Week 16 Picks

With only two weeks to go, I'd prefer a big week this week so I don't have to sweat too much for the season finale. That, of course, would require substantial help from a number of people, but for the time being, here's the sixteen teams I'm hoping get all the good breaks this weekend:

16 points
Miami Dolphins (9-5) over Kansas City Chiefs (2-12)
+41/-5 : +107/127/-20 : -15/+66

There's something I never thought I'd see: 16 points on the Miami Dolphins. But I've been saying in recent weeks that this is a team that gets into the playoffs. Probably doesn't go very far, but still gets into the playoffs. They're still very much alive in their division race and games like this are expected to be easy wins.

And Kansas City? Well, last week was positively brutal enough to trigger the resignation of their GM:

Kansas City’s complete collapse in the final minutes of its 22-21 home loss to San Diego was the kind of soul-stealing stunner that leaves even the most hopeful players and coaches wondering whether a young team can come back from such a fall. The Chargers scored two touchdowns in the game’s final 73 seconds to complete a rally from a 21-3 third-quarter deficit.

15 points
Indianapolis Colts (10-4) over Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9)
+82/-3 : +95/116/-21 : -18/+13

You do realize the last time the Colts lost was in October, right? That was back when there was still a realistic chance that John McCain could be the next president. That's how long ago it was. Since then, Indy's won seven straight and doesn't deserve to be written off anybody's list when the playoffs start.

14 points
New York Jets (9-5) over Seattle Seahawks (3-11)
+29/-12 : +96/104/-8 : +4/+67

Nobody in the AFC East can afford to lose this weekend, and while the Jets didn't get as soft of a team as the Dolphins did, Seattle doesn't offer many worries.

13 points
San Francisco 49ers (5-9) over St. Louis Rams (2-12)
+10/+54 : +124/70/+54 : 0/+114

The way the Rams lost last week resembles many of the doubts I have for Kansas City at this point in the year. Right now, a win seems to be more important to the 49ers, even if neither team is going to the playoffs.

12 points
Houston Texans (7-7) over Oakland Raiders (3-11)
+31/+34 : +89/59/+30 : -4/+58

After knocking off Tennessee, you have to believe the Texans could be in danger of getting caught off-guard in the Black Hole. But I'm guessing that a very good opportunity to lock in at least a .500 finish before the season's end is something Houston won't let slip away.

11 points
Philadelphia Eagles (8-5-1) over Washington Redskins (7-7)
+34/+10 : +55/42/+13 : +3/+21

OK, that's six straight road teams I put in the six highest spots, which in hindsight, is pretty insane. But the Eagles haven't mathematically been eliminated yet and should still be playing with confidence two weeks after upsetting the Giants in New York.

10 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5) over San Diego Chargers (6-8)
+50/+14 : +74/40/+34 : +20/+24

The Chargers used up their miracle in K.C. last week, of all places. Now they're going into a place in Florida where the team hasn't lost all season and the playoffs are still on the line.

9 points
New England Patriots (9-5) over Arizona Cardinals (8-6)
+36/+4 : +58/8/+50 : +46/+22

If Arizona got embarrassed by the Vikes, it ain't gonna' be much prettier against the Pats.

8 points
Cleveland Browns (4-10) over Cincinnati Bengals (2-11-1)
-5/+55 : +71/35/+36 : -19/+76

Ugh. It's in Cleveland and maybe the whole "Battle of Ohio" thing means something to the Browns.

7 points
Chicago Bears (8-6) over Green Bay Packers (5-9)
+12/+11 : +27/17/+10 : -1/+15

As Al Hoffman put it:

Bear down, Chicago Bears, make every play clear the way to victory;
Bear down, Chicago Bears, put up a fight with a might so fearlessly.
We'll never forget the way you thrilled the nation with your T-formation.
Bear down, Chicago Bears, and let them know why you're wearing the crown.
You're the pride and joy of Illinois, Chicago Bears, bear down.

6 points
Baltimore Ravens (9-5) over Dallas Cowboys (9-5)
+55/+14 : +56/16/+40 : +26/+1

Second straight week I've put six against Dallas, and this is probably a less dangerous opponent. But the Ravens aren't out of the playoff picture yet either and are probably still convinced that the Steelers never really got that ball to break the plane. ("Join the club," I'm sure, is the thought of many a Seahawk fan still hanging on to Super Bowl XL memories.)

5 points
Denver Broncos (8-6) over Buffalo Bills (6-8)
-3/-10 : -3/8/-11 : -1/0

There you go, folks: two negative totals for the forecasted outcomes. You don't see that every week (thankfully). Sure, I could see the Bills winning this one and would actually love Denver having to go in to San Diego next week with the division on the line, but man, nothing seems to have been going Buffalo's way in recent weeks.

4 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) over Tennessee Titans (12-2)
+69/-8 : +50/5/+45 : +53/-19

I think the Steelers' D is good great fucking awesome enough to win what should be a pretty tough road game.

3 points
Atlanta Falcons (9-5) over Minnesota Vikings (9-5)
+8/-18 : +25/5/+30 : +48/+17

Atlanta just keeps exceeding expectations, and should probably squeak by the Vikings to make next week's trip to St. Louis a little more relaxed.

2 points
Carolina Panthers (11-3) over New York Giants (11-3)
+63/-7 : +60/40/+100: +107/-3

About as low as I'd been hoping to go for the Sunday night game.

1 point
Detroit Lions (8-5) over New Orleans Saints (8-5)
+47/+17 : +68/5/+63 : +46/+21

Pickings are ripest in a while for Detroit: This is the Saints final road game of the year, and they lost six of the other seven they already played.