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We've arrived at my third set of pre-season predictions, and (if 2014 was any indication) presumably my last post of 2015. In looking over picks elsewhere on the web, I've noticed two things:
- Most sites are limiting predictions just to which two teams will be playing in the NBA Finals this June (maybe I should really start considering that); and
- Every single person has the Cavaliers winning the Eastern Conference.
I'm not going to be one to argue with that last belief, seeing as LeBron managed to carry the team to the Finals last season even after Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving fell to injuries. There's not much reason to believe that won't happen again this year.
The West, however, is once again wide open with possibilities. A person could pick any one of four or five teams and have a reasonable argument as to why that team will win a title.
I guess NBA fans could probably use the basketball starting, what with the recent near-death experience of Lamar Odom and now the unfortunate passing of Flip Saunders. I really didn't have time to do up any special graphic for these picks, so I instead offer that softened photo of a man everybody generally seemed to regard as a good guy.
Alas, my perfect prediction record finally ended with an NLCS result that was nearly the complete opposite of what I had forecasted in the last round. Hey, but my ALCS prediction was right on, so that puts me at 7-1 this postseason with three series predicted in the correct number of games.
We've arrived at a finale that is the first World Series ever between two post-1960s expansion teams. Of course, the story all year long has been the possible Back to the Future correlation of 2015. With the Cubs now gone, we're looking at the team that possibly winning the Series being the team that last won it the year that film was released. The other outcome would be the team that hasn't won a Series since the following year.
Oddly enough, this series also beings on October 27—the exact same date that both of these teams last won those World Series in their respective years of 1985 and 1986. If this series goes the full seven games, the November 4 finale would match the record for latest closing act ever.
I don't really know what kind of TV ratings this World Series will garner (I mean, there is a New York team here), but I'm hopeful that we're going to get one really exciting finale.
It indeed seems like something of a rarity to be this far into the playoffs without a Yankees or Red Sox on one side of the bracket and a Cardinals or Giants on the other. Nope, this year we'll be getting a world champion that hasn't last won a Series in at least 22 years.
With these kinds of droughts, we should also get some pretty thrilling settings for the remaining games—seeing as the fans in attendance will be quite worked up. I expect a similar level of enthusiasm from most players too, especially now that Jose Bautista's celebratory bat flip in the last round got so many people worked up.
Anyway, I don't really have too much of an issue with any of the remaining teams (Toronto probably ranks lowest on teams I'd want to see win it all since their 1992 title came at the expense of my beloved Braves), but overall, these are all pretty likable clubs.
Now that we've eliminated the team with the second-best regular season record (yes, I'm still bitter even though I'm cheering for the Cubs to win the World Series within five games so I can see my father weep), we get to actual baseball series. Of course, I think a best-of-five doesn't always determine the best team, but it's certainly a whole helluva lot better than the single-game dumbfuckery.
I think all four series have the potential for some pretty tense and exciting games, but I'm guessing the series in the National League should probably slaughter the American League games in terms of TV ratings. I mean, on one side you have Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles. On the other side, you have Kansas City, Texas, and Canada.
Of course, as has become evident in recent years, concerns about TV ratings are hopelessly misplaced. Even a Yankees-Cubs World Series would still get pounded by any NFL game.
Now that the Wild Card round is over, there's six other clubs that now get to show whether their regular season success carries over into the playoffs. Judging by the predictions I've seen thus far, Toronto is far and away the overwhelming favorite to win the whole damn thing (I have yet to see anybody picking the Rangers to get out of this round).
The fun part (or frustrating, depending on your perspective) though is that a team could get hot right now and suddenly become nearly unbeatable for the next three weeks. So I remain skeptical that the Blue Jays just waltz away with the Commissioner's Trophy in early November (or late October).
When your favorite team is coming off a year in which they just won a Stanley Cup (the third such title in six years, no less), there would presumably some level of excitement about repeating as champions in the coming season after spending the summer celebrating. Yet here we are, with nearly every headline and story relating to the Chicago Blackhawks over the past few months having to do entirely with an alleged rape involving Patrick Kane.
Too much of the fan response to this story has been nauseating, with several shameless attempts to slut-shame the alleged victim. "Innocent until proven guilty" has been a refrain frequently repeated on Twitter. It's stunning to see how many people who are completely willing to give the former Conn Smythe winner a complete pass will waste no time in suggesting every possible ulterior motive of the alleged victim.
The whole saga has certainly dampened my enthusiasm going into this new season. Another championship banner will be raised at the United Center tonight, although I and many other Chicagoans will probably be tuning in to TBS to watch the Cubs instead.
I'm not assuming Patrick Kane is guilty here, but it seems reasonable to believe that the team would have been better served by having him stay away for the preseason out of respect to the criminal case. Instead, Kane appeared at camp and with the team in multiple other functions, always greeted with enthusiastic cheers. Something about this just makes me feel very icky.
I've spent too much time criticizing the fans of other teams who do not hesitate to welcome back players accused of misconduct (with some of the more high-profile cases having admittedly more evidence), so it's unusual for me to now wonder how I should respond when Kane scores his first goal of the regular season. What if he pots another series-clincher in the playoffs?
I do not know how much of this NHL season I will spend pondering these kinds of questions. The point is that I no longer have anywhere near the same level of adoration for No. 88 that I once had. After his cabbie-punching incident, his alleged girl-choking incident, and now this, I feel like every cheer for the guy is an unacceptable and uncomfortable endorsement.
So this will be an interesting year. Again, a year after I watched my favorite team do exactly what you cheer for your team all year to accomplish.
I'm happy that posting these predictions will knock my original season picks for the MLB season off the front page of this blog, as this year really bolsters that argument that I shouldn't bother trying to guess what teams will finish where for any sports. I don't know how this year's ineptitude compares to years past, but we'll just say this season was fucking awful.
For those keeping track at home, I got a mere two of the six division winners correct. Three for 10 on playoff teams and only seven of the 30 teams in their correct spots in the standings. Both predicted World Series participants failed to qualify.
So needless to say, you should probably take everything I say this postseason with enormous grain of salt. If you're going to use my predictions to put money down on a team, you might be better-served going with the opposite of everything I say.
If nothing else, we'll see a new champion being crowned this year. I guess it's mildly concerning for MLB that the top seeds in each league are teams from Missouri, but—with a few exceptions—I can't really see many of these teams driving big TV ratings.
I've long held that I despise the single-game Wild Card playoff idea (really loved what Cubs announcer Len Kasper suggested recently with a best-of-three using a doubleheader followed by a Game 3 if necessary), but this year is particularly frustrating because one of the top three teams in terms of regular season records is going to be eliminated by Thursday morning. After one game.
For now, we deal with the system that we have been given and hope for the best. And hopefully that includes some really riveting baseball. Because of the seeming openness of the field, I'm fairly optimistic.
After some three months off from this blog, I guess we've arrived at the time of year where I'll have to crank out a bunch of predictions over the next two months. As usual, I'm sitting here saying that I should just stop this beginning-of-the-season nonsense where I only get a handful of picks right.
But of course, last year with my football predictions I was right about my Super Bowl winner. I nailed three of the four Championship game participants. And hey, six out of eight division winners ain't bad either.
So seeing as last year I was committed to picking against the Denver team that so many people were going with, I'm feeling something similar this year after every one of the roughly 50 predictions I first saw all have a Packers-Colts Super Bowl. When something is this widely picked, it's almost certainly going to be wrong.
All of that said, I still have no idea who I actually will be picking as I type this. I can say that I already hate it because I know there's going to be at least a few out-of-nowhere surprise teams this year that I'm probably going to be too chickenshit to pick.
After a busy (by this site's standards in recent years, at least) couple months, this will presumably be my last post for a couple more months. Who knows, maybe I'll finally feel compelled to write about something other than sports predictions.
As we prepare for the last basketball series of the year, we're getting the Finals that pretty everybody expected when the playoffs began. That was kind of implied in the subtitle to my picks for the last round. I've gone 12-2 this year in the playoffs, indicative not so much of my prognosticating prowess as just how much these series have played out exactly as expected.
There's been relatively little in the way of surprises this year, and the only series that went seven games both involved the Clippers. Both conference finals were over almost as soon as they started. While there's some muffled expectations of hope for these Finals, I'm not really going to hold my breath.
In fairness, we are probably getting the two teams that are fair representatives of the best clubs in their respective conferences. That said, in a rather injury-plagued playoffs (by NBA standards, at least), the Finals is probably not the must-see appointment TV it would be had both teams been fully healthy.
I will not be the least bit surprised if the NBA Finals starting one night after the first game of the Stanley Cup Final gets decided before the NHL season officially ends.
It took a little bit longer than I had both series going, but we still ended up with the two teams I was expecting. Somewhat remarkable to get the full seven games in both conference finals, but even more remarkable when the road teams win both of them. Whatever. I'll take it.
And I'll take this Final too. One that's extremely likely if not sure to be fast-paced, awe-inspiring displays of skill on the ice. Part of me expects more contests like the first and final three games of that 2010 Stanley Cup Final, except that this Tampa club is significantly more talented than that Philadelphia squad.
That belief is not to write off the two men who will presumably be starting in between the pipes in this series, Ben Bishop and Corey Crawford. Both those goaltenders have had their moments throughout these playoffs, but there's only so much either can do. With Crow in particular, he gave up goals in the last series against Anaheim, but I really can't remember any off the top of my head that we're on him or the result of some brain farts. The Ducks scored largely off deflections or screens that were impossible to stop. I expect similar scoring in this series.
Sure, the Bolts aren't going to deliver the ratings for NBC that the network would have garnered with the Rangers, but the product is probably going to be a lot better. Anyway, knowing who I'm a fan of and the team I haven't picked against since 2009, I guess the only question is how long I see this series going.
Alas, I am perfect no more. I only got half my pricks right in the last round, bringing my total in the playoffs to 10-2 with three series having the correct number of games.
The last round was somewhat painful on two levels. One is obviously the Bulls doing what I fully expected them to do: get eliminated in six games. Still, this was perhaps the best chance that team's ever going to have, what with Kevin Love out for the Cavs and Kyrie Irving ailing. Now Chicago will probably have to extend a max deal to Jimmy Butler and be locked into the league's most expensive backcourt that prevents the team form making any more meaningful additions. My hopes for the future are not very high, and the effort displayed in the Game 6 elimination was especially revolting.
The biggest surprise in the last round had to be the evening I went to bed thinking the same Clippers team I picked at the beginning of the year to win the title were on their way to the conference finals when I awoke to learn this. And then yesterday their collapse became complete.
The Atlanta Hawks moving on was also technically a surprise since I picked the Wizards, but that ouster of Washington was not totally unexpected. I guess I can't complain too much since we'll be getting a champion this year that we haven't seen in at least two decades (it would have been more than three had the Clips hung on).
