Week Six Picks

I'm still not putting much faith in what the numbers based upon pool performance suggest yet. Again, I earned 86 points last week with an 11-3 record while last week's numbers would've gone ... 7-7? Wow. And only 69 points too.

So had I gone solely by how teams have performed for me so far in the pool, then the numbers would suggest this week I order my picks like this (this week, I'm including that large number that indicates the difference between the two possible point-earning scenarios ... mostly just to make sure I'm doing it right):

• 14—Jags over Rams (59)
• 13—Eagles over Raiders (56)
• 12—Redskins over Chiefs (51)
• 11—Pats over Titans (46)
• 10—Steelers over Browns (43)
• 9—Packers over Lions (37)
• 8—Jets over Bills (37)
• 7 —Panthers over Bucs (34)
• 6—Bengals over Texans (32)
• 5—Vikings over Ravens (22)
• 4—Bears over Falcons (20)
• 3—Giants over Saints (17)
• 2—Broncos over Chargers (13)
• 1—Cards over Seahawks (8)
  

Now, seeing as I went a different way on a number of games last week, I'd actually say a lot of those are decent suggestions. But the hell if you think I'm putting 14 points on Jacksonville.

That said, here's how I'll be submitting my picks this week:

14 points
Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) over Oakland Raiders (1-4)
+28/+5 : +65/56/+9 : +4/+37

The Raiders got their one win out of the way, and at least I can say I picked it. Putting them at the top of this list each week is a good habit.

13 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) over Cleveland Browns (1-4)
+15/0 : +43/43/0 : 0/+43

It was real nice to break out the Browns sweatshirt again and see them finally pull out an epic 6-3 victory over the Buffalo Bills last week (I'd be more upset about it had I not won for the week, but now it seems like I needed Cleveland to do that), but they're not getting two wins in a row. Not in Pittsburgh. But I will wear the sweat again on Sunday.

12 points
Green Bay Packers (2-2) over Detroit Lions (1-4)
-3/+4 : +41/37/+4 : 0/+44

The Packers haven't been any sort of reliable so far, but the week off should do them some good. The Lions are trying to get through this week to get to their week off and then maybe think about getting a few guys healthy.

11 points
New York Jets (3-2) over Buffalo Bills (1-4)
0/-10 : +30/37/-7 : +3/+30

My first time picking the Jets to win this year, and it comes at a time when they really find themselves needing one. Not that constant T.O. trade rumors and speculation about Dick Jauron's job status are doing Buffalo any favors, but they're on the road coming into a homecoming for a Jets team that's suffered back-to-back road losses and likely to thrive on the atmosphere of being the host again.

10 points
New England Patriots (3-2) over Tennessee Titans (0-5)
+8/-3 : +22/46/-24 : -21/+14

A small part of me sympathizes with the Titans for struggling this long already without a win and wants to believe they're capable of an upset, but they're all sorts of out of whack right now. And I'm pretty sure not many winless teams have gotten their first victories in Foxboro in recent years.

9 points
Carolina Panthers (1-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5)
+9/+31 : +65/34/+31 : 0/+56

The Panthers didn't school the Redskins last week, but they didn't lose either. They had a rough three weeks to start the season before their bye, but I'm pretty sure John Fox knows that the schedule is giving them an opportunity to get right back to .500 with the Bucs this week and the Bills next week. (But if you want to see why they probably won't make the playoffs, look at their final four games.)

8 points
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) over St. Louis Rams (0-5)
-6/-3 : +56/59/-3 : 0/+62

I was tempted as hell to pick an upset, but it's based far too much on wishful thinking and the smartest move here is to take a safer route on the typically unpredictable Jags in a game where they'll be a popular pick. St. Louis hasn't done enough and is going through too much to merit any reasons for actually picking them.

7 points
Cincinnatti Bengals (4-1) over Houston Texans (2-3)
+4/-25 : -4/32/-36 : -11/-8

The two worst teams in my Power Rankings, and I'm putting them in one of my worst spots on the list (I've got losing records of 2-3 in both the 7-point and 1-point spots on the year). Makes perfect sense to me.

6 points
Seattle Seahawks (2-3) over Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
+14/+22 : +12/8/+20 : -2/-4

Perhaps my biggest gamble of the week (I'm guessing most everyone else goes lower on points, and most go with Arizona), but Seattle's the better team in the NFC West this year and they'll prove it here by getting back to .500 at home.

5 points
Washington Redskins (2-3) over Kansas City Chiefs (0-5)
+17/+19 : +70/51/+19 : 0/+53

The Chiefs are a popular upset pick this week, but I like the Skins' chances at home in pulling out a close one.

4 points
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) over Minnesota Vikings (5-0)
+19/0 : +19/22/+41 : +41/0

I was going to have to pick against one of them eventually, and recent weeks have made me less of a believer in the Ravens. Yet here I am unable to resist the idea that five sounds about right for as far as the Vikings win streak goes to begin the season, and Baltimore being just the kind of team that would seem to hand them their first loss.

3 points
Chicago Bears (3-1) over Atlanta Falcons (3-1)
+20/-9 : +27/20/+7 : +16/+7

It should make for one helluva Sunday Night contest, that's for damn sure. Falcons followers credit last year's victory over the Bears as when many became believers of Matt Ryan and the team, but Lovie Smith gets his guys to perform in prime time contests and Jay Cutler seems to have identified more of his weapons than when I last used that logic heading into opening week. Don't think many of the same Bears from last year have forgotten that loss either.

2 points
Denver Broncos (5-0) over San Diego Chargers (2-2)
+13/-10 : +24/13/+11 : +21/+11

I want to believe in a Chargers victory, but I don't. So I won't.

1 point
New York Giants (5-0) over New Orleans Saints (4-0)
+55/0 : +55/17/+38 : +38/0

The Saints' schedule suggests they've had more competitive opponents to prepare them for this showdown, but I'm guessing the week off is going to work against them. It's undoubtedbly the game of the week, and I'm guessing the Giants can thrive on that and make the key plays that make the difference.