Week Five Picks

Had I gone by last week's numbers, I would've earned 89 points instead of the 95 points I got doing it my way. And I would've gone 11-3 instead of 12-2. So at this point, I haven't had too much reason to go against my gut, especially when considering what my crunching the Power Rankings would suggest this week:

• 14—Vikings over Rams
  
• 13—Cowboys over Chiefs
• 12—Colts over Titans
• 11—Giants over Raiders
• 10—Eagles over Buccaneers
• 9—Redskins over Panthers
• 8—Steelers over Lions
• 7—Jets over Dolphins
• 6—Bills over Browns
• 5—Jaguars over Seahawks
• 4—Niners over Falcons
• 3—Ravens over Bengals
• 2—Texans over Cardinals
• 1—Broncos over Patriots
  

Yeah, I had a few immediate corrections. See if you can spot the differences:

14 points
New York Giants (4-0) over Oakland Raiders (1-3)
+41/0 : +64/60/+4 : +4/+23

Now that the Raiders have renewed their commitment to being bad, I couldn't feel more confident that the Giants' first loss will not come at home to an opponent from the AFC West.

13 points
Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4)
+15/+5 : +58/53/+5 : 0/+43

A rather soft welcoming back to the regular season for Philly after a week off.

12 points
Minnesota Vikings (4-0) over St. Louis Rams (0-4)
+29/0 : +79/79/0 : 0/+50

Didn't pick the Rams once last year and this year's not looking much better.

11 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) over Detroit Lions (1-3)
+4/0 : +37/37/0 : 0/+33

Yeah, that'd be a real feel-good story and all, but I'm not betting on Daunte Caulpepper beating the champs.

10 points
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) over Kansas City Chiefs (0-4)
+25/+4 : +68/64/+4 : 0/+43

Part of me wants to believe K.C. is perhaps the most likely of any winless team to break through this week, but in all truth, I can see how the Chiefs remind some people of the 1989 Dallas Cowboys.

9 points
Carolina Panthers (0-3) over Washington Redskins (1-2)
0/+31 : +10/38/+48 : +17/+10

Washington's been in freefall for weeks now while the Panthers are coming back with clear heads and their best shot to get a win yet.

8 points
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) over Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
+27/0 : +10/6/+4 : +4/-17

I've come to sort of hate myself for not going with the Bengals to get into the playoffs this year, but that's not going to be enough to pick against the Ravens at home one week after their first loss.

7 points
Buffalo Bills (1-3) over Cleveland Browns (0-4)
+10/+30 : +45/15/+30 : 0/+35

I'd vote the other way if it was in Cleveland, but Buffalo's hurting for a win with a coach already on the hot seat. On another note, I'm dying to put on my Browns sweatshirt again.

6 points
Indianapolis Colts (4-0) over Tennessee Titans (0-4)
+34/0 : +42/63/-27 : -21/+8

I originally told B. Doggy I'd max out on the Colts for this one, but Indy's shaky past in Tennessee made me reconsider. Still, Peyton Manning's playing like the playoffs already started and the Titans defense hasn't given me much reason to believe they'll be able to slow him or the Colts down.

5 points
Arizona Cardinals (1-2) over Houston Texans (2-2)
-7/-4 : -20/5/-15 : -11/-13

Ugh. Strikes me as more logical that a rested Arizona team is able to show off their air attack against a Houston team that's not so hot against the pass. I guess.

4 points
New England Patriots (3-1) over Denver Broncos (4-0)
+12/-3 : +6/4/+10 : +13/-6

It's tempting to pick Denver once more after last week's satisfying smackdown of the Cowboys, but I have to believe Bill Belichick can find a way to prevent Kyle Orton from ever getting in sync.

3 points
Seattle Seahawks (1-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)
+11/+22 : +5/11/+16 : -6/-6

While Seattle's still likcing their wounds from the asskicking they took in Indy, they've got two home games before the bye week and could enter it at .500. Hasselbeck's return should help fire up one of the league's most celebrated home-field advantages.

2 points
Atlanta Falcons (2-1) over San Francisco 49ers (3-1)
+14/+7 : +11/7/+18 : +11/-3

I've gone back and forth many times over with this one, but Atlanta gets my vote thanks mostly to their coming off a bye week.

1 point
Miami Dolphins (1-3) over New York Jets (3-1)
+1/+16 : -10/26/+16 : 0/-11

I said last week that you would think I should've learned about picking against the Jets. But then again, that worked out pretty well last week—as did picking the Dolphins. But what's really put me over the top on this one (besides preferring to have the least amount possible riding on a Monday Night game) has to be the orange jerseys. You better recognize.