Well, I went out on a limb on more than a few picks last week and my reward was a score of 108 points that was lower than all five of the other "sheets" I post here. Brian Burke went an incredible 15-1 last week—and only his editor called attention to it this week, even adding that his one misfire was probably somewhat affected by Big Ben's failure to play.
You might notice that I'm skipping my usual strictly Thursday pick and going right into the whole week's slate at once. That's because I decided that despite however poor my numbers (again, calculated like this) have been performing this year, I still wanted to fill out a sheet just as they were ordered. As I might have mentioned a few times this year, when I did that last season, I ended up winning. So that column above on the far right there will also be representing my own picks this week as well. I've been toying with doing this for a number of weeks, but this is the first one that actually felt right.
Here's me expressing varying levels of discomfort with how the math turned out and occasionally justifying the experiment:
16 points San Diego Chargers (8-3) over Cleveland Browns (1-10) +58/+7 : +157/150/+7 : 0/+99
OK, good start. No complaints about this point allocation whatsoever.
15 points New Orleans Saints (11-0) over Washington Redskins (3-8) +88/-7 : +138/133/+5 : +12/+50
Now this is a bit higher than I probably would've gone with on my own, but even while I wouldn't totally dismiss a Washington upset this week, I certainly wouldn't pick it either.
14 points Cincinnati Bengals (8-3) over Detroit Lions (2-9) -2/-37 : +91/128/-37 : 0/+93
On my own, I probably would've put 16 on the Bengals—mostly to help them get out of their Power Ranking hole. But that's not the type of logic I want influencing my picks. The fact that Marvin Lewis owns the NFC North, however, is.
13 points Chicago Bears (4-7) over St. Louis Rams (1-10) +22/+6 : +129/123/+6 : 0/+107
Honestly, I would've gone lower. Something about the Bears makes them the ideal type of team that gets unexpectedly beaten by the Rams. Still, Cutler needs a big game at home without the night game demons and this could be the best opportunity in weeks to win back some of his doubters.
12 points Indianapolis Colts (11-0) over Tennessee Titans (5-6) +76/-4 : +92/102/-10 : -6/+16
Oh, you know I was tempted to think about picking the Titans, but I've already tried going against the Colts twice and have been burned both times, thank you. If Tennessee pulls off the stunner, I'll actually be happy to have the Indianapolis loss finally out of the way—although I fear that I'm going to be among the higher bettors on Indy this weekend, so it would come at more of a cost than I'd like.
11 points Carolina Panthers(4-7) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-10) +8/+34 : +112/78/+34 : 0/+104
This would be the fourth game now where my immediate reaction was "lower," so there better be some "higher"-causing picks coming up if this was to even out. I'd be more wary if the game was in Tampa, but since the Panthers are at home, it's once again a pick I can't argue too much with.
10 points Denver Broncos (7-4) over Kansas City Chiefs (3-8) +1/-14 : +54/69/-15 : -1/+53
Immature juvenile I am, I can't get over that number and it made me think of the otherwise totally unrelated first clip from this:
Yes, now finally here's a game I wanted higher. My best explanation for being spotted so low on the list has to be the combination of some unexpected losses from the Steelers and a unexpected wins from the Raiders so far this year hurt the point total.
6 points Dallas Cowboys (8-3) over New York Giants (6-5) +61/-1 : +61/29/+32 : +33/0
And we're back to games I would've ranked lower, but the story here is really that this marks the first time this year I've picked against the Giants.
5 points Philadelphia Eagles (7-4) over Atlanta Falcons (6-5) +32/+4 : +58/19/+39 : +35/+26
Lower? I would've gone lower.
4 points
New York Jets (5-6) over Buffalo Bills (4-7) -7/+2 : +24/19/+5 : +3/+31
Originally leaned toward the Bills after the big upset this week, especially with them playing at home—until I found out "home" was Toronto, and then I felt more comfortable with this pick. Maybe would've preferred a little lower.
Oh my, no winning here. I couldn't be happy either way—especially not this high up, of course.
2 points Seattle Seahawks (4-7) over San Francisco 49ers (5-6) +27/+52 : +47/9/+56 : +4/+20
Isn't this where I had them the last time these two played? Oh noes! Guess what? It was one point lower.
1 point Green Bay Packers (7-4) over Baltimore Ravens (6-5) +23/-5 : +23/3/+20 : +25/0
I was going to say this week ends with a game I wanted higher, but that's clearly irrelevant right now. And besides, I wanted to end with the same thought I had the last time I let my picks be dictated by the numbers:
Perfect. I usually like having little depending on Monday night's outcome.
I went 10-6 on my picks last weekend, which is a score that certainly felt like it was going to be a whole lot better when I came back from the annual brunch before the tree cutting to find Houston up on the Colts and most of my picks looking in good shape. I stepped outside for a cigarette and came back in to find Indy had scored something along the lines of three touchdowns while I was away and suddenly my one-point gamble was in the shitter while most everybody else had big points on the favorites. The remainder of the day was watching my chances slowly die rather than having a door shut on me immediately—as has been the case most every other recent week. After the Jaguars once again laid a turd in a West Coast visit, the Steelers couldn't capitalize on winning the overtime coin toss and then the Patriots got trounced just for good measure.
Oh, and the fantasy team, as you can plainly see, is nothing short of an unmitigated disaster these days. I'm not in last yet, but there's still time. The highest-earning scorer on my team this week was my fucking kicker. I toyed with the idea of posting a screen grab of the "optimal" results as well, but it really wouldn't have proved anything since my bench is also bad and I would've still lost anyway. And just to prove how oblivious I am to what has been available to teams as the season winds down, I noticed that Vince Young was claimed off of waivers, which probably would have helped me a lot had I not apparently had my head up my ass. Oh, but I did nab Khalil Bell! As you can see, he was a perfect compliment to Marshawn Lynch as both my backs earned solid goose eggs. I haven't had such an accomplishment I wanted noticed less since the time I hit three triple-ones in darts.
Anyway, in the pool I do care about, my 10-6 record was good for 108 points. That was good for sixth place (out of 12) and brought me to 1021 points on the year and still keeps me in second place overall. At 114-62 (.648) on the year, I'm two games better than I was last year at this point in the season and I'm also 47 points ahead of that pace. So that's encouraging, I suppose.
As for the usual group of pickers I follow, Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, Chris Mortensen of ESPN, and both Michael Silver and Charles Robinson of Yahoo all went 12-4 last week to lead the way. The bro-in-law, Jason Cole, Eric Allen, and Merrill Hoge were all right behind at 11-5. Adam Schefter and Mark Schlereth also went 10-6 like me, while Ron Jaworski technically did better at 10-5. Seth Wickersham went 9-7 but Mike Golic ends up the big loser of the week at 8-8.
Now, on the year (numbers in parentheses still indicating where the dude stood in the rankings last week):
There's still five teams who've cost me more than they've earned me, while also keeping last year at this time in mind, I only had three negative teams (Buffalo was even at that point). So still work to be done:
1. (1) ST. LOUIS RAMS
Last week: Lost to Seattle, 27-17 (+7)
Actual Record: 1-10
My predicted record: 0-11
My record at predicting their record: 10-1
Points scored for me with wins: 0
Points scored for me with losses: +113
Points taken from me with wins: -6
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +107
Last week was probably their best shot to get a pick to win from me and instead I actually went the right way and stayed with the Seahawks (all three Yahoo experts had the Rams, so crack must've been shared at the office). Now it's this week that represents their new best chance to get another win as they come into Chicago, although they won't be seeing those couple of former players of theirs.
The good news just keeps on coming in Cleveland, where blackouts seem imminent and their receivers resemble a black hole. With Kansas City and Oakland back-to-back, you figure they've got a better chance at winning one more than either of the two teams above them.
Brad Childress doesn't need to explain why he'd be looking at tape of the Saints without them being on the Vikes' regular season schedule, but I'm guessing Minnesota still falls to them in the playoffs.
8. (6) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Last week: Beat Houston, 35-27 (-1)
Actual Record: 11-0
My predicted record: 9-2
My record at predicting their record: 9-2
Points scored for me with wins:+76
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: -4
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +72
The Colts are looking to tie New England's league record for consecutive wins this weekend when they play Tennessee—which is coincidentally the last team they lost to.
9. (9) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Last week:Beat Kansas City, 43-14 (+15)
Actual Record: 8-3
My predicted record: 6-5
My record at predicting their record: 9-2
Points scored for me with wins: +58
Points scored for me with losses: +13
Points taken from me with wins: -6
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +65
San Diego is one of several teams under pressure to build a new stadium in response to the one now under construction just up the way in La-La Land.
You folks in ATL might recognize that guy over there on the other sideline this weekend.
12. (9) DALLAS COWBOYS
Last week: Beat Oakland, 24-7 (+10)
Actual Record: 8-3
My predicted record: 8-3
My record at predicting their record: 9-2
Points scored for me with wins: +70
Points scored for me with losses: +4
Points taken from me with wins: -5
Points taken from me with losses: -9
Plus/Minus: +60
Wade Phillips is pulling his best Rodney Dangerfield as the Cowboys get ready to close the season with games against the Giants, Chargers, Saints, and Eagles—three of the final five overall being on the road. It should be interesting.
13. (16) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Last week:Lost to San Diego, 43-14 (+15)
Actual Record: 3-8
My predicted record: 2-9
My record at predicting their record: 8-3
Points scored for me with wins: +1
Points scored for me with losses: +74
Points taken from me with wins: -21
Points taken from me with losses: -2
Plus/Minus: +52
He might not have played the game himself but goddammit, Todd Haley wears shorts all year—EVEN IN THE WINTER.
I've got bigger points than I would've gone on my own with this weekend when Carolina hosts the Bucs, but I'll try to take some comfort in Matt Moore having a win against Tampa in his background—although it's really strange to remember that when these two teams met late in the season last year, they were playing for a division title. How far we've fallen.
16. (13) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Last week:Lost to New Orleans, 38-17 (-5)
Actual Record: 7-4
My predicted record: 10-1
My record at predicting their record: 6-5
Points scored for me with wins: +66
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: -3
Points taken from me with losses: -23
Plus/Minus: +40
The shellacking they took from the Saints had to signify the team's not living up to what most of us had hyped them up to be before the season started. If they can turn around their road woes and finish the season strong, I still think they're a formidable opponent in the playoffs. But they better start giving everybody a reason to believe they can go into somebody else's place to move on if anybody's expected to believe they can truly go very far.
I had no idea Brian Ulacher and Michael Silver were such good friends.
21. (20) BALTIMORE RAVENS
Last week: Beat Pittsburgh, 20-17 (-2)
Actual Record: 6-5
My predicted record: 8-3
My record at predicting their record: 5-6
Points scored for me with wins: +43
Points scored for me with losses: +4
Points taken from me with wins: -4
Points taken from me with losses: -18
Plus/Minus: +25
Remember when the Ravens started 3-0 and how we were talking then about them? I think they could still get in the playoffs with the schedule they've got left, but anything less than four of the remaining five probably won't cut it.
22. (19) MIAMI DOLPHINS
Last week: Lost to Buffalo, 31-14 (-8)
Actual Record: 5-6
My predicted record: 5-6
My record at predicting their record: 7-4
Points scored for me with wins: +14
Points scored for me with losses: +25
Points taken from me with wins: -6
Points taken from me with losses: -9
Plus/Minus: +24
While three of their last five are at home and against teams with marginally better records, there's still an awful lot of issues with the Miami defense that prevent them from being a realistic playoff team in my mind. Last week's loss to Buffalo was pivotal.
22. (20) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Last week: Beat Jacksonville, 20-3 (-3)
Actual Record: 5-6
My predicted record: 2-9
My record at predicting their record: 6-5
Points scored for me with wins: +11
Points scored for me with losses: +33
Points taken from me with wins: -13
Points taken from me with losses: -7
Plus/Minus: +24
Play these last five games like your career depends on them, Mr. Smith, because in all actuality, it probably does.
Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record could be in some serious trouble, but I'll go ahead and say it manages to survive. I suppose if the Titans fall out of the playoff picture, Fisher could be the type of coach that would have a game plan designed to help Johnson break the record even if it didn't necessarily help give the team the best chance to win the game.
26. (24) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Last week:Lost to Baltimore, 20-17 (-2)
Actual Record: 6-5
My predicted record: 10-1
My record at predicting their record: 5-6
Points scored for me with wins: +44
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: -1
Points taken from me with losses: -36
Plus/Minus: +7
Hines Ward sorta thinks Rodney Harrison's kind of a punkass bitch. (Don't quote me on that.)
27. (25) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Last week: Lost to San Francisco, 20-3 (-3)
Actual Record: 6-5
My predicted record: 6-5
My record at predicting their record: 5-6
Points scored for me with wins: +24
Points scored for me with losses: +14
Points taken from me with wins: -24
Points taken from me with losses: -10
Plus/Minus: +4
Hosting the Texans in December didn't work out so well for the Jags last time.
I don't know if it competes with helping that woman out along the side of the road after the World Series, but sure was nice of Joe Girardi to take an interest in teaching Mark Sanchez how to slide.
30. (31) ARIZONA CARDINALS
Last week: Lost to Tennessee, 20-17 (+4)
Actual Record: 7-4
My predicted record: 5-6
My record at predicting their record: 5-6
Points scored for me with wins: +21
Points scored for me with losses: +6
Points taken from me with wins: -24
Points taken from me with losses: -15
Plus/Minus: -12
I don't know that Arizona needs to panic about not winning their division just yet, but I do know that if Kurt Warner doesn't start feeling better soon, Matt Leinart will not be taking the Redbirds on anything resembling the playoff run they had last year.
Oh Cincinnati, there's hope for you yet: You play Detroit this week. And just think, if too many players aren't hiding concussions and more is being done to ensure they're not being rushed back on to the field, then maybe soon there will be two more games every year that would allow teams like yourself to be able to get out of that miserable hole—or maybe not.
The three-point spot has officially been locked in as a loser this year, but everything above nine's looking good too:
Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me, E-mail Me
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"I don't know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody."
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