Week 14 Picks

Well, not too much needs to be said to justify how I went about the picks this week, what with last week's FIRST PLACE finish and all. (Clearly, I'm not all that affected by it.)

Oh sure, I've got a few disagreements we'll examine individually, but I did the math and made sure to get my picks in right away—before I could think about it and change them. Here's how the numbers came out:

16 points
Minnesota Vikings (7-5) over Detroit Lions (0-12)
+31/+17 : +163/157/+6 : -11/+132

There's a clear temptation to pick Detroit because many people can't fathom a team really losing every single one of their 16 games. And seeing as the last time the Lions played the Vikings, Minnesota only won by two points ... and they needed a little bit of controversy just to make that happen.

Still, do you ever really have to justify making the team playing Detroit your best bet?

15 points
Indianapolis Colts (8-4) over Cincinnati Bengals (1-10-1)
+51/-3 : +127/149/-22 : -19/+76

Indy has won five in a row, although none of those victories has been by as much as a touchdown. These next two lightweights (Detroit comes into town next week) on the schedule should—and to some extent, need to—be convincing wins.

14 points
New York Giants (11-1) over Philadelphia Eagles (6-5-1)
+127/-3 : +151/131/+20 : +23/+24

I'm still waiting for a week when I really think somebody can beat the Giants. Much like last week's game with the Redskins, the prospect of Philly winning doesn't sound all that far-fetched, but obviously I wouldn't bet on it.

13 points
Tennessee Titans (11-1) over Cleveland Browns (4-8)
+53/-19 : +84/108/-24 : -5/+31

The Titans put up 292 yards on the ground against the hapless Lions. I imagine that the 26th-ranked rush defense of Cleveland may be able to limit that stat to something in the lower 200s.

12 points
Arizona Cardinals (7-5) over St. Louis Rams (2-10)
+34/+21 : +129/108/+21 : 0/+95

I still have a hard time trusting the Cards, but an even harder time, apparently, picking the Rams—the only team left that I have not picked to win all year.

11 points
New York Jets (8-4) over San Francisco 49ers (4-8)
+32/-12 : +85/87/-2 : +10/+53

I don't foresee the Jets playing as abysmal an offensive scheme as the Bills threw at the Niners last week.

10 points
New England Patriots (7-5) over Seattle Seahawks (2-10)
+12/+4 : +69/68/+1 : -3/+57

Third consecutive week I've put 10 against Seattle.

9 points
Denver Broncos (7-5) over Kansas City Chiefs (2-10)
-12/-19 : +28/55/-27 : -15/+47

I heard Peter King say the other night on Dan Patrick's show how Denver could be a dangerous team to play in January, and I know what he means. But for these last four weeks—with hardly a challenger in the AFC West for the division crown—I'm just worrying which Bronco team will be playing: the solid crew we saw in the first three games and last week in New York, or the sleepwalking turds that lost to this same Kansas City bunch in Week Four.

8 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) over Dallas Cowboys (8-4)
+56/-8 : +55/37/+18 : +26/-1

Undoubtedly the biggest game on Sunday (scroll down to my two-point game if you want to see what I think the biggest game of the week is), and if the season ended today, I'd be saying the Steelers are the team going to the Super Bowl (as underdogs to the Giants, of course).

7 points
Baltimore Ravens (8-4) over Washington Redskins (7-5)
+48/+9 : +62/35/+27 : +18/+14

It just feels like two teams headed in different directions, although I'm not thrilled about having so many points riding on a Sunday night game.

6 points
Atlanta Falcons (8-4) over New Orleans Saints (6-6)
+14/-15 : +33/30/-3 : +18/+19

I smell a shootout.

5 points
San Diego Chargers (4-8) over Oakland Raiders (3-9)
+5/+24 : +44/24/+20 : -4/+39

Ugh. No complaints from me if this game's not on TV.

4 points
Chicago Bears (6-6) over Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8)
+6/+11 : +15/22/-7 : -18/+9

Every pick of the Bears is made with a little bit of skepticism. Matters are not helped any by the fact they'll be playing the usually unreliable Jags, although Jacksonville has been a safer bet as a loser.

3 points
Miami Dolphins (7-5) over Buffalo Bills (6-6)
+26/-5 : +15/21/-6 : -1/-11

Location, location, location.

2 points
Carolina Panthers (9-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)
+52/-7 : +64/18/+46: +53/+12

Intangibles, plain and simple: Carolina wants revenge for last time, they're at home (on a Monday night, no less) and considering the remaining schedule comparisons, they simply need this win more than the Bucs.

1 point
Green Bay Packers (5-7) over Houston Texans (5-7)
+4/+15 : +52/6/+46 : +31/+48

There's still signs of life in Green Bay.