My NBA pre-season predictions were once again more accurate than my NHL ones, as I got 11 of the 30 teams in their correct final spots in the standings for the second straight year. I also correctly identified 11 of the 16 playoff teams (five in the East and six in the West). My predicted Finals is still alive, and I'm feeling pretty confident that I was right about which four teams in the Western Conference will be advancing in this round. As is what always seems to be the case with the NBA Playoffs predictions, I see no point in not playing it safe as there is usually very little in the way of surprises in basketball. Hell, after a 73-9 season, I've seen only one observer thus far who isn't picking the Warriors to repeat as champions in June. Like many others, I clearly overestimated the Bulls this year—but I'm fairly relieved that I will not have to endure any further embarrassing displays from that garbage fire this season, In all likelihood, there's maybe two suspenseful series in this round (involving four teams in the Eastern Conference that all finished with the same record). Last year was the first year I can remember ever going a perfect eight for eight in opening round predictions (NBA or NHL), and I kind of like my chances of doing that again this year. However, my pick of the Clippers over the Spurs last season was something of an upset that came to pass and I'm not really about to pick anything outside of popular opinion this time around.
As is so often the case when the Stanley Sup Playoffs begin, I get to look back on my preseason predictions and basically make everything red. For the second straight year, a mere five of the teams in their correct spots in the final standings—although I has the top three teams in the Central and the Metropolitan right, just in the wrong order. I correctly guessed seven of the eight Western Conference playoff teams, but only five of the eight Eastern Conference playoff teams. (FULL DISCLOSURE: I originally entered that predicted Lightning opponent as "Red Blue Jackets," which I'm assuming was intended to be Columbus and not Detroit—even though the Wings would've counted as another correct guess.) At least both of my final two teams are still alive this year—although both seem rather vulnerable from the outset. While I'll certainly be rooting for the Blackhawks to repeat and win a fourth Cup in seven seasons, the team's defense is still somewhat of a concern. Of course, the most pressing issue this year may be how much hockey I get to watch. The hope is that holding a sleeping child while watching late-night playoff games goes over well with the wife, but the child's newfound love of the kid's apps on my phone could pose problems if I'm forced to rely on the NBC Sports app. I'm fairly confident I'll find one way or another to watch as much hockey as I can consume, and I'm expecting surprises along the way.
Let me just begin by saying that I really have no idea. I didn't do so well on my baseball picks last year, and probably haven't done well since I don't know, 2004. So there's nothing this year that makes me feel especially confident about what I'm about to forecast. I'm immediately skeptical because of the number of people picking the Cubs to win the World Series this year—a bad sign if there ever was one. Still, the Cubs are deserving favorites in the National League, although there's certainly any number of possible contenders. The American League, on the other hand, strikes me as being fairly wide open. I don't particularly like any of the teams to win their respective divisions, so I'm sort of of holding my nose as I post those picks. Anyway, as is so often the case with these beginning of the year predictions, I'm pressed for time and will be forgoing commentary for each division. Not that I would have offered anything terribly insightful.
As was probably evidenced by lack of a set of predictions for the nominations announcement this year, I have once again paid little mind to this year's Oscar race. I guess the show is Sunday. And this year will mark the first time in, what, eight years since I haven't posted a full set of predictions? Judging by the pretty much total consensus about winners in the "Big Eight" categories, I might regret that as this seems like it could be a pretty good year to bulk up on that scoring total I used to keep. But in all honesty, my late lunch break is almost over and I'm just not going to get the time this weekend. So I'll just go on record as saying that like pretty much everybody else, I'm expecting The Revenant to win Best Picture, Alejandro G. Iñárritu to win again for Directing, Leonardo DiCaprio for Lead Actor, Brie Larson for Lead Actress, Sylvester Stallone for Supporting Actor, Alicia Vikander for Supporting Actress, Spotlight for Original Screenplay, and The Big Short for Adapted Screenplay. If that were in order of confidence, it would probably be the two male actors, the two female actresses, the screenplays, and then the director and the film. Voila.
I guess it figures that after I began this NFL season by boasting about how I correctly predicted the Patriots would win the Super Bowl last year, this season ends with two teams that I did not even have making the playoffs. I also guess that I can't complain too much because I could realistically find reason to be happy with either club winning. Chances seem good that we're going to hear at least one mention that current Bears head coach John Fox was the man who preceded the current head coaches for both of these teams. Fox took both the Panthers and the Broncos to Super Bowls, but still has yet to win one. So there may be some lingering concern during any dropping of his name that Chicago could build a content but will need somebody new to get over the hump. While I admire the job Ron Rivera has done in turning Carolina into something of a juggernaut this year, it's hard for me to really give too much credit to Gary Kubiak. The man essentially inherited a future Hall of Fame quarterback (admittedly in the twilight of his career) and perhaps the best defense in the league. Mostly, I just loathe John Elway's dismissal of Fox (as well as his recent justification for doing so). So my rooting interest lies more or less with the team that, of course, is coached by a former Bear and has multiple former Bear players on its roster.
I once again got three games I was most confident about out of the four total last weekend, bringing me to a six out of eight mark on the entire playoffs. Last weekend was also somewhat sad for me because it more or less marked the end to any updates to my beginning-of-the-year picks, as I had all four of these remaining teams eliminated before this current round. What we're left with provides for some fairly compelling storylines. On one side is the umpteenth chapter of the Brady-Manning era, and probably the game I'm least excited for—partly because of the "been there, done that" feel to having either one of these quarterbacks get to the Super Bowl and partly because I'm still bitter that I thought both teams were going to falter before getting to the big game. Now one will move on. There's much discussion about this possibly being Peyton's last game, but forgive me for not buying it. Hell, I might as well make Patriots-whoever Manning is playing for my AFC Championship pick next year. On the other side of the bracket are two teams from cities (or states, I guess) that have yet to taste championship glory. Cam Newton and Carson Palmer have both had stellar seasons, and there's very good reason to believe that both of these teams have the potential to be making regular appearances in this game over the coming seasons. Of course, the last time I remember saying that was when we had a Thunder-Heat NBA Finals—the only such meeting we've had since. So maybe I should cool my jets a bit. The bottom line is that we've gone from playoffs that began with fairly obvious outcomes to now having any one of the four remaining Super Bowl possibilities seem quite realistic.
I got three of the four game right last weekend, thinking that at least one of the home teams was going to have to win. Just one. Right? Wrong. Not only did the Packers seemingly return to ass-kicking form, but it was tremendously amusing to see the fired up fans in Houston taken out of the game on the opening kickoff. There were but few real highlights or great games last weekend, but we now seem to be at a point where we're much more likely to get high quality football from here on out. In one conference, we could be looking at yet another chapter in the Brady-Manning rivalry next weekend. In the other conference, the top two seeds that have been debated as being the best all year long are also shaping up for a showdown. And then, of course, there is the very realistic possibility that any of the four others could pull off upsets lead to continued Cinderella runs. Considering how awful my picks were at the beginning of the year, I'm a bit shocked to see that we could end up with three of the four teams I had in the conference championship round still alive. Surely, I'll have to pick all three of those teams in an effort to look good. Right? Wrong.
Well, looks like we already know I won't be right about the predicted Super Bowl winner this year. Hell, I wasn't right about much at all. But hey, the Colts that so many people picked to get to the Super Bowl didn't make the playoffs either. I only had one of the eight division winners right this year (must be a record low) and a mere eight of the 32 teams in the correct final standing spot with and absolutely no divisions perfectly predicted but two divisions in which I got none of the four teams right. Additionally, I only had half of this year's playoff teams right, with my seeding of the Patriots being second the only correct call.
So all in all, a pretty awful year thus far. Putting on my fan's hat perspective for a second, I was somewhat able to relax and enjoy games more this year by declining to participate in any fantasy football leagues. Not once did I regret that decision. While I did download the DraftKings and FanDuel apps, I've never made my initial deposit to play either—and the recent scandal didn't do much to make me reconsider either. The John Oliver segment on fantasy sports was, of course, brilliant:
I say "somewhat able to relax" because there's never any real moment of pure relaxation in our home now that the child is 19 months old and walking, climbing, and just generally causing trouble every hour of the day she isn't asleep. I don't know how much time I'll actually be able to dedicate to the playoffs, but here's to hoping for the best.
We've arrived at my third set of pre-season predictions, and (if 2014 was any indication) presumably my last post of 2015. In looking over picks elsewhere on the web, I've noticed two things:
Most sites are limiting predictions just to which two teams will be playing in the NBA Finals this June (maybe I should really start considering that); and
Every single person has the Cavaliers winning the Eastern Conference.
I'm not going to be one to argue with that last belief, seeing as LeBron managed to carry the team to the Finals last season even after Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving fell to injuries. There's not much reason to believe that won't happen again this year. The West, however, is once again wide open with possibilities. A person could pick any one of four or five teams and have a reasonable argument as to why that team will win a title. I guess NBA fans could probably use the basketball starting, what with the recent near-death experience of Lamar Odom and now the unfortunate passing of Flip Saunders. I really didn't have time to do up any special graphic for these picks, so I instead offer that softened photo of a man everybody generally seemed to regard as a good guy.
Alas, my perfect prediction record finally ended with an NLCS result that was nearly the complete opposite of what I had forecasted in the last round. Hey, but my ALCS prediction was right on, so that puts me at 7-1 this postseason with three series predicted in the correct number of games. We've arrived at a finale that is the first World Series ever between two post-1960s expansion teams. Of course, the story all year long has been the possible Back to the Future correlation of 2015. With the Cubs now gone, we're looking at the team that possibly winning the Series being the team that last won it the year that film was released. The other outcome would be the team that hasn't won a Series since the following year. Oddly enough, this series also beings on October 27—the exact same date that both of these teams last won those World Series in their respective years of 1985 and 1986. If this series goes the full seven games, the November 4 finale would match the record for latest closing act ever. I don't really know what kind of TV ratings this World Series will garner (I mean, there is a New York team here), but I'm hopeful that we're going to get one really exciting finale.
Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me, E-mail Me
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"I don't know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody."
— Herbert Bayard Swope
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