Round Two of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

I'm already anxious about the conference semifinals beginning tonight for my beloved Blackhawks (this post-season, so far, has been a real, real joy to watch, follow and be a part of ... and that was just the first opponent!), and my opening round picks were just as good as any of the experts over at ESPN or Yahoo!, if not better.

Of course, Barry Melrose was the one guy I saw who had the stones to pick the Ducks to knock off the Sharks while the rest of us played it safe. So he deserves some sort of honorable mention for that, if not a free haircut.

Still, you'll notice a number in parentheses next to the record for the playoff predictions. That denotes the number of what we'll call "exactas" for the number of series that were picked with exactly the right number of games. I'm using that as sort of a tie-breaker, I guess, for the non-existent prize I have prepared for the guy that comes out on top of this at the end.

There's a pretty long list of "experts" here, but I can't really say how many of these folks I'm going to find further picks for (no picks up on ESPN as of this typing and no post from the Puck Daddy contributors yet either), but for now, I'm throwing their names in here just to emphasize how awesome I am. (UPDATE: Same idea and some of the same experts here, but indeed most of the Puck Daddy contributors at the bottom of this list won't be having selections published until the Finals, so enjoy their names just for this round.)

YOURS TRULY: 7-1 (4)
Scott Burnside, ESPN: 7-1 (3)
Matthew Barnaby, ESPN: 7-1 (2)
Barry Melrose, ESPN: 7-1 (1)
Sean Leahy, Puck Daddy: 7-1 (1)
E.J. Hradek, ESPN: 7-1 (0)
Dmitry Chesnokov, Puck Daddy: 6-2 (2)
Pierre LeBrun, ESPN: 6-2 (1)
Matt Romig, Yahoo!: 6-2 (1)
Greg Wyshynski, Puck Daddy: 6-2 (1)
John Buccigross, ESPN: 6-2 (0)
The Rev. Zamboni, Puck Daddy: 6-2 (0)
The Two-Line Pass, Puck Daddy: 5-3 (2)
Jim Fox, Yahoo!: 5-3 (0)
Sarah Spain, Puck Daddy: 5-3 (0)
Ross McKeon, Yahoo!: 4-4 (0)
Hextall454, Puck Daddy: 3-5 (0)

I'll take a minute to enjoy that ...

OK.

Thanks.

Now, on to the next round:

Boston Bruins over Carolina Hurricanes in five games

Yeah, that certainly was pretty incredible how the Canes got here. I was pretty sorry that I missed that finish, and I'm tempted to believe that such a dramatic season-saving performance creates some sort of momentum Carolina can use to catch Boston off-guard. In the end, however, the Bruins are going to make the Hurricanes pay for every mistake and being well-rested after thoroughly ousting the Habs, I think Boston takes the first two and wins one in Raleigh before closing the series out back at home.

Pittsburgh Penguins over Washington Capitals in six games

The NHL has to be loving this second-round matchup, and Pittsburgh apparently is loving Dan Bylsma enough to finally drop that damned interim tag. With good reason too: the Pens won 18 of their 25 and once again dispatched their cross-state rivals in the playoffs. Sure, the Caps owned the season series, but Pittsburgh's a different team now with an offense that's clicking on all cylinders and seems poised to make a second straight appearance in the finals.

Chicago Blackhawks over Vancouver Canucks in six games

A much tougher call than I'd hoped, and I'm certainly among the believers in what Roberto Luongo can do. Still, had the Hawks not closed out their first-round series on the road, I would have been more pessimistic about their chances in Vancouver. Instead, I'm fairly confident that they can get a win in that tough environment and steal one of the first two games. If they can defend the home ice and continue to capitalize on their power play opportunities, that should be enough to put them in the conference finals.

Detroit Red Wings over Anaheim Ducks in seven games

Oh, so what compels me to put the heavily-favored Red Wings lastly among my confidence in picks? Is it my natural, biased hope that Detroit suffers another early exit? Or am I still regretting not buying the Ducks upsetting the Sharks? Whetever it is, I just cannot bring myself to pick against the Wings in this round. I saw none of the action from their sweep of Columbus, but the evidence leads me to believe that however half-hearted Detroit's play looked at the end of the regular season, they've indeed flipped the necessary playoff switch to ultimately oust Anaheim.

NBA Playoffs, Round One

I should have mentioned that for the sake of comparison, I'll be referring to the picks of "experts" from Yahoo! and ESPN in both the NBA and NHL Playoffs. So, let's see where I end up.

Forgive me for not being more excited about the NBA this year. For one, my luck in the pool at work was fucking terrible. Secondly, the Bulls got in and now get to perhaps lose by a somewhat smaller margin in their inevitable first-round exit. And lastly, I might have to watch the Lakers win another NBA Championship. Not what I want.

As far as my predictions from the beginning of the season go, my Finals pick is technically still alive (but far from likely). I got six of the eight Eastern Conference playoff teams right, while I was seven of eight in the West.

Here's how I see Round One, in the usual descending level of confidence:

Cleveland Cavaliers over Detroit Pistons in four games

I actually debated about picking the Cavs to get that top spot in the East, and of course played it safe instead. But the environment in Cleveland from what I've seen on television all year is pretty impressive and even if it is indeed a case of the fans overly whooping it up to try and keep LeBron in town, it's going to really make that home court advantage a killer. Beyond that, I'm guessing LeBron is going to want to send a message and will pick it up where ever any of his teammates let him down.

Los Angeles Lakers over Utah Jazz in five games

Yuck. I'd love to see Deron Williams have a great series and pull off a spectacular upset, but let's get real. Everything's coming up roses for L.A. these days, whether it's the prospect of having Bynum around for this year's run or the news that KG won't be around if there's a Finals rematch (and, no, there probably won't be). And in Utah, the Lakers get a first-round opponent who sort of had a freefall into the eighth spot, perhaps the result of a clubhouse coming apart as uncertainty abounds with the team's free-agent forwards. The Jazz win Game Four to save a little face, but then get prompty shellacked and hit the golf course after Game Five.

Orlando Magic over Philadelphia 76ers in five games

I still think of how the Times' Jonathan Abrams put it back in January:

The Magic’s opponents are victims of doomed-if-they-do, doomed-if-they-don’t when Orlando has the ball. If Howard is surrounded near the basket, Nelson, Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu are usually isolated for easy jump shots. If Howard is not swarmed, he possesses all the requisite skills to score against any defender.

And Philly provides little in the middle to stop Howard from beginning a march toward the conference finals.

Boston Celtics over Chicago Bulls in five games

If you're actually reading this shit, then I'll let you in on a little something I did today that was probably pretty shameful. But when I was at work today, I saw the news today on the bottom of the screen on ESPN about Danny Ainge's heart attack one day after the news about their star possibly being gone for the entire post-season and just busted out laughing. I mean, the guy didn't die, so it wasn't that tasteless.

Anyway, the Celtics have beaten teams like the Bulls without KG, and I'm sure they get by just fine.

Denver Nuggets over New Orleans Hornets in seven games

I do like the possibility of CP3 making another strong playoff run, but the Nuggets are the one team I didn't see in the post-season when my making my picks at the beginning of the year (my eighth team from the West was—yikes—the Clippers) and I can buy into your suggestion of Chauncey Billups for MVP. I'm guessing the home team wins every game here and the Hornets are just too banged up for the long haul.

Portland Trailblazers over Houston Rockets in seven games

Hmmm ... Here's a Portland bunch I was never really crazy about but now have come to love since a second round date with L.A. would mean the Lakers have to play in a place they haven't won in the past four or so seasons. The problem is that in order for that to happen, the Blazers have to first get by a Rockets bunch that desperately wants to get out of the first round. There's a tremendous stigma for Yao Ming to shake, even if T-Mac can only watch. Still, I'm thinking Portland attacks and gets the calls at home necessary to keep fans in Houston frustrated about another one-and-done end to the year.

San Antonio Spurs over Dallas Mavericks in seven games

Sports Illustrated had the Spurs beating the Celtics, if I recall correctly, and how terribly that worked out for them since, like Boston, San Antonio enters the playoffs with one crucial element of their past success certainly out for the entire post-season (Manu Ginobli) and their star (Tim Duncan) ailing. But the Spurs beat this same Mavericks team without either of those guys back in February. Even if the Mavs can steal one in San Antonio, I still think the Spurs are crafty enough and deep enough to win in Big D and make a bid to get to the conference finals.

Miami Heat over Atlanta Hawks in seven games

What's the best way to show respect for the two teams I didn't have making the playoffs in the Eastern Conference if they're playing one another? Miami I had as a nine, so I knew they'd be around, but I seem to recall thinking a mid-season move with Mike Bibby was going to be the story in Atlanta. So much for that.

But the story in the end here, of course, is D-Wade. My guess is that whatever impressive showings you might get from the Hawks, Wade finds himself at the line as often as he needs to be and Miami enjoys one round of victory.

Round One of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

If I'm a little slow about getting into baseball season, it's entirely because the attention that time allows me to pay to sports almost always is looking for post-season play. Within a week, basketball and hockey both begin their playoffs, and yeah, they're not as much fun as baseball or football; it's hard to build up too much enthusiasm for a post-season berth in the two sports about to begin their post-season when it's actually more likely for a team to make the playoffs than it is to miss them (16 out of 30 teams in both leagues get to go to the playoffs).

Nonetheless, I'm maintaining a wee bit of commitment to following up on my "bold" predictions before this NHL season began. And, boy, that wasn't too pretty for a trial run. Aside from the fact that my predicted champion didn't even make the post-season, I only got two of the six division winners right (we'll get into more detail about some later). I suppose there's still the off-chance that Pittsburgh could still come out of the East, whatever that's worth.

Nonetheless, my enthusiasm for a long overdue appearance by the Blackhawks is certainly a lot more palpable compared to the playoff-bound Chicago Bulls. And that's ironic in a small way because that wasn't really the story the last time I remember both teams being in the playoffs. More specifically, I have a very distinct memory of the Blackhawks getting to the Stanley Cup and losing to the Penguins, but none of us really cared or were all that bothered by it because the Bulls were about to repeat as NBA Champions.

Those were very good times, obviously.

Here's hoping for the best this year (I think this set of predictions got us off to a good start). As always, picks are presented in descending order of confidence:

Pittsburgh Penguins over Philadelphia Flyers in six games

I almost forgot about how early I'd written Pittsburgh off before it turned out that interim coach Dan Bylsma would turn the Pens into an offensive threat that can rival last season's. The rematch of cross-state rivals doesn't have the added drama of last season's Eastern Conference Finals meeting, but I'm expecting the same team to come away after fighting off the Flyers a little longer than they had to last year.

Boston Bruins over Montreal Canadiens in six games

It certainly doesn't look good for Montreal on paper, but this is the playoffs and the last time the Boston Bruins were the top seed in the East, they were knocked out in the first round—by the Canadiens. Now, there's also been mention that the Canadiens have won 24 of the 31 playoff series between the two teams, but there's not much good reason to believe that the same big, bad Bruins we've seen all year won't eventually overpower the hapless Habs.

San Jose Sharks over Anaheim Ducks in six games

A few weeks ago, I recall watching the Sunday game on NBC and hearing a lot of talk about looking out for Anaheim in the playoffs. Here they are, although admittedly in the last possible spot for the Western Conference. And while they're pretty much flip-flopped from where I imagined where they'd be in terms of home ice at the beginning of the season, the Ducks' lower seed doesn't rerflect a pretty good divisional rivalry that should provide a few good games to watch. Still, the Sharks have played like the best of the West all year and their defense is going to be hard for any team in either conference to deal with.

Chicago Blackhawks over Calgary Flames in six games

Obviously desired outcome aside, the Hawks caught a major break in getting Calgary in the opening round. The Flames are banged up and let their division (along with a first-round home ice advantage) slip away in the final week of the season. I still remember some of Kiprusoff's work in goal from the Flames' run to the Cup five years ago, but he's up against the same goalie he was then in Khabibulin. Only difference this time is that there's going to be hockey in Chicago and it's hard not to imagine the hot Hawks outscoring the Flames, with the infamously young squad perhaps catching a snag or two along the way.

Washington Capitals over New York Rangers in seven games

I'm not terribly fond of Alex Ovechkin, but I can respect the guy's talent. I knew the Caps would be the class of the Southeast, but they're going to have a tough time with New York to start the playoffs with. The Rangers, who rank 28th in goals scored but finished sixth in goals against, are polar opposites of the Capitals, the league's third best team in goals scored but 19th in goals against. Still, Mike Green could be the best defenseman in the NHL and I think Ovechkin's got strong enough support around him if he can't break through in this series.

Detroit Red Wings over Columbus Blue Jackets in seven games

I love watching the Red Wings lose almost as much as Michigan University; it almost feels like both can do so on an almost colossal level. I was tempted to believe that the same sort of thing could happen to the heavily favored Red Wings, running into a young division rival that would just love nothing more than to rain on Detroit's parade. I'm guessing the atmosphere in the arenas of these two closely located cities should be pretty intense, but ultimately I'm suspecting the Red Wings will snap out of their lackadaisical finish to the regular season.

Carolina Hurricanes over New Jersey Devils in seven games

The suddenly resurgent Hurricanes will certainly get a stiff scoring test to start the playoffs in the Devils' Martin Brodeur. But if you haven't noticed, I have yet to predict an upset. I probably should have learned my lesson about underestimating Jersey after they took the Atlantic, but when it comes to the hype surrounding the Canes, I'm totally buying; they won 13 of their last 18 games and Cam Ward caught the sort of fire he had when he took Carolina to the Cup in 2006. Should be long and grueling.

Vancouver Canucks over St. Louis Blues in seven games

Another very tempting upset pick, but I just can't go against the Canucks, who gained themselves some home ice late in the season by taking the division from Calgary. Of course, Vancouver's been a total surprise to me all year (I had them last in the Northwest), and while I'm well aware that Chris Mason's a stud in goal for St. Louis (9-1-1 over his last 11), I'm giving respect to Roberto Luongo and what should be a typically manic home crowd in Vancouver.

Play Ball (2009 Edition)

Just as I was getting excited about hockey again, it's time to throw my predictions out there for another season of baseball. I know, I know ...

Just to reflect on how awful I've been here in the past, last year I correctly picked two of the six division winners—and those were the gimmes, too (they'll probably be the same story this year, but we'll get to that in a minute). But not even close in the playoff picks at the beginning of the year (I got four out of seven, when doing the round-by-round thing). In 2006 (the only other year I had MLB picks up), the results were a little more encouraging. I had three of the six division winners right and was correct about the NL's representative in the World Series.

So, add all that up and there's plenty of room for improvement. Here's how I've got things breaking down this year:

American League East

Tampa Bay Rays


New York Yankees


Boston Red Sox


Toronto Blue Jays


Baltimore Orioles

Oh sure, I'm tempted to do the usual version of Boston and New York at one and two. I tried doing something outside the norm last year by picking Toronto, and instead it was Tampa who came out of nowhere to take a playoff berth away from the usual duo of post-season squads that come out of this division. While Cito Gaston is still in Toronto, that rotation lost a key element to the Yankees. The Rays have a set of arms to rival the Yankees and Red Sox, and by the time David Price comes back up from the minors, I'm thinking Tampa is going to prove last year was no fluke.

American League Central

Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers


Surprisingly, the Royals have been the boutique pick to surprise by many of the same people who kept saying Milwaukee was going to surprise us year after year. Or maybe that's just how it feels.

Perhaps I'm just still a little stunned at the former Cub that ended up in Cleveland. I mean Mark DeRosa, not Kerry Wood—although I'm sure both will probably be beneficial to the Indians this year.

I don't think you're going to be seeing too many fans sitting in the seats of Comerica Park this year.

American League West

Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners


Mike Scioscia is still coaching in the Anaheim area and an otherwise weak division. It's highly unlikely the Angels win 100 games again, but with Mark Texiera declining $160 million, you have to imagine this team will have the financial flexibility to pull off some big moves during the season that help them make some noise in October.

National League East

New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins
Washington Nationals

Oh, it's been entertaining to watch the past few abysmal ends to Mets seasons, for sure. But with Jerry Manuel there from the very start this year, you have to believe that the attention paid to bullpen concerns this off-season is going to help put New York in the playoffs—and actually make them stick around.

The defending World Champion Phillies should give the Mets a good, long battle for the division crown, but I'd be surprised if both teams don't end up playing in October.

I want to keep my fingers crossed about my Braves, but without Hudson to start the year, I'm not very optimistic.

National League Central

Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates


The Cubs are popular favorites to win the pennant this year, and it's going to be interesting to get a pulse on that fan base throughout the year. Almost certainly I expect a lot of hyperventilating about any concerns as the season ends and the nagging reminder of the last two years ending in first-round exits.

Still, I wouldn't be surprised if either Houston or St. Louis give the understandably favored Cubbies a little bit of a challenge. Again, as a Braves fan, I find Houston's gamble of making Mike Hampton their number two starter to be quite risky, but their lineup seems likely to get some attention.

National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres


For the record, I hate the Dodgers. Just so we're clear on that. Not as much as the Lakers, but pretty close. And Joe Torre being there doesn't help any.

All of that said, I think they still win this annually ugly division. Then let's just hope they go away, because I'm already fearing an entire season of hearing "Manny for MVP" talk. Ugh.


And now, what we'll all really be laughing at in about six months:

Divisional Playoffs
Rays over Indians in five
Yankees over Angels in four
Mets over Dodgers in four
Phillies over Cubs in four

League Championship Series
Rays over Yankees in seven
Mets over Phillies in six

World Series
Rays over Mets in five