Week 12 Picks

The Yahoo Users scored best of anybody for last week while the score from my picks was third out of the six. But it was less than 10 points separating the best order from the worst, mostly due to very similar picks. This week should be a different story and I've been putting off making my own predictions because about half the schedule is pretty shaky on the certainty in my books—helped none by the Giants, a pick most everyone had, disappointing us all on Thursday. I'm tempted to go all-out and pick eight upsets since I know the leader always picks the favorites.

While I'm thinking about it, here's how my numbers came out for the week and how four other "sheets" would look this week:

PFW Spread		Brian Burke	Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	My Numbers
15.5—Bengals (14)		16—Bengals (.95)	16—Bengals (98%)	16—Cowboys (26-14)	16—Bengals (102)
15.5—Cowboys (14)		15—Chargers (.93)	14.5—Chargers (97%)	15—Chargers (29-16)	15—Packers (99)
14—Chargers (13 ½)		14—Cowboys (.92)	14.5—Falcons (97%)	14—Bengals (25-14)	14—Falcons (85)
13—Falcons (11)		13—Packers (.85)	12.5—Vikings (96%)	13—Packers (28-19)	13—Cowboys (78)
12—Vikings (10 ½)		12—Vikings (.81)	12.5—Eagles (96%)	12—Falcons (28-19)	12—Chargers (75)
11—Eagles (9 ½)		11—Falcons (.80)	10.5—Cowboys (95%)	11—Vikings (28-20)	11—Colts (71)
10—Packers (8)		10—Eagles (.78)	10.5—Packers (95%)	10—Eagles (24-17)	10—Seahawks (68)
9—Giants (6)		9—Colts (.70)	9—Dolphins (86%)	9—Colts (25-22)	9—Cardinals (54)
7.5—Dolphins (3 ½)		8—Jets (.69)	8—Colts (85%)	8—Dolphins (21-18)	8—Jaguars (46)
7.5—Colts (3 ½)		7—Saints (.66)	7—Giants (76%)	7—Seahawks (22-19)	7—Vikings (43)
4.5—Patriots (3)		6—49ers (.57)	6—Seahawks (74%)	6—Saints (29-26)	6—Eagles (42)
4.5—Seahawks (3)		5—Steelers (.56)	5—49ers (63%)	5—Giants (23-20)	5—Saints (39)
4.5—Jets (3)		4—Broncos (.55)	4—Saints (58%)	4—Jets (22-19)	4—Giants (36)
4.5—49ers (3)		2.5—Bills (.54)	3—Cardinals (52%)	3—49ers (22-20)	3—Dolphins (30)
1.5—Titans (1)		2.5—Seahawks (.54)	1.5—Jets (51%)	2—Cardinals (25-23)	2—Ravens (12)
1.5—Steelers (1)		1—Titans (.53)	1.5—Ravens (51%)	1—Ravens (10-10)	1—Jets (5)
113.5 points (12-4)		131 points (15-1)	117 points (13-3)	121 points (13-3)	112 points (12-4)

OK, on to the decisions:

16 points
Cincinnati Bengals (7-3) over Cleveland Browns (1-9)
-18/-37 : +65/102/-37 : 0/+83

Battle of Ohio would have me a little more nervous if Cincy weren't just coming off of a devastating loss that was the result of them essentially giving a game away in teh final seconds. While Cleveland's offense finally got a fast start last week (against the Lions, mind you), they of course upheld their image as a bad team by also finding a way to lose that game. A win here means the Bengals sweep the entire division, an impressive feat that would be a first for the franchise.

15 points
San Diego Chargers (7-3) over Kansas City Chiefs (3-7)
+43/+7 : +81/75/+6 : -1/+38

Norv Turner finally has the Bolts playing the kind of ball many of their believers had hyped them to do all year. But after the typical slow start, San Diego's finally firing on all gears again and should use Kansas City to take another step closer to another AFC West title.

14 points
Atlanta Falcons (5-5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-9)
+21/+26 : +111/85/+26 : 0/+90

The Falcons should benefit from being back in the Georgia Dome after giving a valiant effort in the Big Apple last week. A significantly less talented Bucs squad should help, but I don't rule out Tampa coming out strong and giving Atlanta an initial scare before the Birds fly away with it.

13 points
Minnesota Vikings (9-1) over Chicago Bears (4-6)
+68/-4 : +61/43/+18 : +22/-7

Breaks my heart a bit to know this is the biggest I've bet against my boys so far this year, but even if Jay Cutler is able to put on a bravura performance and not get completely decimated by Jared Allen all game, I just don't see how the banged-up Bears defense has any hope of slowing down Adrian Peterson or (gulp) MVP candidate Brett Favre.

12 points
Philadelphia Eagles (6-4) over Washington Redskins (3-7)
+20/+4 : +58/42/+16 : +12/+38

I could've sworn that I read somewhere that Jason Campbell is undefeated in Philadelphia, but that's going to be a might tall order this time around when considering the teammates around him are dropping like flies these days. The Skins will be starting their 10th offensive lineman this year and running back Rock Cartwright is making his first start in nearly six years.

11 points
Green Bay Packers (6-4) over Detroit Lions (2-8)
+12/-5 : +94/99/-5 : 0/+82

10 points
Dallas Cowboys (7-3) over Oakland Raiders (3-7)
+51/-1 : +81/78/+3 : +4/+30

9 points

New York Giants (6-4) over Denver Broncos (6-4)
+42/0 : +43/38/-5 : +1/-5


8 points
Miami Dolphins (5-5) over Buffalo Bills (3-7)
+13/+19 : +52/30/+22 : +3/+39

Brian Burke's numbers up there indicate that I've got good reason to think that maybe this could be the week Buffalo gets a win for Perry Fewell at home. Terrell Owens being matched up against a rookie corner doesn't really help either, but the Fins have been winning on the ground in getting back to .500. While the Bills were able to slow down the Jags last week and keep MJD under 100 yards, Miami runs more often for more yards per game.

7 points
Seattle Seahawks (3-7) over St. Louis Rams (1-9)
+20/+52 : +120/68/+52 : 0/+100

It was tempting to finally weigh this possibly being my first time picking St. Louis in the two years I've been doing weekly predictions. And while the Rams have been oh-so-close these past few weeks, Kyle Boller starting at QB this week doesn't have me brimming with confidence about St. Lou's chances. While the Seahawks were somewhat humiliated in their attempts to run the ball against Minnesota last week, they should stand a better chance against a bottom five Rams defense against the rush.

6 points
New York Jets (4-6) over Carolina Panthers (4-6)
-13/+2 : +15/5/+10 : +8/+28

One where I just couldn't be happy either way, so it makes sense to go with the home team that's just as desperate for a win as the visitor. The questions surrounding the condition of Julius Peppers—not to mention the loss of linebacker Landon Johnson, the bad knee of DeAngelo Williams, the inconsistency of Jake Delhomme—doesn't help Carolina's case.

5 points
New England Patriots (7-3) over New Orleans Saints (10-0)
+48/-3 : +46/39/+85 : +88/-2

It should be massively entertaining, no doubt about that. The Patriots are still living down their squandering of an opportunity to knock off the league's other undefeated team, so I'm guessing that New England recognizes capitalizing on the opportunity to end the perfect season hopes of another team will serve as motivation enough to help them put it all behind them and get ready to reassert themselves as one of the favorites in the playoffs.

4 points

Tennessee Titans (4-6) over Arizona Cardinals (7-3)
-10/+16 : -32/54/+22 : +6/-22

Arizona has to lose at some point on the road, right? And if Kurt Warner can't go, then it's a done deal in my mind. But even supposing Warner does start and helps the Cards torch the Tennessee pass defense, Arizona's rushing defense—which admittedly ranks in the top ten—will have enough problems with Chris Johnson, let alone Vince Young when he's not busy taking advantage of a weak pass defense (ranks in bottom ten).

3 points
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) over San Francisco 49ers (4-6)
+17/-10 : +40/46/-6 : +4/+23

Can you believe the Jaguars are in the playoff picture? Yeah, neither can I. The Niners need a win pretty bad and a West Coast trip is always rough for any visiting team, but I'm opting to give Jacksonville the benefit of the doubt this week—albeit for three points. Make me a believer, Jack.

2 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) over Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
+10/-1 : +12/12/+24 : +25/+2

Initially went with the Ravens, realizing only now that I've bet against the Steelers just once this season—and was wrong about it, too. Seriously, it's essentially a must-have for both teams and while I would like to see Baltimore help muscle the champs out of the playoff picture (I do love underdogs), I have a sneaking suspicion that Big Ben and Pittsburgh finds a way to squeak out a win in a nationally televised game.

1 point
Houston Texans (5-5) over Indianapolis Colts (10-0)
+2/-6 : -1/71/+70 : +76/-3

Here's to living dangerously, folks. I've got both of the undefeated teams remaining getting their first loss this week. The Colts are talking about wrapping up the division this weekend, but Houston's now back at .500 and talking about trying to get into the playoffs as a wild-card. The Texans have suffered a couple of heartbreakers these past two games, but their luck is bound to change and my guess is that it comes at the expense of an Indianapolis team they've historically played close to with far less riding on the outcome.