Week Seven Picks

I should confess that in addition to my own numbers I've determined using my own wagering from the season, I've also in recent weeks been giving some consideration to the probability projections determined by Brian Burke over at The New York Times N.F.L. Blog. I would post his prediction numbers as well, but I only appears he began doing the game probabilities in Week Four. I may mention him among the weekly performances that lead off my Power Rankings, but we'll see if I remember. Either way, if you're more that type of numbers junkie like me as opposed to fantasy stat monkey, check him out.

I do remember that last week was the first week that going by my little formula would have resulted in a better score than what I actually earned. Just in case you forgot, I went a season-worst 6-8 and scored 54 points, while last week's numbers would've went 9-7 for 62 points. That would've put me in first place across the board, so ... ouch. I didn't actually realize that until just now.

Oh well. This week, here's what the numbers would have me listing my picks as:

• 13—Colts over Rams (110)
• 12—Pats over Bucs (96)
• 11—Chargers over Chiefs (56)
• 10—Saints over Dolphins (53)
• 9—Packers over Browns (46)
• 8—Giants over Cardinals (42)
• 7 —Cowboys over Falcons (19)
• 6—Jets over Raiders (18)
• 5—Vikes over Steelers (17)
• 4—Eagles over Skins (16)
• 3—Bears over Bengals (14)
• 2—Texans over Niners (6)
• 1—Panthers over Bills (3)
  

And initially, that struck me as a pretty decent list, but of course the flaw in my formula is that it takes no intangibles into the numbers. So as long as I continue to bet against the Rams for instance, even if St. Louis suddenly won three in a row, I don't think they could ever come out of my formula as a favorite until weeks of winning negated the multitude of points they've already earned for me by being terrible.

That's essentially a long way of saying I want to pick a couple upsets this week. And if it ends up backfiring, I can go back to playing it safe and going by the numbers, but for this week I'm taking a couple of chances:

13 points
Indianapolis Colts (5-0) over St. Louis Rams (0-6)
+40/0 : +110/110/0 : 0/+70

Everybody else will have the same thing, so it's a wash even if the Rams pull off the seemingly impossible. Sorry if using St. Louis in my example in the preface there led you to believe they'd be my upset pick. I still haven't picked St. Louis to win ever since I began posting my game predictions online last season.

12 points
New England Patriots (4-2) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)
+18/-3 : +93/96/-3 : 0/+65

The other part of the natural weekly wash where the top couple point spots are the same teams. I'm sure the Patriots will enjoy putting on a show for the British while the Bucs get what counts as a home loss without having to deal with their own fans.

11 points
Green Bay Packers (3-2) over Cleveland Browns (1-5)
+9/+4 : +50/46/+4 : 0/+41

The Pack is a little banged up, but the Browns offense hasn't clicked all year (their only win was a 6-3 final). Even if Cleveland makes a game of it, Aaron Rodgers pads his fantasy numbers against a defense allowing more than 400 yards per game.

10 points
New York Giants (5-1) over Arizona Cardinals (3-2)
+54/0 : +44/42/-2 : -2/-10

Arizona's been something of a problem for me this year, but I just love going big on the Giants—especially this week in a Sunday Night game at home following a week of having their ass-kicking from the Saints constantly replayed. Eli Manning feasts on the league's second-worst pass defense.

9 points
Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) over Washington Redskins (2-4)
+14/+5 : +33/16/+17 : +12/+19

I'm not terribly fond of the idea of going so high on a road team in a Monday Night game, and Jason Campbell seems at his best against Philly. While the Eagles lost both games to Washington last year, this year's Redskins team doesn't score enough points a game to keep up with a Philly team that does.

8 points
New York Jets (3-3) over Oakland Raiders (2-4)
-11/-10 : +12/18/-6 : +4/+23

You would think that if anybody could break the Jets' West Coast woes (they lost all four games they played there last year), it'd be Mark Sanchez coming back to California for a weekend. Truth is, a much-needed victory will likely be less the result of how their rookie QB plays and more from their second-best rushing attack playing against an Oakland squad whose run defense is fifth-worst.

7 points
Carolina Panthers (2-3) over Buffalo Bills (2-4)
+18/+31 : +37/3/+34 : +3/+19

The Panthers should run all over the league's worst run defense while Ryan Fitzpatrick struggles in replacing Trent Edwards.

6 points
Houston Texans (3-3) over San Francisco 49ers (3-2)
-11/-10 : -10/6/-4 : +11/-1

Frank Gore's back and Michael Crabtree has finally arrived for San Fran, but the Texans defense has been showing signs of turning around while their offense has shown absolutely no signs of slowing down. That doesn't bode well for a Niner defense that allowed 45 points from Atlanta before going into the bye week.

5 points
Dallas Cowboys (3-2) over Atlanta Falcons (4-1)
+35/+4 : +39/19/+20 : +16/+4

No Jerious Norwood equates to no win for the Falcons. Atlanta's defense isn't strong enough to stop a well-rested Cowboys offense that's second in the league.

4 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) over Minnesota Vikings (6-0)
+28/0 : +24/17/+41 : +41/-4

Let's try this again, Part I: Last week's AFC North team in this point spot against the Vikings missed a last-second field goal. Minnesota's not so likely to get such lucky breaks this week on the road with a struggling pass defense against a Pittsburgh squad that's had great success moving the ball through the air.

3 points
Chicago Bears (3-2) over Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)
+17/-9 : -8/14/-22 : -13/-25

Let's try this again, Part II: The Bears let me down in this spot last week but Jay Cutler should fare better against a Bengals defense that got torched by Houston last week and also lost top pass rusher Antwan Odom.

2 points
Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) over San Diego Chargers (2-3)
0/+48 : +13/56/+69 : +21/+13

I fully expect an awful game as well as an awfully close game (a dozen games between these teams in their rivalry have been decided by a single point, the most of any rivalry in the NFL). Chiefs, at home one week after getting their first win on the road, pull off the upset.

1 point
Miami Dolphins (2-3) over New Orleans Saints (5-0)
+2/+16 : +1/53/+54 : +38/-1

Let's try this again, Part III: No, the Dolphins certainly aren't better than the Giants team I had beating the Saints in this spot last week, but they're also not going into New Orleans and they're not dealing with that sort of hype. The Fins historically have a knack for handing undefeated teams their first loss, and the Saints historically have a knack for losing in Miami since they're winless in three trips there.

Week Six Power Rankings

I suppose I was due for a bad week, and that's certainly what last weekend was for me as I posted my worst record so far this year by going a pretty miserable 6-8 on my picks. I got back to my losing ways in the fantasy football league as well, and while that top graphic there shows the lineup I actually lost with, that bottom graphic there using "optimal lineups" clearly shows that it just wasn't meant to be my week because even had I played my best players, I still would have lost by a point. Nice.

Of course, that's fantasy football and if I haven't already made it clear, that's not my top concern (I root for what benefits my confidence pool predictions over what benefits my fantasy numbers every time, although I clearly hope everything works to my advantage). One week after finishing first, I dropped to a 12th place finish (out of 14) by scoring a paltry 54 points last weekend. That puts me at 548 points on the year and drops me back into second place, but I'm only seven points out of first and still 20 points ahead of third.

Michael Silver and Charles Robinson of Yahoo both went 10-4 last week to come out on top of the experts. Mark Schlereth of ESPN was right behind at 9-5 while Ron Jaworski went 8-5. Also from ESPN, Eric Allen, Merrill Hoge and Adam Schefter all went 8-6, as did Yahoo's Jason Cole. Mike Golic went 7-7 while the clusterfuck for last place was shared by myself, the bro-in-law, Chris Mortensen, Seth Wickersham, and Pete Prisco from CBS Sports with 6-8 marks.

Now, on the year (numbers in parentheses indicating where the dude stood in the rankings last week):

1. (1) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 64-26 (.711)
2. (4) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 59-25 (.702)
3. (2) YOURS TRULY: 63-27 (.700)
3. (3) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 63-27 (.700)
3. (6) Charles Robinson, Yahoo: 63-27 (.700)
6. (5) Merril Hoge, ESPN: 62-28 (.689)
6. (6) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 62-28 (.689)
8. (6) LEV, crazy colored glasses: 59-31 (.656)
8. (6) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 59-31 (.656)
8. (13) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 59-31(.656)
11. (10) Mike Golic, ESPN: 58-31 (.652)
12. (11) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 58-32 (.644)
13. (11) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 56-34 (.622)
14. (14) Eric Allen, ESPN: 55-35 (.611)

Now obviously with that many losses last weekend, I'm going to have more red than usual this week in these numbers. But still, only five teams in the negative for me (although only one of those five would likely be able to become positive in a single week):

1. (1) ST. LOUIS RAMS

• Last week: Lost to Jacksonville, 23-20 (+8)
  
• Actual Record: 0-6
• My predicted record: 0-6
• My record at predicting their record: 6-0
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +70
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +70
  
• Link of the Week:

If you want to look for positives in St. Louis, then I guess you could interpret the team's move at the trading deadline to mean that they're still trying to do something this season. (I've got my doubts as to what difference it will make.)

2. (2) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• Last week: Lost to Carolina, 28-21 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 0-6
• My predicted record: 0-6
• My record at predicting their record: 6-0
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +65
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +65
  
• Link of the Week:

If the article's headline doesn't give it away, this sentence tells you all you need to know about how enthused the team is to be playing in London this weekend:

The way the Tampa Bay schedule is set up, the players will be tired when they leave, tired when they get there and tired all the way through the weekend.

3. (5) DETROIT LIONS

• Last week: Lost to Green Bay, 26-0 (+12)
• Actual Record: 1-5
• My predicted record: 0-6
• My record at predicting their record: 5-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +64
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +56
  
• Link of the Week:

"Losing a player like this is sort of a kick between the legs."

4. (3) NEW YORK GIANTS

• Last week: Lost to New Orleans, 48-27 (-1)
  
• Actual Record: 5-1
• My predicted record: 6-0
• My record at predicting their record: 5-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +55
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -1
• Plus/Minus: +54
  
• Link of the Week:

You have to think of last week's loss as "hitting the refresh button on an Internet browser each week," apparently.

5. (8) CAROLINA PANTHERS

• Last week: Beat Tampa Bay, 28-21 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 2-3
• My predicted record: 2-3
• My record at predicting their record: 5-0
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +18
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +31
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +49
• Link of the Week:

Jake Delhomme's passer rating ranks 33rd in the league and both Carolina running backs went over 100 yards last week in their victory, and yet I'm still hoping the Panthers can finally get Steve Smith into the end zone this week—to shut him up, if nothing else.

6. (4) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Last week: Beat Washington, 14-6 (-5)
  
• Actual Record: 1-5
• My predicted record: 0-6
• My record at predicting their record: 5-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +53
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +48
  
• Link of the Week:

I'm starting to think I could make a weekly thing out of updates on possible team blackouts. This week, it's the Chiefs are now wondering if they'll be on TV at the end of the year.

7. (17) CLEVELAND BROWNS

• Last week: Lost to Pittsburgh, 27-14 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 1-5
• My predicted record: 0-6
• My record at predicting their record: 5-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +48
• Points taken from me with wins: -7
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +41
• Link of the Week:

H1N1 sidelines a dozen Cleveland players.

8. (8) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 5-0
• My predicted record: 5-0
• My record at predicting their record: 5-0
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +40
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +40
  
• Links of the Week:

Interesting: According to this chart, the undefeated Colts are 8th on a list of most injured teams.

9. (10) DALLAS COWBOYS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 3-2
• My record at predicting their record: 5-0
• Points scored for me with wins: +35
• Points scored for me with losses: +4
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +39
• Link of the Week:

The hard part of having a running game that employs three backs is keeping everyone happy about how often you use each of the three.

10. (6) MINNESOTA VIKINGS

• Last week: Beat Baltimore, 33-31 (-4)
  
• Actual Record: 6-0
• My predicted record: 5-1
• My record at predicting their record: 5-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +41
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -4
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +37
  
• Link of the Week:

The undefeated Vikings now have a 24th-ranked passing defense that may head into Pittsburgh without cornerback Antoine Winfield.

10. (11) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

• Last week: Beat New York Giants, 48-27 (-1)
  
• Actual Record: 5-0
• My predicted record: 4-1
• My record at predicting their record: 4-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +38
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -1
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +37
  
• Link of the Week:

Kiss of Death: Drawing the comparison to the 2007 Patriots five games into the season.

12. (16) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

• Last week: Lost to Denver, 34-23 (+2)
  
• Actual Record: 2-3
• My predicted record: 2-3
• My record at predicting their record: 5-0
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +21
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +13
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +34
  
• Link of the Week:

Simply mediocre.

13. (12) WASHINGTON REDSKINS

• Last week: Lost to Kansas City, 14-6 (-5)
  
• Actual Record: 2-4
• My predicted record: 4-2
• My record at predicting their record: 4-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +25
• Points scored for me with losses: +19
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -13
• Plus/Minus: +31
  
• Link of the Week:

Say what you'd like about Jason Campbell, but he's 3-1 vs. the Eagles with an 82.8 passer rating, four TDs and one interception in the last two seasons. Of course, you'll also note in that article that the Eagles "have lost consecutive games after the bye week only once since 2000 under quarterback Donovan McNabb."

14. (12) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• Last week: Lost to Arizona, 27-3 (-6)
  
• Actual Record: 2-4
• My predicted record: 4-2
• My record at predicting their record: 4-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +15
• Points scored for me with losses: +22
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
  
• Plus/Minus: +30
• Link of the Week:

The loss to Arizona (the fifth out of the last six times they've met) and now the waiting game for their star linebacker's health isn't leading me to believe that the Seahawks will not be finishing atop the West as I'd thought.

15. (21) PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• Last week: Beat Cleveland, 27-14 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 4-2
  
• My predicted record: 6-0
• My record at predicting their record: 4-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +40
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -12
  
• Plus/Minus: +28
• Link of the Week:

They're suddenly right back in the thick of things in the AFC North, but Big Ben's lawsuit isn't going away.

16. (6) OAKLAND RAIDERS

• Last week: Beat Philadelphia, 13-9 (-14)
  
• Actual Record: 2-4
• My predicted record: 1-5
• My record at predicting their record: 5-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +4
• Points scored for me with losses: +37
• Points taken from me with wins: -14
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +27
  
• Link of the Week:

I guess I can join Antonio Pierce among those guilty for not giving the Raiders enough credit, but I still think Richard Seymour's additional comment that Oakland will make the playoffs this year is somewhat absurd.

17. (14) BUFFALO BILLS

• Last week: Beat New York Jets, 16-13 (-11)
  
• Actual Record: 2-4
• My predicted record: 2-4
• My record at predicting their record: 4-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +10
• Points scored for me with losses: +30
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -11
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
• Plus/Minus: +22
  
• Link of the Week:

Let's talk about Jack Kemp this week instead.

18. (18) ATLANTA FALCONS

• Last week: Beat Chicago, 21-14 (-3)
  
• Actual Record: 4-1
• My predicted record: 3-2
• My record at predicting their record: 4-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +16
• Points scored for me with losses: +7
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +20
  
• Links of the Week:

That could be a problem.

19. (14) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• Last week: Lost to Oakland, 13-9 (-14)
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 4-1
• My record at predicting their record: 4-1
• Points scored for me with wins: +28
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +5
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -14
  
• Plus/Minus: +19
  
• Link of the Week:

The Eagles lose yet another linebacker for the year.

20. (20) MIAMI DOLPHINS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 2-3
• My predicted record: 2-3
• My record at predicting their record: 5-0
• Points scored for me with wins: +2
• Points scored for me with losses: +16
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +18
  
• Link of the Week:

I will have the writer of this article know that this longtime Bears fan was also recalling that 2006 game he speaks of as the Dolphins prepare for the Saints.

21. (19) BALTIMORE RAVENS

• Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 33-31 (-4)
  
• Actual Record: 3-3
  
• My predicted record: 6-0
• My record at predicting their record: 3-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +30
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -15
• Plus/Minus: +15
• Link of the Week:

That Ravens defense ain't what it used to be.

21. (24) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

• Last week: Beat Tennessee, 59-0 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 4-2
• My predicted record: 5-1
• My record at predicting their record: 3-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +33
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
• Points taken from me with losses: -15
• Plus/Minus: +15
• Link of the Week:

Tom Brady guesses that London's Wembley Stadium is probably "pretty flat," you know, being a soccer field. I guess it's hard to say much about the Buccaneers.

23. (26) GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Last week: Beat Detroit, 26-0 (+12)
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 3-2
• My record at predicting their record: 3-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +23
• Points scored for me with losses: +5
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -1
• Points taken from me with losses: -14
  
• Plus/Minus: +13
  
• Link of the Week:

I had kinda forgot Ahman Green ever left Green Bay, but he's back now for whatever he's still worth.

24. (23) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• Last week: BYE
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 1-4
• My record at predicting their record: 3-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +11
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +7
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +10
  
• Link of the Week:

Maybe there still is some Chicago left in Singletary when he's begun the "[INSERT:Shaun Hill] is our quarterback" mannerism.

25. (22) CHICAGO BEARS

• Last week: Lost to Atlanta, 21-14 (-3)
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 4-1
• My record at predicting their record: 2-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +21
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -9
• Points taken from me with losses: -4
  
• Plus/Minus: +8
  
• Link of the Week:

Memo to Ced: The Bears were telling them the truth, but congratulations on your turnaround. Now keep it up.

26. (25) DENVER BRONCOS

• Last week: Beat San Diego, 34-23 (+2)
  
• Actual Record: 6-0
• My predicted record: 4-2
• My record at predicting their record: 4-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +15
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -10
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +5
  
• Link of the Week:

The only two other years that the Broncos have entered the bye week undefeated were in 1997 and 1998—the years of their back-to-back Super Bowl victories.

27. (28) TENNESSEE TITANS

• Last week: Lost to New England, 59-0 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 0-6
• My predicted record: 3-3
• My record at predicting their record: 3-3
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +24
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -21
• Plus/Minus: +3
• Link of the Week:

Kerry Collins knows not of this QB change of which you speak.

28. (29) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

• Last week: Beat St. Louis, 23-20 (+8)
  
• Actual Record: 3-3
• My predicted record: 2-4
• My record at predicting their record: 3-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +8
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +14
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -17
• Points taken from me with losses: -6
• Plus/Minus: -1
  
• Link of the Week:

Of the seven teams listed as possible targets for that stadium they're going to build outside L.A., anybody else think the Jags are the most likely? (And yes, the Rams would make sense in the sort of romantic "return" notion.)

29. (27) ARIZONA CARDINALS

• Last week: Beat Seattle, 27-3 (-6)
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 2-3
• My record at predicting their record: 2-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +5
• Points scored for me with losses: +2
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -12
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
• Plus/Minus: -12
  
• Link of the Week:

Anquan Boldin to be a game-time decision on Sunday night.

30. (30) NEW YORK JETS

• Last week: Lost to Buffalo, 16-13 (-11)
  
• Actual Record: 3-3
• My predicted record: 1-5
• My record at predicting their record: 2-4
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +7
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -17
• Points taken from me with losses: -11
  
• Plus/Minus: -21
  
• Link of the Week:
  

While there's fair attention being paid to concerns about the rookie QB, that defensive line is going to be going through some changes too.

31. (31) HOUSTON TEXANS

• Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 28-17 (-7)
  
• Actual Record: 3-3
• My predicted record: 3-3
• My record at predicting their record: 2-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +4
• Points scored for me with losses: +5
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -20
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -15
  
• Plus/Minus: -26
  
• Link of the Week:

For the love of God, what the hell is going on with Matt Schaub?

32. (32) CINCINNATI BENGALS

• Last week: Lost to Houston, 28-17 (-7)
  
• Actual Record: 4-2
• My predicted record: 3-3
• My record at predicting their record: 1-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +10
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -25
• Points taken from me with losses: -13
• Plus/Minus: -28
  
• Link of the Week:

My cellar-dweller loses out on their own team-related link from now on, so tough shit for you Cincy fans. Instead, take a look at this must-read piece from Malcolm Gladwell comparing dogfighting and football.

My record by point value this season, where I'm below .500 in only two spots and now also at .500 at two spots:

16-point games: 3-0
15-point games: 3-0
14-point games: 4-2
13-point games: 5-1
12-point games: 6-0
11-point games: 4-2
10-point games: 5-1
9-point games: 5-1
8-point games: 4-2
7-point games: 2-4
6-point games: 3-3
5-point games: 4-2
4-point games: 4-2
3-point games: 3-3
2-point games: 6-0
1-point games: 2-4

Week Six Picks

I'm still not putting much faith in what the numbers based upon pool performance suggest yet. Again, I earned 86 points last week with an 11-3 record while last week's numbers would've gone ... 7-7? Wow. And only 69 points too.

So had I gone solely by how teams have performed for me so far in the pool, then the numbers would suggest this week I order my picks like this (this week, I'm including that large number that indicates the difference between the two possible point-earning scenarios ... mostly just to make sure I'm doing it right):

• 14—Jags over Rams (59)
• 13—Eagles over Raiders (56)
• 12—Redskins over Chiefs (51)
• 11—Pats over Titans (46)
• 10—Steelers over Browns (43)
• 9—Packers over Lions (37)
• 8—Jets over Bills (37)
• 7 —Panthers over Bucs (34)
• 6—Bengals over Texans (32)
• 5—Vikings over Ravens (22)
• 4—Bears over Falcons (20)
• 3—Giants over Saints (17)
• 2—Broncos over Chargers (13)
• 1—Cards over Seahawks (8)
  

Now, seeing as I went a different way on a number of games last week, I'd actually say a lot of those are decent suggestions. But the hell if you think I'm putting 14 points on Jacksonville.

That said, here's how I'll be submitting my picks this week:

14 points
Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) over Oakland Raiders (1-4)
+28/+5 : +65/56/+9 : +4/+37

The Raiders got their one win out of the way, and at least I can say I picked it. Putting them at the top of this list each week is a good habit.

13 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) over Cleveland Browns (1-4)
+15/0 : +43/43/0 : 0/+43

It was real nice to break out the Browns sweatshirt again and see them finally pull out an epic 6-3 victory over the Buffalo Bills last week (I'd be more upset about it had I not won for the week, but now it seems like I needed Cleveland to do that), but they're not getting two wins in a row. Not in Pittsburgh. But I will wear the sweat again on Sunday.

12 points
Green Bay Packers (2-2) over Detroit Lions (1-4)
-3/+4 : +41/37/+4 : 0/+44

The Packers haven't been any sort of reliable so far, but the week off should do them some good. The Lions are trying to get through this week to get to their week off and then maybe think about getting a few guys healthy.

11 points
New York Jets (3-2) over Buffalo Bills (1-4)
0/-10 : +30/37/-7 : +3/+30

My first time picking the Jets to win this year, and it comes at a time when they really find themselves needing one. Not that constant T.O. trade rumors and speculation about Dick Jauron's job status are doing Buffalo any favors, but they're on the road coming into a homecoming for a Jets team that's suffered back-to-back road losses and likely to thrive on the atmosphere of being the host again.

10 points
New England Patriots (3-2) over Tennessee Titans (0-5)
+8/-3 : +22/46/-24 : -21/+14

A small part of me sympathizes with the Titans for struggling this long already without a win and wants to believe they're capable of an upset, but they're all sorts of out of whack right now. And I'm pretty sure not many winless teams have gotten their first victories in Foxboro in recent years.

9 points
Carolina Panthers (1-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5)
+9/+31 : +65/34/+31 : 0/+56

The Panthers didn't school the Redskins last week, but they didn't lose either. They had a rough three weeks to start the season before their bye, but I'm pretty sure John Fox knows that the schedule is giving them an opportunity to get right back to .500 with the Bucs this week and the Bills next week. (But if you want to see why they probably won't make the playoffs, look at their final four games.)

8 points
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) over St. Louis Rams (0-5)
-6/-3 : +56/59/-3 : 0/+62

I was tempted as hell to pick an upset, but it's based far too much on wishful thinking and the smartest move here is to take a safer route on the typically unpredictable Jags in a game where they'll be a popular pick. St. Louis hasn't done enough and is going through too much to merit any reasons for actually picking them.

7 points
Cincinnatti Bengals (4-1) over Houston Texans (2-3)
+4/-25 : -4/32/-36 : -11/-8

The two worst teams in my Power Rankings, and I'm putting them in one of my worst spots on the list (I've got losing records of 2-3 in both the 7-point and 1-point spots on the year). Makes perfect sense to me.

6 points
Seattle Seahawks (2-3) over Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
+14/+22 : +12/8/+20 : -2/-4

Perhaps my biggest gamble of the week (I'm guessing most everyone else goes lower on points, and most go with Arizona), but Seattle's the better team in the NFC West this year and they'll prove it here by getting back to .500 at home.

5 points
Washington Redskins (2-3) over Kansas City Chiefs (0-5)
+17/+19 : +70/51/+19 : 0/+53

The Chiefs are a popular upset pick this week, but I like the Skins' chances at home in pulling out a close one.

4 points
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) over Minnesota Vikings (5-0)
+19/0 : +19/22/+41 : +41/0

I was going to have to pick against one of them eventually, and recent weeks have made me less of a believer in the Ravens. Yet here I am unable to resist the idea that five sounds about right for as far as the Vikings win streak goes to begin the season, and Baltimore being just the kind of team that would seem to hand them their first loss.

3 points
Chicago Bears (3-1) over Atlanta Falcons (3-1)
+20/-9 : +27/20/+7 : +16/+7

It should make for one helluva Sunday Night contest, that's for damn sure. Falcons followers credit last year's victory over the Bears as when many became believers of Matt Ryan and the team, but Lovie Smith gets his guys to perform in prime time contests and Jay Cutler seems to have identified more of his weapons than when I last used that logic heading into opening week. Don't think many of the same Bears from last year have forgotten that loss either.

2 points
Denver Broncos (5-0) over San Diego Chargers (2-2)
+13/-10 : +24/13/+11 : +21/+11

I want to believe in a Chargers victory, but I don't. So I won't.

1 point
New York Giants (5-0) over New Orleans Saints (4-0)
+55/0 : +55/17/+38 : +38/0

The Saints' schedule suggests they've had more competitive opponents to prepare them for this showdown, but I'm guessing the week off is going to work against them. It's undoubtedbly the game of the week, and I'm guessing the Giants can thrive on that and make the key plays that make the difference.