Thursday, November 12, 2009

Is it Thursday already?

So it is, and since I just finished my Power Rankings, oh, eight seconds ago (isn't that a Luke Perry movie?), I have yet to determine how my picks will be laid out this week. It's not easy going 6-7 every week, you know.

I kid, of course, because there will be 15 games this week so it's literally impossible for me to pull off a trifecta of consecutive weeks of the exact same suckiness. Nonetheless, I am obligated to get this particular prediction for this evening's game in before the kickoff, so here goes:

2 points
Chicago Bears (4-4) over San Francisco 49ers (3-5)
+24/-9 : +40/45/-5 : +4/+16

I've attempted the temptation to call the bro-in-law out for being a homer and picking his Cowboys to win every single week. But at least his team is 6-2, and while I have picked one loss for my Monsters of the Midway, they actually won that game—and lost four other ones. So this is a litmus test of sorts, not so much for the remainder of the Bears season (I'll more than likely still pick them, so who am I kidding?) as for this weekend. What I failed to mention in my Power Rankings summary is that my achilles heel in predictions for all sports is my tendency to allow what I'd like to see happen trump what actually will happen. This year's baseball playoffs were a fine example of that, but I'd also like to think that picking the fucking Lakers to win yet another NBA Championship signifies I'm still at least a little bit objective.

Anyway, the realist in me knows the Bears defense is something along the lines of catastrophic so far and unless there has been an unbelievable focus on improved tackling during the short rest between Sunday's loss to the Cardinals and tonight's game against the Niners, Frank Gore could very well run for 200 yards. If Lovie Smith's squad was still the team that gets off the bus running, my vote would go the other way here. But instead, the Bears have last week's leading passer and an air attack that's just outside the Top 10 in the league going against a San Fran team that ranks in the bottom 10 in pass defense. And that said, I'm willing to gamble two measly points on Jay Cutler's arm essentially carrying Chicago to victory at Candlestick. The fact that the two teams are basically polar opposites in the number of defensive penalties—San Fran leads the league with 65 while only the Jaguars have committed fewer than the Bears, who are tied for 30th with 37 (they're dead even offensively in the same category, each with 51 on the year)—should indicate the critical level of discipline that I'm thinking will be the story.

I've heard fans on the radio bitch and moan about wanting a coach with more "fire and passion," and while I'm sure that group may get a chubby from some of Samurai Mike's antics, press conferences and sideline displays, this game will instead prove that Lovie Smith's cool, quiet sideline demeanor is indeed an asset.

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