Monday, December 01, 2008

Week 13 Power Rankings

Looking back, it didn't even really dawn on me until I started adding the numbers just before the night game on Sunday that I actually was doing pretty well.

OK, I did really well.

While I'm still awaiting e-confirmation, I'm fairly confident in my math skills, and as a result of last week's thrilling experiment, I am somewhat shocked—but still very, very happy to report that my 108 points was good enough for 1st place (out of 24). Most of the early games were pretty close, but Buffalo's loss to San Francisco had cost me 12 points and I was under the impression that the loss there would be enough to kill my chances.

But while I was watching the Jets get handled by those unpredictable Broncos, it dawned on me while perusing the stat sheet that the nine points I had on that particular game was relatively low in comparison to what others had wagered on New York. Factor in that I had only missed two other games and by the time the Bears and Vikings kicked off, I was informing B. Doggy that we were both still very much in the running for the weekend. And seeing as I only had two on the Sunday night game and a single point on the night after, I was feeling particularly confident in my at-the-moment first place standing.

Of course, as Sunday evening concluded and B. Doggy and I went our separate ways, he clung to the possibility that a Jacksonville victory on Monday night would put him past me into the top spot. Alas, how foolish he must feel for placing 10 points on the Jaguars.

My first-place finish last week also moved me into second for the year at 1082 points, although there's still 45 points to be made up if I'm to end the season in first there. I went 12-4 last week, by the way, which brings me to 124-68 (.646) on the season. It's pretty good overall, but still not ahead of the best at Yahoo! or ESPN.

Anyway, it appears there's four negative-earning teams in my Power Rankings and there's no chance of that number increasing next week. Then again, only one of those teams is real likely to be on the positive side by that point in time as well. The rest of the list only offers a couple of shake-ups:


1. (1) NEW YORK GIANTS
  • Last week: Beat Washington, 23-7 (+14)
  • Actual Record: 11-1
  • My predicted record: 11-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: 139
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 3
  • Points taken from me with losses: 12
  • Plus/Minus: +124
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
2. (2) DETROIT LIONS
  • Last week: Lost to Tennessee, 47-10 (+16)
  • Actual Record: 0-12
  • My predicted record: 3-9
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 132
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 11
  • Plus/Minus: +121
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Well, if they don't win a game all year, they can always take comfort in finishing first in the Power Rankings; the only way they won't is if they actually win a game.

And yes, it would be appropriate if that happened against the Vikings.
3. (3) ST. LOUIS RAMS
  • Last week: Lost to Miami, 16-12 (+13)
  • Actual Record: 2-10
  • My predicted record: 0-12
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 117
  • Points taken from me with wins: 22
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +95
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They'll get to play each of their division rivals over the next three weeks, so that has to help their odds of getting a third win for the season.

This is the NFC West we're talking about.

4. (4) HOUSTON TEXANS
  • Last week: Beat Jacksonville, 30-17 (+1)
  • Actual Record: 5-7
  • My predicted record: 6-6
  • Points scored for me with wins: 33
  • Points scored for me with losses: 48
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 2
  • Plus/Minus: +79
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
No point they earned for me was bigger than the one they got tonight against those rotten Jags.

Thank you, Houston! I'll forgive your being from Texas!
5. (6) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
  • Last week: Beat New Orleans, 23-20 (+5)
  • Actual Record: 9-3
  • My predicted record: 8-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 61
  • Points scored for me with losses: 21
  • Points taken from me with wins: 9
  • Points taken from me with losses: 8
  • Plus/Minus: +65
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
While they've got two big division games on the road (in Carolina, then at Atlanta) over the next two weeks, they get to finish up at home with the Chargers and Raiders.
6. (5) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  • Last week: Beat Buffalo, 10-3 (-12)
  • Actual Record: 4-8
  • My predicted record: 3-9
  • Points scored for me with wins: 20
  • Points scored for me with losses: 68
  • Points taken from me with wins: 15
  • Points taken from me with losses: 10
  • Plus/Minus: +63
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Buffalo's more on the "shit list" than the Niners after Sunday's debacle.
7. (11) BALTIMORE RAVENS
  • Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 34-3 (+15)
  • Actual Record: 8-4
  • My predicted record: 6-6
  • Points scored for me with wins: 52
  • Points scored for me with losses: 25
  • Points taken from me with wins: 16
  • Points taken from me with losses: 4
  • Plus/Minus: +57
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
The Redskins will be a solid test for the Ravens to keep pace with the Steelers before Pittsburgh comes to town on the 14th.
7. (11) CINCINNATI BENGALS
  • Last week: Lost to Baltimore, 34-3 (+15)
  • Actual Record: 1-10-1
  • My predicted record: 3-9
  • Points scored for me with wins: 1
  • Points scored for me with losses: 91
  • Points taken from me with wins/ties: 15
  • Points taken from me with losses: 20
  • Plus/Minus: +57
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Cedric Benson averaging 2.9 yards per carry.
9. (8) ARIZONA CARDINALS
  • Last week: Lost to Philadelphia, 48-20 (-3)
  • Actual Record: 7-5
  • My predicted record: 5-7
  • Points scored for me with wins: 37
  • Points scored for me with losses: 39
  • Points taken from me with wins: 18
  • Points taken from me with losses: 3
  • Plus/Minus: +55
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Losing to Philly just solidifies my opinion that Arizona's a first-round exit for the playoffs.
10. (10) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
  • Last week: Lost to Dallas, 34-9 (+10)
  • Actual Record: 2-10
  • My predicted record: 4-8
  • Points scored for me with wins: 10
  • Points scored for me with losses: 67
  • Points taken from me with wins: 10
  • Points taken from me with losses: 13
  • Plus/Minus: +54
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Lost 10th game of season last week, earning me 10 points once again.

Do I bet 11 on their 11th?
11. (15) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
  • Last week: Beat Cleveland, 10-6 (+11)
  • Actual Record: 8-4
  • My predicted record: 10-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: 63
  • Points scored for me with losses: 3
  • Points taken from me with wins: 6
  • Points taken from me with losses: 12
  • Plus/Minus: +48
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Barring a total Tennessee meltdown, they can't win the division. But they couldn't ask for a softer schedule before the Titans come into town: the Bengals are followed by the Lions, and the one road game left is only in Jacksonville.
11. (9) MINNESOTA VIKINGS
  • Last week: Beat Chicago, 34-14 (+2)
  • Actual Record: 7-5
  • My predicted record: 5-7
  • Points scored for me with wins: 31
  • Points scored for me with losses: 33
  • Points taken from me with wins: 16
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +48
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
The Vikings' storied collapses are really tempting me to believe that Detroit could stun Minnesota.
11. (13) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
  • Last week: Beat New England, 33-10 (+7)
  • Actual Record: 9-3
  • My predicted record: 10-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: 66
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 8
  • Points taken from me with losses: 10
  • Plus/Minus: +48
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
A huge game with Dallas coming into town, for sure, but the next two on the road could be even rougher (at Baltimore and then Tennessee).
14. (8) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
  • Last week: Beat Arizona, 48-20 (-3)
  • Actual Record: 6-5-1
  • My predicted record: 5-7
  • Points scored for me with wins: 38
  • Points scored for me with losses: 28
  • Points taken from me with wins: 4
  • Points taken from me with losses/ties: 15
  • Plus/Minus: +47
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
With three of their four remaining games coming against NFC East foes, it's still hard to see the Eagles finding a way into the playoffs.
15. (15) CAROLINA PANTHERS
  • Last week: Beat Green Bay, 35-31 (+8)
  • Actual Record: 9-3
  • My predicted record: 8-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 69
  • Points scored for me with losses: 4
  • Points taken from me with wins: 11
  • Points taken from me with losses: 17
  • Plus/Minus: +45
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They need to beat Tampa if they want to win the division. After the Bucs leave town, the Broncos come in and then the last two are in the road——at the Giants and then the Saints.
16. (18) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  • Last week: Lost to Tampa Bay, 23-20 (+5)
  • Actual Record: 6-6
  • My predicted record: 6-6
  • Points scored for me with wins: 35
  • Points scored for me with losses: 22
  • Points taken from me with wins: 3
  • Points taken from me with losses: 17
  • Plus/Minus: +37
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
You have to figure the mathematical elimination from the post-season is coming soon in the Bayou.
17. (14) OAKLAND RAIDERS
  • Last week: Lost to Kansas City, 20-13 (-4)
  • Actual Record: 3-9
  • My predicted record: 1-11
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 77
  • Points taken from me with wins: 38
  • Points taken from me with losses: 4
  • Plus/Minus: +35
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Growing increasingly irritating.

18. (21) TENNESSEE TITANS
  • Last week: Beat Detroit, 47-10 (+16)
  • Actual Record: 11-1
  • My predicted record: 7-5
  • Points scored for me with wins: 58
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 19
  • Points taken from me with losses: 5
  • Plus/Minus: +34
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They've got a couple of creampuff games the next couple weeks before we get to see if they can go into the playoffs on a solid winning note.
19. (17) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
  • Last week: Beat Oakland, 20-13 (-4)
  • Actual Record: 2-10
  • My predicted record: 3-9
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 64
  • Points taken from me with wins: 17
  • Points taken from me with losses: 15
  • Plus/Minus: +32
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Figures, right?

Pick them to win for two straight weeks, and then they finally win one when you go back to betting against them.

19. (26) WASHINGTON REDSKINS
  • Last week: Lost to New York Giants, 23-7 (+14)
  • Actual Record: 7-5
  • My predicted record: 7-5
  • Points scored for me with wins: 37
  • Points scored for me with losses: 34
  • Points taken from me with wins: 20
  • Points taken from me with losses: 19
  • Plus/Minus: +32
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
It'll be tough to get into the playoffs, but their schedule is certainly more favorable than the Cowboys'.
21. (20) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
  • Last week: Lost to Atlanta, 22-16 (+6)
  • Actual Record: 4-8
  • My predicted record: 5-7
  • Points scored for me with wins: 19
  • Points scored for me with losses: 26
  • Points taken from me with wins: 2
  • Points taken from me with losses: 14
  • Plus/Minus: +29
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Officially the biggest disappointment in the entire league.

Weren't some people thinking these dudes would be in the Super Bowl?
22. (23) CLEVELAND BROWNS
  • Last week: Lost to Indianapolis, 10-6 (+11)
  • Actual Record: 4-8
  • My predicted record: 3-9
  • Points scored for me with wins: 3
  • Points scored for me with losses: 52
  • Points taken from me with wins: 21
  • Points taken from me with losses: 8
  • Plus/Minus: +26
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They made it interesting for a while there with Indy, but the story with the Browns always seems to end the same.
23. (23) DALLAS COWBOYS
  • Last week: Beat Seattle, 34-9 (+10)
  • Actual Record: 8-4
  • My predicted record: 9-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: 56
  • Points scored for me with losses: 13
  • Points taken from me with wins: 14
  • Points taken from me with losses: 30
  • Plus/Minus: +25
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
Every team they've got left on their schedule has a winning record, so have fun with that, LV.

24. (28) MIAMI DOLPHINS
  • Last week: Beat St. Louis, 16-12 (+13)
  • Actual Record: 7-5
  • My predicted record: 5-7
  • Points scored for me with wins: 34
  • Points scored for me with losses: 27
  • Points taken from me with wins: 32
  • Points taken from me with losses: 8
  • Plus/Minus: +21
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
It's surprising to see them only a game out in the AFC East.

I mean, there's reasonable playoff talk in Miami.
25. (19) NEW YORK JETS
  • Last week: Lost to Denver, 34-17 (-9)
  • Actual Record: 8-4
  • My predicted record: 7-5
  • Points scored for me with wins: 53
  • Points scored for me with losses: 5
  • Points taken from me with wins: 17
  • Points taken from me with losses: 21
  • Plus/Minus: +20
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
My, how far they've fallen.

We used to be on such good terms too.
26. (26) GREEN BAY PACKERS
  • Last week: Lost to Carolina, 35-31 (+8)
  • Actual Record: 5-7
  • My predicted record: 6-6
  • Points scored for me with wins: 15
  • Points scored for me with losses: 28
  • Points taken from me with wins: 13
  • Points taken from me with losses: 11
  • Plus/Minus: +19
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
They've gotta' like that they end the season with the Lions at Lambeau.

The only thing better would be a bye.
27. (23) CHICAGO BEARS
  • Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 34-14 (+2)
  • Actual Record: 6-6
  • My predicted record: 9-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: 36
  • Points scored for me with losses: 12
  • Points taken from me with wins: 1
  • Points taken from me with losses: 30
  • Plus/Minus: +17
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
If you have any decent receivers, please send them this way.
28. (27) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  • Last week: Lost to Pittsburgh, 33-10 (+7)
  • Actual Record: 7-5
  • My predicted record: 8-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 34
  • Points scored for me with losses: 11
  • Points taken from me with wins: 7
  • Points taken from me with losses: 22
  • Plus/Minus: +16
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
The schedule they've got gives plenty of reason to believe they can still get into the playoffs, but they've got little margin for error.
29. (30) ATLANTA FALCONS
  • Last week: Beat San Diego, 22-16 (+6)
  • Actual Record: 8-4
  • My predicted record: 5-7
  • Points scored for me with wins: 24
  • Points scored for me with losses: 19
  • Points taken from me with wins: 34
  • Points taken from me with losses: 10
  • Plus/Minus: -1
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
The record's pretty stunning, and if they can come out of the next two weeks with wins against the division rivals, they'll be in really good shape.
30. (32) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
  • Last week: Lost to Houston, 30-17 (+1)
  • Actual Record: 4-8
  • My predicted record: 5-7
  • Points scored for me with wins: 3
  • Points scored for me with losses: 22
  • Points taken from me with wins: 13
  • Points taken from me with losses: 21
  • Plus/Minus: -9
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
If San Diego's the biggest bust of the year, the Jaguars sure are trying to take away that title.
31. (29) BUFFALO BILLS
  • Last week: Lost to San Francisco, 10-3 (-12)
  • Actual Record: 6-6
  • My predicted record: 7-5
  • Points scored for me with wins: 28
  • Points scored for me with losses: 5
  • Points taken from me with wins: 16
  • Points taken from me with losses: 29
  • Plus/Minus: -12
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
I've been wondering about that whole playing in the SkyDome thing (or whatever they call it in Toronto these days ...), and apparently it will be when the Bills host the Dolphins——the one team you'd probably want that outdoor home-field edge for in Buffalo.
32. (32) DENVER BRONCOS
  • Last week: Beat New York Jets, 34-17 (-9)
  • Actual Record: 7-5
  • My predicted record: 10-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: 26
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 19
  • Points taken from me with losses: 38
  • Plus/Minus: -31
  • "TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL":
WTF.

16-point games: 5-0
15-point games: 4-2
14-point games: 11-1
13-point games: 10-3
12-point games: 10-3
11-point games: 11-2
10-point games: 10-3
9-point games: 7-6
8-point games: 7-6
7-point games: 8-5
6-point games: 8-5
5-point games: 4-9
4-point games: 8-5
3-point games: 7-6
2-point games: 7-6
1-point games: 7-6

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