Week 13 Picks

Well, I went out on a limb on more than a few picks last week and my reward was a score of 108 points that was lower than all five of the other "sheets" I post here. Brian Burke went an incredible 15-1 last week—and only his editor called attention to it this week, even adding that his one misfire was probably somewhat affected by Big Ben's failure to play.

Anyway, here's the picks this week:

PFW Spread		Brian Burke	Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	My Numbers
16—Bengals (13)		16—Steelers (.94)	15.5—Steelers (98%)	16—Steelers (28-11)	16—Chargers (150)
15—Chargers (11)		15—Chargers (.93)	15.5—Bengals (98%)	15—Chargers (28-15)	15—Saints (133)
14—Steelers (10)		14—Bengals (.91)	14—Chargers (97%)	14—Bengals (26-14)	14—Bengals (128)
13—Bears (9)		12.5—Colts (.84)	13—Saints (96%)	13—Colts (30-19)	13—Bears (123)
12—Saints (8 ½)		12.5—Broncos (.84)	12—Bears (94%)	12—Bears (24-16)	12—Colts (102)
11—Panthers (7)		11—Saints (.80)	10.5—Broncos (90%)	11—Saints (27-20)	11—Panthers (78)
10—Patriots (6 ½)		10—Patriots (.74)	10.5—Patriots (90%)	10—Broncos (23-15)	10—Broncos (69)
9—Colts (6)		9—Eagles (.73)	9—Vikings (88%)	9—Jets (22-15)	9—Vikings (61)
8—Broncos (4 ½)		8—Bears (.70)	8—Colts (82%)	8—Panthers (24-17)	8—Patriots (60)
6.5—Jets (3)		7—Panthers (.69)	7—Panthers (79%)	7—Patriots (22-16)	7—Steelers (45)
6.5—Vikings (3)		6—Vikings (.64)	6—Eagles (77%)	6—Eagles (26-24)	6—Cowboys (29)
5—Packers (2 ½)		5—Packers (.62)	5—Texans (72%)	5—Texans (24-22)	5—Eagles (19)
4—Eagles (2)		4—Jets (.58)	4—49ers (69%)	4—Cowboys (24-22)	4—Jets (19)
3—Seahawks (1 ½)		3—Giants (.56)	2.5—Jets (63%)	3—Vikings (25-24)	3—Jaguars (17)
1.5—Cowboys (1)		2—Seahawks (.54)	2.5—Packers (63%)	2—49ers (21-20)	2—Seahawks (9)
1.5—Texans (1)		1—Jaguars (.51)	1—Cowboys (56%)	1—Packers (22-22)	1—Packers (3)
102.5 points (10-5)		104 points (13-3)	91 points (10-6)	99 points (10-6)	106 points (12-4)

You might notice that I'm skipping my usual strictly Thursday pick and going right into the whole week's slate at once. That's because I decided that despite however poor my numbers (again, calculated like this) have been performing this year, I still wanted to fill out a sheet just as they were ordered. As I might have mentioned a few times this year, when I did that last season, I ended up winning. So that column above on the far right there will also be representing my own picks this week as well. I've been toying with doing this for a number of weeks, but this is the first one that actually felt right.

Here's me expressing varying levels of discomfort with how the math turned out and occasionally justifying the experiment:

16 points
San Diego Chargers (8-3) over Cleveland Browns (1-10)
+58/+7 : +157/150/+7 : 0/+99

OK, good start. No complaints about this point allocation whatsoever.

15 points
New Orleans Saints (11-0) over Washington Redskins (3-8)
+88/-7 : +138/133/+5 : +12/+50

Now this is a bit higher than I probably would've gone with on my own, but even while I wouldn't totally dismiss a Washington upset this week, I certainly wouldn't pick it either.

14 points
Cincinnati Bengals (8-3) over Detroit Lions (2-9)
-2/-37 : +91/128/-37 : 0/+93

On my own, I probably would've put 16 on the Bengals—mostly to help them get out of their Power Ranking hole. But that's not the type of logic I want influencing my picks. The fact that Marvin Lewis owns the NFC North, however, is.

13 points
Chicago Bears (4-7) over St. Louis Rams (1-10)
+22/+6 : +129/123/+6 : 0/+107

Honestly, I would've gone lower. Something about the Bears makes them the ideal type of team that gets unexpectedly beaten by the Rams. Still, Cutler needs a big game at home without the night game demons and this could be the best opportunity in weeks to win back some of his doubters.

12 points
Indianapolis Colts (11-0) over Tennessee Titans (5-6)
+76/-4 : +92/102/-10 : -6/+16

Oh, you know I was tempted to think about picking the Titans, but I've already tried going against the Colts twice and have been burned both times, thank you. If Tennessee pulls off the stunner, I'll actually be happy to have the Indianapolis loss finally out of the way—although I fear that I'm going to be among the higher bettors on Indy this weekend, so it would come at more of a cost than I'd like.

11 points
Carolina Panthers (4-7) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-10)
+8/+34 : +112/78/+34 : 0/+104

This would be the fourth game now where my immediate reaction was "lower," so there better be some "higher"-causing picks coming up if this was to even out. I'd be more wary if the game was in Tampa, but since the Panthers are at home, it's once again a pick I can't argue too much with.

10 points
Denver Broncos (7-4) over Kansas City Chiefs (3-8)
+1/-14 : +54/69/-15 : -1/+53

Immature juvenile I am, I can't get over that number and it made me think of the otherwise totally unrelated first clip from this:

9 points

Minnesota Vikings (10-1) over Arizona Cardinals (7-4)
+81/-4 : +63/61/+2 : +6/-18

Again, would've gone lower, but actually I'm kind of thinking the Cardinals get the shit kicked out of them.

8 points
New England Patriots (7-4) over Miami Dolphins (5-6)
+43/-3 : +62/60/+2 : +5/+19

Part of me wants the Dolphins to keep putting up a fight, but this actually right around where I was guessing I'd have this result pegged anyway.

7 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) over Oakland Raiders (3-8)
+8/-1 : +48/45/+3 : +4/+40

Yes, now finally here's a game I wanted higher. My best explanation for being spotted so low on the list has to be the combination of some unexpected losses from the Steelers and a unexpected wins from the Raiders so far this year hurt the point total.

6 points
Dallas Cowboys (8-3) over New York Giants (6-5)
+61/-1 : +61/29/+32 : +33/0

And we're back to games I would've ranked lower, but the story here is really that this marks the first time this year I've picked against the Giants.

5 points
Philadelphia Eagles (7-4) over Atlanta Falcons (6-5)
+32/+4 : +58/19/+39 : +35/+26

Lower? I would've gone lower.

4 points

New York Jets (5-6) over Buffalo Bills (4-7)
-7/+2 : +24/19/+5 : +3/+31

Originally leaned toward the Bills after the big upset this week, especially with them playing at home—until I found out "home" was Toronto, and then I felt more comfortable with this pick. Maybe would've preferred a little lower.

3 points
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5) over Houston Texans (5-6)
+14/-10 : +8/17/-9 : +1/-6

Oh my, no winning here. I couldn't be happy either way—especially not this high up, of course.

2 points
Seattle Seahawks (4-7) over San Francisco 49ers (5-6)
+27/+52 : +47/9/+56 : +4/+20

Isn't this where I had them the last time these two played? Oh noes! Guess what? It was one point lower.

1 point
Green Bay Packers (7-4) over Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
+23/-5 : +23/3/+20 : +25/0

I was going to say this week ends with a game I wanted higher, but that's clearly irrelevant right now. And besides, I wanted to end with the same thought I had the last time I let my picks be dictated by the numbers:

Perfect. I usually like having little depending on Monday night's outcome.