Week 10 Power Rankings

I made the most of those two extra games last week in a way, going 8-7 with my picks last week and finally finishing with a winning record after two straight 6-7 weeks. No more byes for the remainder of the season, which I actually think should help me since it has become apparent that my standing in my pools this year is entirely because of my point allocation and not my straight-up prediction ability. My 91-53 mark on the year is second-worst in the Yahoo pool I'm in and yet I'm in third place.

As for the other pool in which I regularly reference (the bigger one, we'll call it), my score of 77 points last week was good for 9th place out of 13. My 811 points on the year still has me in second place for the overall race, but I'm now 30 points behind the leader and only eight points ahead of third place. So I'll need some luck to really go my way over the final weeks to make a push for first.

I suppose I could still get into the playoffs in fantasy football, but I'm pretty sure that mathematical elimination is coming for me in the near future after getting trounced last weekend. This week I'll be playing the resident cellar-dweller in that league in a battle I've said is the equivalent of the Browns-Lions game this weekend.

In the straight-up comparisons here, Merrill Hoge from ESPN stayed hot and posted an 11-4 mark along with Seth Wickersham. Michael Silver from Yahoo finished right behind them at 10-5. Pete Prisco from CBS Sports as well as Eric Allen and Adam Schefter finished 9-6. Jason Cole, Charles Robinson, Mike Golic, Chris Mortensen and Mark Schlereth all shared the same 8-7 score I had. Ron Jaworski's 8-6 mark is technically a better percentage than that last group, but we'll leave his score here for being a pud. And poor bro-in-law brings up the rear this week with the only losing mark of 7-8.

Now, on the year (numbers in parentheses still indicating where the dude stood in the rankings last week):

1. (1) Merril Hoge, ESPN: 100-44 (.694)
2. (3) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 98-46 (.681)
3. (1) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 97-47 (.674)
3. (3) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 97-47 (.674)
5. (3) Charles Robinson, Yahoo: 96-48 (.667)
5. (3) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 96-48 (.667)
7. (7) Mike Golic, ESPN: 95-48 (.664)
8. (10) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 95-49 (.660)
9. (8) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 88-46 (.657)
10. (8) LEV, crazy colored glasses: 93-51 (.646)
11. (10) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 92-52 (.639)
11. (12) Eric Allen, ESPN: 92-52 (.639)
13. (12) YOURS TRULY: 91-53 (.632)
14. (14) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 88-56 (.611)

And now pressure's on me to go against the right grains if I want to finish atop that list. Still seven weeks to go, so nothing's impossible here. Still, when looking over my Power Rankings, it's obvious that the top ten teams scoring the highest for me are all effectively safe choices as either consistent winners or losers. And I no longer have any team with which my predictions are unblemished, although I have yet to pick against the Giants for one reason or another.

Anyway, here's how the 32 teams in the league are doing for me this year:

1. (1) ST. LOUIS RAMS

• Last week: Lost to New Orleans, 28-23 (+15)
  
• Actual Record: 1-8
• My predicted record: 0-9
• My record at predicting their record: 8-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +98
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +92
  

It's not looking too good for St. Louis to be picked by me at all for the second straight year. The team just placed its third defensive lineman on injured reserve, bringing the total for the year to nine Rams now. And while Steven Jackson could possibly run himself into the record books as the franchise's leading rusher, the thing you're wondering this weekend has to be why there remains so much love for Kurt Warner.

2. (3) CLEVELAND BROWNS

• Last week: Lost to Baltimore, 16-0 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 1-8
• My predicted record: 0-9
• My record at predicting their record: 8-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +84
• Points taken from me with wins: -7
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +77

Cleveland is certainly not looking any better for getting a prediction to win either, even though there's a good amount of softies left on their schedule with a visit to Detroit this week and the 2-7 Chiefs followed by the 2-7 Raiders around Christmas. But you might notice a pattern in where the Browns find themselves on those more traditional Power Rankings around the league. The Cleveland offense is setting all new sorts of records for futility as it's been more than a full year since either a Browns running back or wide receiver scored a touchdown.

3. (3) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• Last week: Lost to Miami, 25-23 (+12)
  
• Actual Record: 1-8
• My predicted record: 0-9
• My record at predicting their record: 8-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +89
• Points taken from me with wins: -13
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +76
  

Poor Tampa Bay has to try and stop the undefeated Saints this week—and then gets to travel to Louisiana to play them again five weeks after that. They're already focusing on using the draft to help rebuild an inept defense—one their rookie coach didn't give much of a vote of confidence to by saying he needs bigger guys. But Josh Freeman's at least been giving fans a glimpse of hope.

3. (5) DETROIT LIONS

• Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 27-10 (+14)
  
• Actual Record: 1-8
• My predicted record: 1-8
• My record at predicting their record: 7-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +90
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
• Points taken from me with losses: -6
  
• Plus/Minus: +76
  

The latest and perhaps saddest chapter in their historic rivalry with the Browns this weekend could represent the team's best chance to win a game for the rest of the year. Needless to say, it's already been blacked out.

5. (6) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

• Last week: Beat St. Louis, 28-23 (+15)
  
• Actual Record: 9-0
• My predicted record: 7-2
• My record at predicting their record: 7-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +74
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -2
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +72
  

You have to take every game seriously when you're trying to go undefeated. With last week's five-point win over the one-win Rams being keyed by the two scores they got from Reggie Bush, how much of a concern is it that they might not have him this Sunday in Tampa?

6. (2) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• Last week: Beat New England, 35-34 (-3)
  
• Actual Record: 9-0
• My predicted record: 8-1
• My record at predicting their record: 8-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +72
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +69
  

Looks to me like the Colts can begin counting me in for thinking they can run the regular season just as soon as they win these next two games—both of which are on the road. I can only assume that my pessimism is the result of a media bias against Indy.

7. (8) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• Last week: Lost to Arizona, 31-20 (+8)
  
• Actual Record: 3-6
• My predicted record: 5-4
• My record at predicting their record: 7-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +27
• Points scored for me with losses: +39
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
  
• Plus/Minus: +59

Why wouldn't Matt Hasselbeck be excited to go play in the Metrodome against his former mentor again and be reminded just one more time about the "We want the ball and we’re going to score!" thing?

8. (7) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Last week: Beat Oakland, 16-10 (+1)
  
• Actual Record: 2-7
• My predicted record: 2-7
• My record at predicting their record: 7-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +1
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +59
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
• Points taken from me with losses: -2
  
• Plus/Minus: +53
  

Unlike the previous train wrecks on this list, the Chiefs have already gotten two win predictions out of me. Cleveland appears to be the next best opportunity for them to do well, which is coincidentally when they'll be getting their top wide receiver back from serving a four-game suspension. Between now and then? Grab more wrestlers, I guess.

9. (15) MINNESOTA VIKINGS

• Last week: Beat Detroit, 27-10 (+14)
  
• Actual Record: 8-1
• My predicted record: 6-3
• My record at predicting their record: 7-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +55
• Points scored for me with losses: +4
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +51
  

Playing the Seahawks calls attention to the "poison pills" involved in NFL contracts, expected “to be one of many contentious issues” when that collective bargaining agreement gets worked out. Maybe by then the Vikings will have figured out if they're staying in the Metrodome.

10. (10) OAKLAND RAIDERS

• Last week: Lost to Kansas City, 16-10 (+1)
  
• Actual Record: 2-7
• My predicted record: 1-8
• My record at predicting their record: 8-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +4
• Points scored for me with losses: +59
• Points taken from me with wins: -14
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +49
  

JaMarcus Russell can grab a seat for now, but let's not assume the Raiders have completely given up on him. Even Ochocinco's got his back, blaming it on Russell's supporting cast. With only two exceptions, the schedule's got them playing clubs with winning records for the rest of the year.

11. (14) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

• Last week: Beat Philadelphia, 31-23 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 6-3
• My predicted record: 4-5
• My record at predicting their record: 7-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +38
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +13
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +45
  

They didn't wait until the last game of the year to take over the division, but they'll have to do it by beating the Broncos in Denver this time around. Hopefully the lawsuits from crazy skanks can be shrugged off.

12. (12) ATLANTA FALCONS

• Last week: Lost to Carolina, 28-19 (-5)
  
• Actual Record: 5-4
• My predicted record: 5-4
• My record at predicting their record: 7-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +26
• Points scored for me with losses: +22
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
• Plus/Minus: +40
  

They don't seem like such a lock for the playoffs anymore (basically, that's the same for any team not leading their division), and you can always spot the guy who's on my fantasy team when he goes down with an injury. How long is he out for? Oh, could be six weeks, but better keep him in the lineup because he ... might play?

13. (9) WASHINGTON REDSKINS

• Last week: Beat Denver, 27-17 (-11)
  
• Actual Record: 3-6
• My predicted record: 5-4
• My record at predicting their record: 6-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +25
• Points scored for me with losses: +38
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -11
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -13
• Plus/Minus: +39
  

Now that the Redskins don't have to worry about going to the Supreme Court to defend their names, sure you can bring those signs to their games again.

13. (10) DALLAS COWBOYS

• Last week: Lost to Green Bay, 17-7 (-9)
  
• Actual Record: 6-3
• My predicted record: 6-3
• My record at predicting their record: 7-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +49
• Points scored for me with losses: +4
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -9
  
• Plus/Minus: +39

How bad was the officiating at Lambeau? I actually sympathize with the Cowboys on both of those points of contention. One had a particularly devastating effect that dramatically changed the game. Oh and Roy Williams, isn't off the hook here either. You, sir, have been called out.

13. (13) CAROLINA PANTHERS

• Last week: Beat Atlanta, 28-19 (-5)
  
• Actual Record: 4-5
• My predicted record: 3-6
• My record at predicting their record: 6-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +18
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +41
• Points taken from me with wins: -13
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
  
• Plus/Minus: +39

Nobody can get over those final four games they've got this year (in New England, Minnesota comes to town, at the Giants, and finish with the Saints at home), and already being five back in the division leaves the only viable option pretty much being a wild card. That means they must certainly beat the three teams they play before that four-game stretch, starting with a Miami team of the same record that a runs an offensive style Carolina should know pretty well considering that they were the ones where Dan Henning started doing the wildcat.

16. (17) NEW YORK GIANTS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 5-4
• My predicted record: 9-0
• My record at predicting their record: 5-4
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +55
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -20
• Plus/Minus: +35
  

They limped into their bye week on a four-game losing streak and I'm still waiting to pick them to lose. My latest excuse not to will probably have something to do with the return of Aaron Ross.

16. (19) MIAMI DOLPHINS

• Last week: Beat Tampa Bay, 25-23 (+12)
  
• Actual Record: 4-5
• My predicted record: 4-5
• My record at predicting their record: 7-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +14
• Points scored for me with losses: +25
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -1
  
• Plus/Minus: +35
  

The loss of Ronnie Brown will probably be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

18. (16) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

• Last week: Lost to Indianapolis, 35-34 (-3)
  
• Actual Record: 6-3
• My predicted record: 8-1
• My record at predicting their record: 5-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +54
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
• Points taken from me with losses: -18
• Plus/Minus: +33

It was good to see Brian Burke getting attention this week by saying of Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth down:

"You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash."

19. (20) BUFFALO BILLS

• Last week: Lost to Tennessee, 41-17 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 3-6
• My predicted record: 2-7
• My record at predicting their record: 6-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +10
• Points scored for me with losses: +47
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -18
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
• Plus/Minus: +32
  

Never forget.

20. (18) PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• Last week: Lost to Cincinnati, 18-12 (-6)
  
• Actual Record: 6-3
  
• My predicted record: 8-1
• My record at predicting their record: 5-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +44
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -1
• Points taken from me with losses: -18
  
• Plus/Minus: +25

Phil Simms is not wanted in Pittsburgh.

21. (24) BALTIMORE RAVENS

• Last week: Beat Cleveland, 16-0 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 5-4
  
• My predicted record: 8-1
• My record at predicting their record: 4-5
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +43
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -2
• Points taken from me with losses: -18
• Plus/Minus: +23

Now doing the placekicking: Billy Cundiff. Oh, and that sound you hear is Matt Stover and every Colts fan laughing at you, Baltimore.

22. (22) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• Last week: Lost to San Diego, 16-0 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 5-4
• My predicted record: 6-3
• My record at predicting their record: 6-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +37
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +9
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -19
  
• Plus/Minus: +22
  

Anybody else get the feeling that Philly will hang around just enough to get a wild card and then Brian Westbrook will still come back—despite them saying now that he might not—to help them run through the playoffs? Just me trying to make my pre-season picks work out? Possibly.

23. (21) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• Last week: Beat Chicago, 10-6 (-2)
  
• Actual Record: 4-5
• My predicted record: 2-7
• My record at predicting their record: 5-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +11
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +24
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -10
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
  
• Plus/Minus: +18
  

After an ugly win over the next team down here, I think it's perfectly justified to ask what kind of team you're supposed to be expecting. I haven't given the Niners much benefit of the doubt this year, but I'm not seeing much that makes me want to change my mind about it either. Seems to me that I got burned by doubting them early, but now they've cooled off considerably.

24. (23) CHICAGO BEARS

• Last week: Lost to San Francisco, 10-6 (-2)
  
• Actual Record: 4-5
• My predicted record: 8-1
• My record at predicting their record: 3-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +33
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -9
• Points taken from me with losses: -11
  
• Plus/Minus: +13
  

WOO HOO! THE PRESIDENT IS WEARING OUR JACKET IN THE COMMERCIAL, MOTHERFUCKERS!

25. (28) TENNESSEE TITANS

• Last week: Beat Buffalo, 41-17 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 3-6
• My predicted record: 4-5
• My record at predicting their record: 4-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +10
• Points scored for me with losses: +24
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -21
• Plus/Minus: +5

Stay classy, Bud Adams:

26. (25) GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Last week: Beat Dallas, 17-7 (-9)
  
• Actual Record: 5-4
• My predicted record: 6-3
• My record at predicting their record: 4-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +34
• Points scored for me with losses: +5
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -10
• Points taken from me with losses: -31
  
• Plus/Minus: -2
  

They've had a knack for doing the opposite of what I've expected, but one scribe thinks we may have saw a defining moment in the career of Aaron Rodgers during the (horribly, horribly officiated) Dallas game.

27. (26) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

• Last week: Beat New York Jets, 24-22 (-7)
  
• Actual Record: 5-4
• My predicted record: 4-5
• My record at predicting their record: 4-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +14
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +14
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -24
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
• Plus/Minus: -3
  

Maurice Jones-Drew is sorry.

28. (28) HOUSTON TEXANS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 5-4
• My predicted record: 5-4
• My record at predicting their record: 5-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +17
• Points scored for me with losses: +13
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -20
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -15
  
• Plus/Minus: -5
  

I guess I hadn't considered all the angles with Vince Young returning to Texas on Monday.

29. (27) DENVER BRONCOS

• Last week: Lost to Washington, 27-17 (-11)
  
• Actual Record: 6-3
• My predicted record: 7-2
• My record at predicting their record: 4-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +15
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -10
• Points taken from me with losses: -14
  
• Plus/Minus: -9
  

It has to be a good sign when the Giants are already whining about having to play you on Thanksgiving, right?

30. (30) NEW YORK JETS

• Last week: Lost to Jacksonville, 24-22 (-7)
  
• Actual Record: 4-5
• My predicted record: 4-5
• My record at predicting their record: 3-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +8
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +7
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -17
• Points taken from me with losses: -21
  
• Plus/Minus: -23
  

What's with all the fucking crying?

31. (31) ARIZONA CARDINALS

• Last week: Beat Seattle, 31-20 (+8)
  
• Actual Record: 6-3
• My predicted record: 4-5
• My record at predicting their record: 3-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +13
• Points scored for me with losses: +2
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -24
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -15
• Plus/Minus: -24
  

Let's see: Two-game lead in the division, 1-8 St. Louis this week, and only two more opponents with winning records right now—not to mention another game against the 1-8 Rams, one week after going to 1-8 Detroit. Yes, you can start talking about the playoffs. I still hope you choke.

32. (32) CINCINNATI BENGALS

• Last week: Beat Pittsburgh, 18-12 (-6)
  
• Actual Record: 7-2
• My predicted record: 3-6
• My record at predicting their record: 1-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +10
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -37
• Points taken from me with losses: -13
• Plus/Minus: -40
  

I did give the Bengals a shout-out of sorts over on the Tumblr (it really was a very good week over there), but I see them rising through the ranks once again with the schedule they've got coming up—and even Minnesota and San Diego don't strike me as that daunting for this team anymore.

Severe slide on two-point games continue after I believe I started 6-0 in that category. But I am getting close to locking in some winning records on the year:

16-point games: 3-0
15-point games: 4-0
14-point games: 5-2
13-point games: 8-2
12-point games: 10-0
11-point games: 7-3
10-point games: 8-2
9-point games: 8-2
8-point games: 7-3
7-point games: 3-7
6-point games: 5-5
5-point games: 5-5
4-point games: 6-4
3-point games: 3-7
2-point games: 6-4
1-point games: 3-7