and perhaps strongest challenger. While I was tempted to believe at one time that the Indiana Pacers might be able to give the champs a legitimate threat, but the entire Eastern Conference Playoffs feels like a month-long formality. 

That isn't to say that I don't think there won't be some excitement somewhere in this year's playoffs. Hell, there's a number of games out West that I think I'll be interested in catching. Oh, and yeah, the Bulls are in it. And I guess technically I'm expecting a couple upsets. 

As I probably made a little clear last night, my expectations are not very high for this year's Chicago team (although I think the other United Center resident should still be working there into June). While I'm certainly expecting a Heat repeat, I'm openly rooting for David Stern's final Larry O'Brien presentation be handing a fifth trophy to Gregg Popovich. Seeing as the wife hates the Spurs, that isn't likely to be too popular in my household, but hey, it's not my fault the Mavs season is over.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

The Bulls' Fourth Quarter: Oh, the futility

At long last, the NBA regular season arrived at a somewhat merciful end. I will admit to watching some of the final night of action, games that had real seeding implications. For Bulls fans, we did not learn until the final night that Chicago gets to face a far more beatable Brooklyn team instead of a stronger Indiana squad in the first round of the playoffs. While the Nets certainly make for a more winnable series, what's really the reward? You get to be the next team to lose to the Heat? Yeah, maybe it won't be as embarrassing as getting pummeled in the Finals, but let's just say that I am not expecting to be asking to watch any Bulls games in June. Not even much of May. Certainly not without, well ... you know. That guy. 

There's a part of me that still quietly clings to the "Wouldn't it be cool" scenario in which Rose returns for the first game of the playoffs, the same point in the last season that was his last game. Or maybe Game 3, the first game in Chicago. No announcement, he's just suddenly in the starting lineup.

Of course, the reality is that you'll be watching the same group you've been seeing all year, still banged up and still grinding it out. Hell, even with Rose, that likely just means the team loses to Miami in five or six instead of four. There's admirable aspects to this year's Bulls team, but there just isn't much point beyond hoping for one playoff series win this year.

Saturday, April 06, 2013

The Blackhawks' Third Quarter: What Me Worry? (Maybe a little ...)

All good things must come to an end, I suppose. Alas, the 'Hawks finally suffered a regulation loss—five of them, actually—during this last 12-game stretch. I believe the New York Times referred to their 6-5-1 record during this span as fairly "pedestrian," which seems fair. Still, Chicago remains atop the Western Conference (although the Anaheim Ducks are still right behind, and took all three meetings with the Blackhawks this year—more on that in a sec though), and is now tied with a Pittsburgh team that won every single game they played in March for the most points in the league. Entering this final stretch of the shortened season, the playoffs are all but a certainty, but that does not mean there aren't certain concerns that need to be addressed if Chicago is to bring home its second Stanley Cup in four years.

First (and foremost, in my mind) is the number of frightening late period/late game collapses. I haven't been keeping track, but there has been a disturbing number of goals allowed in the final two minutes of periods this year, and whereas this year began with me constantly expecting the Blackhawks to come back from one-goal deficits late in games, I now fear that they'll inevitably cough up any third period lead they have. This trend is most certainly not a good thing, and it needs to stop before the playoffs begin. Enter the playoffs with an inability to protect a lead, and a first-round exit is not out of the question.

And while I noted last quarter that Chicago had two of the best goaltenders in the league, there's the annual concern about whether Corey Crawford really is your "number one" guy in between the pipes. I'm a bit more skeptical about this issue (Antti Niemi was facing similar doubts toward the end of the 2010 regular season, but that turned out OK), but Crawford can't afford to allow the softies that helped Phoenix oust the 'Hawks last year. Emery is certainly more than capable as a backup right now, so it's not like we're stuck with a Huet-ish alternative here.

Similarly, there's been A LOT of venom directed at Dave Bolland, who has been basically invisible, borderline dead this season. It was kind of ironic that the goal that finally ended his more than month-long scoring drought didn't actually involve him taking a shot. Again, like the goalie situation, Bolland similarly struggled in the 2010 regular season before making an impact in the playoffs. A lot of the things he does to get under the skin of opponents does not come up on the stat sheet anyway, kind of like what he did to help set up this goal.

Finally, there's the underwhelming faceoff numbers, an issue that is supposedly addressed by the one notable trade Stan Bowman made before the deadline, acquiring Michal Handzus from San Jose. The Blackhawks didn't make any big-name moves like the arms race that is going on in the East between Boston and Pittsburgh, but I'm not sure they really needed to either. The team has been without the contributions of both Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp during these last dozen games, and those returns can only help.