Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Week Eight Power Rankings

So here's my newest theory after eight weeks: Bet low on the late games. I'm sure I will find some sort of actual mathematical formula that justifies this little thing I do every week by about, oh, Week 17 to secure a first-place finish. (Actually, that's a lie; I'm probably going to finish second ... twice.)

As for last week, I did a game worse than the week before, going 8-6 with four of those losses coming from three late Sunday games and the Monday night one-point gamble on the Colts (which clearly didn't pay off, thank you very much).

That brings me to 70-46 (.603) on the year, which is pretty smack dab in the middle of the experts at Yahoo! and ESPN. My score of 74 points (9th place out of 25) last week was a single point improvement over the previous week and kept me in 8th place for the year (out of 25) with 591 points. While I'm 52 points behind the leader for the year, I'm a single point behind 7th place, three points behind 6th and only six points from 5th. A solid week wouldn't put 4th place out of question either, as that's only a 14-point margin.

Now, as for how I'm feeling about the teams around the NFL? Well, let's have a look:

1. (3) DETROIT LIONS
  • Last week: Lost to Washington, 25-17 (+13)
  • Actual Record: 0-7
  • My predicted record: 2-5
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 70
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 10
  • Plus/Minus: +60
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
One of the times I picked them to win this season was their first meeting with the Bears. I don't know when I'll be picking them again.
2. (1) NEW YORK GIANTS
  • Last week: Beat Pittsburgh, 21-14 (-3)
  • Actual Record: 6-1
  • My predicted record: 6-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: 73
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 3
  • Points taken from me with losses: 12
  • Plus/Minus: +58
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Luckily, the first number they register on the points taken from me with a win was a low one.
3. (4) HOUSTON TEXANS
  • Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 35-6 (+14)
  • Actual Record: 3-4
  • My predicted record: 4-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: 29
  • Points scored for me with losses: 24
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 2
  • Plus/Minus: +51
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
That's remarkable they've only cost me two points this season. They don't fill me with the confidence, say, Philadelphia does.
4. (2) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  • Last week: Lost to Seattle, 34-13 (-10)
  • Actual Record: 2-6
  • My predicted record: 2-6
  • Points scored for me with wins: 11
  • Points scored for me with losses: 45
  • Points taken from me with wins: 3
  • Points taken from me with losses: 10
  • Plus/Minus: +43
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
A pretty deflating loss to the Seahawks and I have to agree with those who say that Mike Singletary throwing his player under the bus should have been done in the locker room and not in front of the media. But he's new to this and it'll get him some face time.
5. (10) CINCINNATI BENGALS
  • Last week: Lost to Houston, 35-6 (+14)
  • Actual Record: 0-8
  • My predicted record: 2-6
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 61
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 20
  • Plus/Minus: +41
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Twenty points is an awful lot to have to admit having trusted this team to win with, but just wait until this week's picks when they play Jacksonville.
6. (7) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
  • Last week: Beat Atlanta, 27-14 (+6)
  • Actual Record: 4-3
  • My predicted record: 3-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 28
  • Points scored for me with losses: 11
  • Points taken from me with wins: 1
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +38
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Yep, nobody's cost me less this season than these guys. And even then, I remember knowing that I had picked the Steelers more with my heart than my head.
7. (8) ST. LOUIS RAMS
  • Last week: Lost to New England, 23-16 (+7)
  • Actual Record: 2-5
  • My predicted record: 0-7
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 58
  • Points taken from me with wins: 22
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +36
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Don't worry, guys. I swear I'll pick you one of these weeks.
8. (12) NEW YORK JETS
  • Last week: Beat Kansas City, 28-24 (+9)
  • Actual Record: 4-3
  • My predicted record: 5-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: 39
  • Points scored for me with losses: 5
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 12
  • Plus/Minus: +32
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
That was real cute, the way they made it look like they might give one up to the Chiefs. Real cute. Don't do it again.
9. (8) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  • Last week: Beat San Diego, 37-32 (+2)
  • Actual Record: 4-4
  • My predicted record: 6-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: 35
  • Points scored for me with losses: 13
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 17
  • Plus/Minus: +31
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They don't play too many tough defenses for the rest of the year, so their playoff hopes are still very real.
9. (5) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
  • Last week: Lost to New York Giants, 21-14 (-3)
  • Actual Record: 5-2
  • My predicted record: 6-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: 38
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 3
  • Points taken from me with losses: 4
  • Plus/Minus: +31
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
That's a bad break, having to come off a tough loss to the Giants and then go right into Washington the next week. But they need to respond.
11. (6) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
  • Last week: Lost to Dallas, 13-9 (-8)
  • Actual Record: 5-3
  • My predicted record: 4-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 21
  • Points scored for me with losses: 21
  • Points taken from me with wins: 9
  • Points taken from me with losses: 8
  • Plus/Minus: +25
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
It's too easy in hindsight to second-guess putting eight points on them to beat Dallas. But it sure felt like the hardest loss to take last weekend, even more so than the 10 I had on the Niners.
12. (15) ARIZONA CARDINALS
  • Last week: Lost to Carolina, 27-23 (+12)
  • Actual Record: 4-3
  • My predicted record: 2-5
  • Points scored for me with wins: 14
  • Points scored for me with losses: 25
  • Points taken from me with wins: 16
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +23
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
That matchup next week in St. Louis doesn't exactly have me brimming with confidence.
12. (12) MINNESOTA VIKINGS
  • Last week: BYE
  • Actual Record: 3-4
  • My predicted record: 1-6
  • Points scored for me with wins: 13
  • Points scored for me with losses: 26
  • Points taken from me with wins: 16
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +23
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
I'm inclined to make the rare pick for them to win as they come off a bye to host the Texans.
14. (14) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
  • Last week: Lost to Tennessee, 31-21 (-1)
  • Actual Record: 3-4
  • My predicted record: 6-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: 29
  • Points scored for me with losses: 3
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 12
  • Plus/Minus: +20
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They have to come off the loss to Tennessee that killed their rep and have New England come to their new building, where winning has been a tall order.
15. (18) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
  • Last week: Lost to New York Jets, 28-24 (+9)
  • Actual Record: 1-6
  • My predicted record: 1-6
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 44
  • Points taken from me with wins: 13
  • Points taken from me with losses: 13
  • Plus/Minus: +18
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Three out of their next four are at home, but look at all the opponents: Tampa Bay, at San Diego, New Orleans and Buffalo.
15. (20) OAKLAND RAIDERS
  • Last week: Lost to Baltimore, 29-10 (+11)
  • Actual Record: 2-5
  • My predicted record: 0-7
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 43
  • Points taken from me with wins: 25
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +18
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Getting Atlanta at home could be the turnaround they need ... or it could be more of the same.
17. (21) BALTIMORE RAVENS
  • Last week: Beat Oakland, 29-10 (+11)
  • Actual Record: 4-3
  • My predicted record: 3-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 24
  • Points scored for me with losses: 11
  • Points taken from me with wins: 14
  • Points taken from me with losses: 4
  • Plus/Minus: +17
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
I was initially edgy about putting 12 points on them last week, but they turned out to be a fairly overwhelming vote of confidence all around the pool and ultimately delivered.
17. (22) CAROLINA PANTHERS
  • Last week: Beat Arizona, 27-23 (+12)
  • Actual Record: 5-3
  • My predicted record: 4-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 32
  • Points scored for me with losses: 4
  • Points taken from me with wins: 11
  • Points taken from me with losses: 8
  • Plus/Minus: +17
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
A bye can only help as they rest up to go into Oakland.
17. (10) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
  • Last week: Beat San Francisco, 34-13 (-10)
  • Actual Record: 2-5
  • My predicted record: 3-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 10
  • Points scored for me with losses: 28
  • Points taken from me with wins: 10
  • Points taken from me with losses: 11
  • Plus/Minus: +17
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
We had just been commenting how quickly they'd risen, but then the Niners went and rolled over for them when we least expected it.
20. (22) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  • Last week: Beat St. Louis, 23-16 (+7)
  • Actual Record: 5-2
  • My predicted record: 6-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: 32
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 3
  • Points taken from me with losses: 17
  • Plus/Minus: +12
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
And just like that, those hated Pats have a share of the lead in the AFC East again.
21. (16) GREEN BAY PACKERS
  • Last week: BYE
  • Actual Record: 4-3
  • My predicted record: 5-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: 15
  • Points scored for me with losses: 9
  • Points taken from me with wins: 5
  • Points taken from me with losses: 9
  • Plus/Minus: +10
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
How's that for a break? The Pack goes to Tennessee while the Bears team they share the NFC North lead with gets the hapless Lions.
22. (27) WASHINGTON REDSKINS
  • Last week: Beat Detroit, 25-17 (+13)
  • Actual Record: 6-2
  • My predicted record: 5-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: 27
  • Points scored for me with losses: 16
  • Points taken from me with wins: 20
  • Points taken from me with losses: 14
  • Plus/Minus: +9
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
The Steelers don't make for a pushover going into the week off.
23. (16) CLEVELAND BROWNS
  • Last week: Beat Jacksonville, 23-17 (-4)
  • Actual Record: 3-4
  • My predicted record: 1-6
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 33
  • Points taken from me with wins: 21
  • Points taken from me with losses: 6
  • Plus/Minus: +6
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
On the lighter side of things, I'm now somewhat a supporter of the Browns, seeing as I spent $45 on a brown team sweatshirt to keep me warm in Ohio last weekend.
24. (19) BUFFALO BILLS
  • Last week: Lost to Miami, 25-16 (-5)
  • Actual Record: 5-2
  • My predicted record: 5-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: 28
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 15
  • Points taken from me with losses: 10
  • Plus/Minus: +3
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
I'm beginning to sense we'll see the wheels start rolling off pretty soon. Don't we have one of these surprise teams every year that wins their first four or so and then ultimately misses the playoffs?
25. (25) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
  • Last week: Lost to New Orleans, 37-32 (+2)
  • Actual Record: 3-5
  • My predicted record: 4-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 11
  • Points scored for me with losses: 6
  • Points taken from me with wins: 2
  • Points taken from me with losses: 14
  • Plus/Minus: +1
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Nobody needs the week off more than these guys.
26. (29) ATLANTA FALCONS
  • Last week: Lost to Philadelphia, 27-14 (+6)
  • Actual Record: 4-3
  • My predicted record: 1-6
  • Points scored for me with wins: 5
  • Points scored for me with losses: 19
  • Points taken from me with wins: 25
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: -1
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
After going to the west coast, they get three straight home games.
26. (24) DENVER BRONCOS
  • Last week: BYE
  • Actual Record: 4-3
  • My predicted record: 7-0
  • Points scored for me with wins: 21
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 22
  • Plus/Minus: -1
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Still waiting to bet on them to lose, but I'm guessing it won't be too long.
28. (25) MIAMI DOLPHINS
  • Last week: Beat Buffalo, 25-16 (-5)
  • Actual Record: 3-4
  • My predicted record: 1-6
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 27
  • Points taken from me with wins: 29
  • Points taken from me with losses: 4
  • Plus/Minus: -6
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They're fast becoming the new Jacksonville.
29. (30) TENNESSEE TITANS
  • Last week: Beat Indianapolis, 31-21 (-1)
  • Actual Record: 7-0
  • My predicted record: 2-5
  • Points scored for me with wins: 11
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 19
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: -8
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
I still really want them to lost, but Green Bay isn't sounding like the opponent to do it.
30. (31) CHICAGO BEARS
  • Last week: BYE
  • Actual Record: 4-3
  • My predicted record: 6-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: 10
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 1
  • Points taken from me with losses: 22
  • Plus/Minus: -13
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
As mentioned before, Detroit seems too easy to look past——and this is a Bears team with a knack for losing to teams they should've beat.
30. (28) DALLAS COWBOYS
  • Last week: Beat Tampa Bay, 13-9 (-8)
  • Actual Record: 5-3
  • My predicted record: 6-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: 31
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 14
  • Points taken from me with losses: 30
  • Plus/Minus: -13
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
My, my ... how far they've fallen.
32. (32) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
  • Last week: Lost to Cleveland, 23-17 (-4)
  • Actual Record: 3-4
  • My predicted record: 5-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: 3
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 12
  • Points taken from me with losses: 21
  • Plus/Minus: -30
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
I mean, what do I say about this team? Look at that! Three miserable points! That's all they've earned me so far this year. Awful, awful, awful ...

16-point games: 2-0
15-point games: 2-1
14-point games: 6-1
13-point games: 6-2
12-point games: 6-2
11-point games: 6-2
10-point games: 6-2
9-point games: 4-4
8-point games: 3-5
7-point games: 4-4
6-point games: 4-4
5-point games: 2-6
4-point games: 5-3
3-point games: 4-4
2-point games: 5-3
1-point games: 5-3

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