I had originally hoped to squeeze in all my picks before the holiday—maybe even go strictly by the numbers like I did Thanksgiving weekend last year, you know, when I won—but those last five this time around are still being decided. And I can't put my faith in what the numbers spit up this week without a few modifications (you'll see ...).
Still, I did have to get tomorrow's games in there, so here's what I've got:
11 points Green Bay Packers(6-4) over Detroit Lions (2-8) +12/-5 : +94/99/-5 : 0/+82
Both teams are dealing with their share of injuries, but no Calvin Johnson and no Matthew Stafford equates to no chance for the Lions—no matter who's missing from Green Bay's defense.
I'd be more worried about the Raiders if the game weren't so important to Dallas. Tony Romo's 3-0 record on the holiday doesn't hurt either.
9 points New York Giants (6-4) over Denver Broncos (6-4) +42/0 : +43/38/-5 : +1/-5
Riskiest pick of the day, but the Giants at least regained a little bit of their footing by ending their four-game losing streak while Denver's still in the midst of a freefall.
So as it is right now, the Blackhawks are exactly where I said they'd be at the end of the year—which is to say first in their division and second in the conference. In all honesty, however, I expected the start to be a little slower, what with Hossa not on the ice yet.
Instead, much to my pleasant surprise, the team has come out and played lights out most every time I've watched them. Their longest losing streak of the season so far hasn't been but a mere two games while right now they're enjoying a seven-game winning streak—the last three of those all coming on the road during the typically not-so-hot "Circus Trip" (it appears the Bulls—whom we'll get to later—are upholding the traditionally disappointing results of a fortnight-long road trip).
Perhaps best of all would be the recent report that the big three of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Kieth would ALL be staying in Chicago. While that's not official yet and it's fair to wonder what contracts would have to be moved in order to finally put this concern to rest, the bottom line remains that there truly is not time like right now for this team. Whatever your feelings on whom is expendable and whom is not among those contracts, this is the one year you have all the guys in one place, so you might as well make the most of it.
Our concerns heading into this season had primarily been with the goaltending, but that doesn't seem to be bothering me too much of late. Cristobal Huet has been fine so far but even rookie goalie Antti Niemi has been a pleasant surprise, already having recorded two shutouts this season. (Longtime Devil center John Madden is certainly proving to be as equally pleasant a surprise in his first year as a Hawk.)
So what's stopping Chicago from hoisting the Stanley Cup? Well, there's still three more quarters of a season yet to come, so there's the usual concerns about somebody getting hurt. And of course we still haven't seen how Hossa will fit in best among the lines Coach Q will more than likely be toying with in the coming weeks, but both of those are very minor points of contention. What we have right now one-fourth of the way into the NHL season is a lot of cause for optimism among the hockey fans in Chicago, because certainly we're suffering from "high-class problems" that are typically the minor annoyances from perennial contenders.
And I'm fairly confident that we're not going to be seeing a more memorable game though (at least as far as the regular season goes) than the mid-October rally from five goals down to beat the Flames (Puck Daddy included it as No. 8 on the best games of the decade). Forgive me as I get reacquainted with the feeling of being out in front, but I think I could get used to this.
Going by the spread would've been the best score last week, as my picks were worth only 77 points and finished only better than my own numbers. Let's hope for better luck this week, but you'll probably notice that there isn't much variety among these picks:
16 points Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) over Kansas City Chiefs (2-7) +26/-1 : +80/82/-2 : -1/+54
Pressure's on Pittsburgh to keep pace with the Bengals now that they're essentially two behind in the division after getting swept for the season. Kansas City's already sputtering offense isn't likely to improve this week now that the team's number one receiver is sitting out the next four weeks.
The Bengals have had problems in Oakland in the past, but so had everybody before this year's Raiders. And I think I've learned my lesson that these are not the usual Bungles we've grown accustomed to.
14 points New Orleans Saints (9-0) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) +74/-2 : +150/152/-2 : 0/+76
It's just too hard for me to believe the Saints can really run the table, but I don't have the guts to call an upset here. I think Tampa can certainly give them problems like N'awlins has been having in recent weeks but at the end of the day, I'll stay with the Saints.
Banged-up Seahawks will never find a groove in the Metrodome—or a way to stop Adrian Peterson.
12 points New England Patriots (6-3) over New York Jets (4-5) +36/-3 : +26/42/-16 : -13/-10
The Jets aren't talking quite as tough as the last time these two teams met, and Bill Belichick would probably help put a lot of the criticism of last week's decision behind him by pummeling Rex Ryan's squad.
11 points Dallas Cowboys (6-3) over Washington Redskins (3-6) +40/-1 : +67/56/+11 : +12/+27
The first visit to their new stadium by perhaps their biggest rival in the division is not the type of game the Cowboys are bound to take lightly. The NFL owes them a few calls after last week's debacle too.
Tempting to think the new head coach results in an immediate upset, but it's more realistic to think the mighty MJD runs up the numbers as a way of making it up to his fantasy owners for taking that knee last week.
9 points Green Bay Packers(5-4) over San Francisco 49ers (4-5) +3/-5 : +17/18/-1 : +4/+14
The Pack is back in the playoff race with last week's win while the Niners defense isn't likely to get spotted five interceptions again.
8 points Arizona Cardinals (6-3) over St. Louis Rams (1-8) -2/-22 : +90/112/-22 : 0/+92
I'm still not totally sold on the Cards, but chances are that this should be another glorious return to St. Lou for Kurt Warner.
7 points New York Giants (5-4) over Atlanta Falcons (5-4) +35/0 : +56/37/+19 : +21/+19
Same records, but the Giants have been spending two weeks waiting for this game. Eli & Co. need it more, period. Anybody afraid of dealing with the dreaded Atlanta media?
6 points
Detroit Lions (1-8) over Cleveland Browns (1-8) -6/+82 : +71/11/+82 : 0/+77
My sympathy to anyone forced to actually watch this.
5 points San Diego Chargers (6-3) over Denver Broncos (6-3) +38/+7 : +28/20/+8 : +1/-10
Two teams headed in different directions and I'll take the Chargers while they're on the rise. The run at the division was fun while it lasted, Denver.
4 points Indianapolis Colts (9-0) over Baltimore Ravens (5-4) +72/-3 : +70/48/+22 : +25/-2
If Terrell Suggs weren't out, I'd probably go the other way. But instead I'm going to hold off on picking against Indy again.
3 points Carolina Panthers (4-5) over Miami Dolphins (4-5) +11/+28 : +33/8/+41 : +13/+22 2 points Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) over Chicago Bears (4-5) +18/+4 : +9/17/+26 : +22/-9
I'm tired of being disappointed by the Bears this year (for now ... bound to change next week). 1 point Tennessee Titans (3-6) over Houston Texans (5-4) -11/+16 : -4/5/+1 : +2/-7
Call me crazy. Vince Young's been responsible with the ball in his first three games back and now in Texas with the aid of teammates looking to avenge their home opener loss, the Titans get some big plays from him when not riding Chris Johnson to an upset.
I made the most of those two extra games last week in a way, going 8-7 with my picks last week and finally finishing with a winning record after two straight 6-7 weeks. No more byes for the remainder of the season, which I actually think should help me since it has become apparent that my standing in my pools this year is entirely because of my point allocation and not my straight-up prediction ability. My 91-53 mark on the year is second-worst in the Yahoo pool I'm in and yet I'm in third place.
As for the other pool in which I regularly reference (the bigger one, we'll call it), my score of 77 points last week was good for 9th place out of 13. My 811 points on the year still has me in second place for the overall race, but I'm now 30 points behind the leader and only eight points ahead of third place. So I'll need some luck to really go my way over the final weeks to make a push for first.
I suppose I could still get into the playoffs in fantasy football, but I'm pretty sure that mathematical elimination is coming for me in the near future after getting trounced last weekend. This week I'll be playing the resident cellar-dweller in that league in a battle I've said is the equivalent of the Browns-Lions game this weekend.
In the straight-up comparisons here, Merrill Hoge from ESPN stayed hot and posted an 11-4 mark along with Seth Wickersham. Michael Silver from Yahoo finished right behind them at 10-5. Pete Prisco from CBS Sports as well as Eric Allen and Adam Schefter finished 9-6. Jason Cole, Charles Robinson, Mike Golic, Chris Mortensen and Mark Schlereth all shared the same 8-7 score I had. Ron Jaworski's 8-6 mark is technically a better percentage than that last group, but we'll leave his score here for being a pud. And poor bro-in-law brings up the rear this week with the only losing mark of 7-8.
Now, on the year (numbers in parentheses still indicating where the dude stood in the rankings last week):
And now pressure's on me to go against the right grains if I want to finish atop that list. Still seven weeks to go, so nothing's impossible here. Still, when looking over my Power Rankings, it's obvious that the top ten teams scoring the highest for me are all effectively safe choices as either consistent winners or losers. And I no longer have any team with which my predictions are unblemished, although I have yet to pick against the Giants for one reason or another.
Anyway, here's how the 32 teams in the league are doing for me this year:
Cleveland is certainly not looking any better for getting a prediction to win either, even though there's a good amount of softies left on their schedule with a visit to Detroit this week and the 2-7 Chiefs followed by the 2-7 Raiders around Christmas. But you might notice a pattern in where the Browns find themselves on those more traditional Power Rankings around the league. The Cleveland offense is setting all new sorts of records for futility as it's been more than a full year since either a Browns running back or wide receiver scored a touchdown.
3. (3) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Last week:Lost to Miami, 25-23 (+12)
Actual Record: 1-8
My predicted record: 0-9
My record at predicting their record: 8-1
Points scored for me with wins: 0
Points scored for me with losses: +89
Points taken from me with wins: -13
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +76
Poor Tampa Bay has to try and stop the undefeated Saints this week—and then gets to travel to Louisiana to play them again five weeks after that. They're already focusing on using the draft to help rebuild an inept defense—one their rookie coach didn't give much of a vote of confidence to by saying he needs bigger guys. But Josh Freeman's at least been giving fans a glimpse of hope.
3. (5) DETROIT LIONS
Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 27-10 (+14)
Actual Record: 1-8
My predicted record: 1-8
My record at predicting their record: 7-2
Points scored for me with wins: 0
Points scored for me with losses: +90
Points taken from me with wins: -8
Points taken from me with losses: -6
Plus/Minus: +76
The latest and perhaps saddest chapter in their historic rivalry with the Browns this weekend could represent the team's best chance to win a game for the rest of the year. Needless to say, it's already been blacked out.
5. (6) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Last week: Beat St. Louis, 28-23 (+15)
Actual Record: 9-0
My predicted record: 7-2
My record at predicting their record: 7-2
Points scored for me with wins: +74
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: -2
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +72
You have to take every game seriously when you're trying to go undefeated. With last week's five-point win over the one-win Rams being keyed by the two scores they got from Reggie Bush, how much of a concern is it that they might not have him this Sunday in Tampa?
6. (2) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Last week: Beat New England, 35-34 (-3)
Actual Record: 9-0
My predicted record: 8-1
My record at predicting their record: 8-1
Points scored for me with wins:+72
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: -3
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +69
Looks to me like the Colts can begin counting me in for thinking they can run the regular season just as soon as they win these next two games—both of which are on the road. I can only assume that my pessimism is the result of a media bias against Indy.
Unlike the previous train wrecks on this list, the Chiefs have already gotten two win predictions out of me. Cleveland appears to be the next best opportunity for them to do well, which is coincidentally when they'll be getting their top wide receiver back from serving a four-game suspension. Between now and then? Grab more wrestlers, I guess.
9. (15) MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Last week: Beat Detroit, 27-10 (+14)
Actual Record: 8-1
My predicted record: 6-3
My record at predicting their record: 7-2
Points scored for me with wins: +55
Points scored for me with losses: +4
Points taken from me with wins: -8
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +51
Playing the Seahawks calls attention to the "poison pills" involved in NFL contracts, expected “to be one of many contentious issues” when that collective bargaining agreement gets worked out. Maybe by then the Vikings will have figured out if they're staying in the Metrodome.
10. (10) OAKLAND RAIDERS
Last week: Lost to Kansas City, 16-10 (+1)
Actual Record: 2-7
My predicted record: 1-8
My record at predicting their record: 8-1
Points scored for me with wins: +4
Points scored for me with losses: +59
Points taken from me with wins: -14
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +49
JaMarcus Russell can grab a seat for now, but let's not assume the Raiders have completely given up on him. Even Ochocinco's got his back, blaming it on Russell's supporting cast. With only two exceptions, the schedule's got them playing clubs with winning records for the rest of the year.
11. (14) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Last week:Beat Philadelphia, 31-23 (+4)
Actual Record: 6-3
My predicted record: 4-5
My record at predicting their record: 7-2
Points scored for me with wins: +38
Points scored for me with losses: +13
Points taken from me with wins: -6
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +45
They didn't wait until the last game of the year to take over the division, but they'll have to do it by beating the Broncos in Denver this time around. Hopefully the lawsuits from crazy skanks can be shrugged off.
12. (12) ATLANTA FALCONS
Last week: Lost to Carolina, 28-19 (-5)
Actual Record: 5-4
My predicted record: 5-4
My record at predicting their record: 7-2
Points scored for me with wins: +26
Points scored for me with losses: +22
Points taken from me with wins: -3
Points taken from me with losses: -5
Plus/Minus: +40
They don't seem like such a lock for the playoffs anymore (basically, that's the same for any team not leading their division), and you can always spot the guy who's on my fantasy team when he goes down with an injury. How long is he out for? Oh, could be six weeks, but better keep him in the lineup because he ... might play?
13. (9) WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Last week: Beat Denver, 27-17 (-11)
Actual Record: 3-6
My predicted record: 5-4
My record at predicting their record: 6-3
Points scored for me with wins: +25
Points scored for me with losses: +38
Points taken from me with wins:-11
Points taken from me with losses: -13
Plus/Minus: +39
Now that the Redskins don't have to worry about going to the Supreme Court to defend their names, sure you can bring those signs to their games again.
13. (10) DALLAS COWBOYS
Last week: Lost to Green Bay, 17-7 (-9)
Actual Record: 6-3
My predicted record: 6-3
My record at predicting their record: 7-2
Points scored for me with wins: +49
Points scored for me with losses: +4
Points taken from me with wins: -5
Points taken from me with losses: -9
Plus/Minus: +39
How bad was the officiating at Lambeau? I actually sympathize with the Cowboys on both of those points of contention. One had a particularly devastating effect that dramatically changed the game. Oh and Roy Williams, isn't off the hook here either. You, sir, have been calledout.
13. (13) CAROLINA PANTHERS
Last week: Beat Atlanta, 28-19 (-5)
Actual Record: 4-5
My predicted record: 3-6
My record at predicting their record: 6-3
Points scored for me with wins: +18
Points scored for me with losses: +41
Points taken from me with wins: -13
Points taken from me with losses: -7
Plus/Minus: +39
Nobody can get over those final four games they've got this year (in New England, Minnesota comes to town, at the Giants, and finish with the Saints at home), and already being five back in the division leaves the only viable option pretty much being a wild card. That means they must certainly beat the three teams they play before that four-game stretch, starting with a Miami team of the same record that a runs an offensive style Carolina should know pretty well considering that they were the ones where Dan Henning started doing the wildcat.
16. (17) NEW YORK GIANTS
Last week: BYE
Actual Record: 5-4
My predicted record: 9-0
My record at predicting their record: 5-4
Points scored for me with wins: +55
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: 0
Points taken from me with losses: -20
Plus/Minus: +35
They limped into their bye week on a four-game losing streak and I'm still waiting to pick them to lose. My latest excuse not to will probably have something to do with the return of Aaron Ross.
16. (19) MIAMI DOLPHINS
Last week: Beat Tampa Bay, 25-23 (+12)
Actual Record: 4-5
My predicted record: 4-5
My record at predicting their record: 7-2
Points scored for me with wins: +14
Points scored for me with losses: +25
Points taken from me with wins: -3
Points taken from me with losses: -1
Plus/Minus: +35
The loss of Ronnie Brown will probably be the difference between making the playoffs or not.
"You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash."
Now doing the placekicking: Billy Cundiff. Oh, and that sound you hear is Matt Stover and every Colts fan laughing at you, Baltimore.
22. (22) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Last week: Lost to San Diego, 16-0 (+4)
Actual Record: 5-4
My predicted record: 6-3
My record at predicting their record: 6-3
Points scored for me with wins: +37
Points scored for me with losses: +9
Points taken from me with wins: -5
Points taken from me with losses: -19
Plus/Minus: +22
Anybody else get the feeling that Philly will hang around just enough to get a wild card and then Brian Westbrook will still come back—despite them saying now that he might not—to help them run through the playoffs? Just me trying to make my pre-season picks work out? Possibly.
23. (21) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Last week: Beat Chicago, 10-6 (-2)
Actual Record: 4-5
My predicted record: 2-7
My record at predicting their record: 5-4
Points scored for me with wins: +11
Points scored for me with losses: +24
Points taken from me with wins: -10
Points taken from me with losses: -7
Plus/Minus: +18
After an ugly win over the next team down here, I think it's perfectly justified to ask what kind of team you're supposed to be expecting. I haven't given the Niners much benefit of the doubt this year, but I'm not seeing much that makes me want to change my mind about it either. Seems to me that I got burned by doubting them early, but now they've cooled off considerably.
They've had a knack for doing the opposite of what I've expected, but one scribe thinks we may have saw a defining moment in the career of Aaron Rodgers during the (horribly, horribly officiated) Dallas game.
Let's see: Two-game lead in the division, 1-8 St. Louis this week, and only two more opponents with winning records right now—not to mention another game against the 1-8 Rams, one week after going to 1-8 Detroit. Yes, you can start talking about the playoffs. I still hope you choke.
32. (32) CINCINNATI BENGALS
Last week: Beat Pittsburgh, 18-12 (-6)
Actual Record: 7-2
My predicted record: 3-6
My record at predicting their record: 1-8
Points scored for me with wins: +10
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: -37
Points taken from me with losses: -13
Plus/Minus: -40
I did give the Bengals a shout-out of sorts over on the Tumblr (itreallywasaverygoodweekoverthere), but I see them rising through the ranks once again with the schedule they've got coming up—and even Minnesota and San Diego don't strike me as that daunting for this team anymore.
Severe slide on two-point games continue after I believe I started 6-0 in that category. But I am getting close to locking in some winning records on the year:
Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me, E-mail Me
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"I don't know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody."
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