Week 15 Picks

For the record, I finished in 13th place last week (out of 22). My lead over the fellow in third place is down to three points, so I need to stay the pace these final three weeks.

I still hammered out my numbers according to the formula but didn't strictly adhere to it this week. A few games got shuffled around and I was tempted to pick a few games the other way, but ultimately the changes were pretty modest.

I gave the benefit of the doubt to most teams still vying for the playoffs, but I assume that this week is going to be a backbreaker for a few teams should they fail.

16 points
Indianapolis Colts (9-4) over Detroit Lions (0-13)
+66/-3 : +214/228/-14 : -11/+148

The Colts are rolling and the Lions are the Lions.

15 points
Washington Redskins (7-6) over Cincinnati Bengals (1-11-1)
+18/+21 : +109/107/+2 : -19/+91

The Skins need a lot of things to happen for them to still have a chance at the playoffs, but they can't ask for much more than a trip to Cincy to help.

14 points
New England Patriots (8-5) over Oakland Raiders (3-10)
+22/+4 : +66/66/0 : -4/+44

I bumped the Pats up a few notches because I don't see them blowing their division chances against a team like Oakland.

13 points
Tennessee Titans (12-1) over Houston Texans (6-7)
+66/-19 : +113/101/+12 : +31/+47

Tennessee's clinched their division, but home-field's still in play and the two they've got after this aren't gimmes.

12 points
Miami Dolphins (8-5) over San Francisco 49ers (5-8)
+29/-5 : +71/66/+5 : +10/+42

I'm admittedly edgy, and I don't know if it's more because I'm coming to give the Niners a little more credit or because these are still the Dolphins we're talking about.

But the game's in Miami and the Fins have just as much right to call themselves a first-place team as anybody from New England or New York.

11 points
Philadelphia Eagles (7-5-1) over Cleveland Browns (4-9)
+23/+10 : +67/62/+5 : -5/+44

While I've become a little sour about Philly, they've put together a few convincing victories and don't seem to want to let the season go quietly.

10 points
San Diego Chargers (5-8) over Kansas City Chiefs (2-11)
+10/+24 : +66/57/+9 : -15/+56

It's been hard to invest too much hope in the Chargers this year, but the way in which they embarrassed Oakland doesn't strike me as being all that different from what to expect when they play the Chiefs.

9 points
Carolina Panthers (10-3) over Denver Broncos (8-5)
+54/-7 : +35/45/-10 : -3/-19

Kinda' nuts to put nine points on the Denver game two weeks in a row, but Carolina needs this win more while the Broncos are enjoying a three-game cushion atop the AFC West.

8 points
New York Jets (8-5) over Buffalo Bills (6-7)
+21/-12 : +13/26/-13 : -1/-8

The Jets desperately need a win and get the basement-dwelling division rival on their home field.

7 points
Seattle Seahawks (2-11) over St. Louis Rams (2-11)
-3/+67 : +104/37/+67 : 0/+107

Yuck. Two teams grateful to win a third game. Seattle's given a couple teams a scare in recent weeks, so they seem more likely to come out on top.

6 points
New York Giants (11-2) over Dallas Cowboys (8-5)
+113/-3 : +120/97/+23 : +26/+7

By the numbers, it should have been the 13-pointer (one notch down from where the Giants have been the past few weeks). But there's no denying that Dallas is at home and needs this game to stay alive.

Still, New York hasn't locked up home-field yet and would love to help ensure they don't have to run into the Cowboys one more time in January.

5 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) over Baltimore Ravens (9-4)
+64/-8 : +73/26/+47 : +55/+9

It should be a great game to watch and I just can't bring myself to go against Pittsburgh when I'm feeling like they're going to end up in the Super Bowl.

4 points
Green Bay Packers (5-8) over Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9)
+3/+15 : +16/19/-3 : -18/+13

Totally not thrilled with either team.

3 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-4) over Atlanta Falcons (8-5)
+53/+14 : +38/16/+22 : +8/-15

I'm still thinking Atlanta finds a way in to the playoffs, but I'm also thinking (with more certainty) that Tampa gets in much more comfortably.

2 points
Chicago Bears (7-6) over New Orleans Saints (7-6)
+10/+11 : +23/6/+29: +18/+13

The numbers barely point to the Saints, but I can't go against the Bears on a prime time Thursday night game in Chicago.

1 point
Minnesota Vikings (8-5) over Arizona Cardinals (8-5)
+47/+17 : +68/5/+63 : +46/+21

I really couldn't be happy or comfortable with this pick being any higher.