Week 10 Picks

Big thanks to Steve-O for giving me a heads up to a mathematical error last weekend that originally had the Redskins supposedly favored in my numbers for my picks last week. Indeed, I erred in calculating the points Washington had earned me when picked to win and when adjusted, the Falcons indeed were the logical choice. It didn't affect all that much since the picks of Brian Burke, the Yahoo Users and my own numbers, which all finished with exactly the same score while Wunderdog was only one point behind. All of them would have finished fifth in the pool I'm in, and as for what I ultimately went with myself, well ... not very good.

That said, Steve-O also made the logical inquiry as to why I don't use the Vegas spread. I indeed used the spread from the Chicago Tribune earlier in the year as a sort of guide, but there's a variety of lines with very slight differences—but differences all the same. Still, I've opted to include the spread cited by Pro Football Weekly. So now I've got five sets of picks to compare myself to:

PFW Spread	Brian Burke	Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	My Numbers
15—Vikings (15 ½)	14.5—Vikings (.92)	15—Vikings (99%)	15—Saints (33-18)	15—Saints (138)
14—Saints (14)	14.5—Saints (.92)	14—Saints (98%)	14—Vikings (31-16)	14—Vikings (119)
13—Ravens (10 ½)	13—Ravens (.86)	13—Ravens (97%)	13—Ravens (25-14)	13—Ravens (78)
12—Dolphins (9 ½)	12—Broncos (.83)	12—Cardinals (95%)	12—Dolphins (26-18)	12—Cowboys (51)
11—Cardinals (9)	11—Dolphins (.79)	10.5—Dolphins (94%)	11—Cardinals (27-20)	11—Broncos (48)
9—Steelers (6 ½)	10—Steelers (.74)	10.5—Broncos (94%)	10—Steelers (24-18)	10—Bears (45)
9—Titans (6 ½)	9—Jets (.72)	9—Titans (88%)	9—Jets (23-18)	9—Dolphins (43)
9—Jets (6 ½)	8—Colts (.69)	8—Jets (84%)	8—Titans (22-17)	8—Colts (30)
7—Broncos (4 ½)	7—Titans (.68)	7—Falcons (82%)	7—49ers (23-21)	7—Falcons (30)
5.5—49ers (3)	6—Raiders (.65)	6—Steelers (80%)	6—Cowboys (25-23)	6—Bills (21)
5.5—Colts (3)	5—Cardinals (.63)	5—49ers (67%)	5—Broncos (19-17)	5—Cardinals (19)
4—Chargers (2 ½)	4—Chargers (.62)	4—Cowboys (65%)	4—Colts (24-23)	4—Raiders (16)
3—Raiders (2)	2.5—49ers (.54)	3—Colts (59%)	3—Chargers (24-23)	3—Chargers (9)
2—Falcons (1)	2.5—Cowboys (.54)	1.5—Raiders (51%)	2—Raiders (18-17)	2—Jaguars (6)
1—Cowboys (E)	1—Falcons (.51)	1.5—Chargers (51%)	1—Falcons (23-22)	1—Steelers (5)
89 points (9-6)	79.5 points (9-6)	83 points (9-6)	87 points (9-6)	69 points (8-7)

Like I said, I've had a real knack for predicting the exact opposite of what actually occurs ("I'm willing to gamble two measly points on Jay Cutler's arm essentially carrying Chicago to victory at Candlestick"), so I'm now going to guess as to how the picks I'll be submitting will come back to haunt me instead. I figure that at least that way I'll be able to say I was right about something:

15 points
New Orleans Saints (8-0) over St. Louis Rams (1-7)
+59/-2 : +136/138/-2 : 0/+77

Maybe the Rams will thrive on not being taken seriously.

14 points
Minnesota Vikings (7-1) over Detroit Lions (1-7)
+41/-4 : +109/119/-10 : -6/+68

I seem to recall Detroit giving the Vikings problems the past few times they played. Maybe this will be the time they actually hang on to an early lead.

13 points
Baltimore Ravens (4-4) over Cleveland Browns (1-7)
+12/-2 : +76/78/-2 : 0/+64

Didn't Cleveland beat the undefeated-at-the-time Giants the last time they hosted a nationally televised night game? Even if Browns fans follow through with the planned protest of not being seated for kickoff, perhaps they can create that type of environment again.

12 points
Miami Dolphins (3-5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)
+1/+22 : +65/43/+22 : 0/+64

The battle for Florida could prove to be just the sort of stage that's meaningless to the nation but meaningful to locals that allows Josh Freeman to steal the show for a second straight week.

11 points
Denver Broncos (6-2) over Washington Redskins (2-6)
+12/-10 : +50/48/+2 : +12/+38

Denver's fast start is now a two-game losing streak with their lead in the AFC West down to one game. They might not wait until the end of the season to choke away the division this year.

10 points
Tennessee Titans (2-6) over Buffalo Bills (3-5)
-21/+16 : -2/21/+19 : +3/+19

Chris Johnson could get hurt and not end up running for like 500 yards on the league's worst run defense.

9 points
Dallas Cowboys (6-2) over Green Bay Packers (4-4)
+49/-1 : +53/51/+2 : +3/+4

Aaron Rodgers might scramble enough to avoid the usual five or six sacks he's been averaging per game and thrive on the Lambeau faithful.

8 points
Arizona Cardinals (5-3) over Seattle Seahawks (3-5)
-10/-22 : +21/19/-2 : +20/+31

The Cards might continue their baffling inability to take advantage of playing in front of their own fans. Kurt Warner might forget one of his daily prayers and be out of whack.

7 points
New York Jets (4-4) over Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4)
-6/-10 : -9/6/-3 : +7/-3

It's the Jags. Nothing involving them surprises me anymore.

6 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) over Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)
+32/-1 : +1/5/-4 : -3/-31

Perhaps the Bengals could actually sweep all three of their AFC North rivals for the first time since ... well, has that ever happened?

5 points
Atlanta Falcons (5-3) over Carolina Panthers (3-5)
+26/+19 : +60/30/+30 : +11/+34

John Fox could get his team to take it to another level against a division rival at home. The Falcons might continue their slide out of the playoff picture.

4 points
San Diego Chargers (5-3) over Philadelphia Eagles (5-3)
+34/+7 : +34/9/+25 : +18/0

The Eagles could finally unveil a revamped wildcat formation that makes Michael Vick a star again and creates the biggest story of the week.

3 points
New England Patriots (6-2) over Indianapolis Colts (8-0)
+39/-3 : +39/30/+69 : +72/0

Peyton Manning might finally have the Pats' number and be driven enough to one-up the New England franchise by not only getting a perfect season, but actually winning the big game at the end.

2 points
Chicago Bears (4-5) over San Francisco 49ers (4-5)
+24/-9 : +40/45/-5 : +4/+16


1 point
Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) over Oakland Raiders (2-6)
-2/+54 : +42/16/+58 : +4/+44

The Chiefs newly developed long-term strategy could include trying to secure the first overall draft pick for next year and being privately heartbroken about losing Larry Johnson might help them lose every remaining game on their schedule.