Week 17 Picks

I'm really rather speechless that this is the final week of what has been a pretty enjoyable season. As I said earlier, there's eight points separating me, in second place, from the fellow in fourth. I'm trying to be optimistic that at least I'm not playing catch-up in the final week, but a lead that small can certainly be made up in a single weekend. That would figure to by my luck, so I had to crunch my numbers first before I did anything this weekend.

I went back and looked at last week's numbers and realized that had I gone with the numbers as they originally said to go, I would have earned 80 points as opposed to the 69 I got instead.

So, when only one game came up with a different winner than I would have predicted, I changed that game and that game only and moved it to the bottom of my sheet. The rest I left as is, although I'm already groaning about how confident I really feel about some of what's about to follow.

But then I remembered that the one week I ended up in first place was the week I didn't make any changes. And I'm pinning my final hopes on my little formula that got me back into this race and hopefully makes enough impact this week to push me into first (which isn't real likely):

16 points
Atlanta Falcons (10-5) over St. Louis Rams (2-13)
+11/-18 : +138/156/-18 : 0/+127

Congratulations to the fine team in St. Louis for going the entire season without compelling me to pick them even one time this year. Well done.

15 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) over Cleveland Browns (4-11)
+65/-8 : +120/141/-21 : -13/+55

I won't be surprised at all if Cleveland ends up giving Pittsburgh a scare, but the Steelers really need to get one more "W" after last week's loss to the now top-seeded Titans.

14 points
Baltimore Ravens (10-5) over Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10)
+61/+14 : +85/89/-4 : -18/+24

Third straight home team, which inspires a considerable bit more ease than last week, when I had six road teams highest on my list.

13 points
New York Giants (12-3) over Minnesota Vikings (9-6)
+107/-5 : +127/84/+43 : +48/+20

I've been saying this for a couple weeks now and while it initially seems like a game ripe for low bets across the board, I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is—metaphorically speaking, of course.

12 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-6) over Oakland Raiders (4-11)
+40/+14 : +86/76/+10 : -4/+46

Last week had to be a fluke. And there's no way John Gruden misses the playoffs because of a loss to his former employer. Not in Tampa, at least.

11 points
Arizona Cardinals (8-7) over Seattle Seahawks (4-11)
+46/+31 : +99/64/+35 : +4/+46

Yes, I realize I've been a huge critic of Arizona for most of the year, so having them so high in the final week against the division rival that just knocked off the Jets is a bit discomforting. But the Cardinals have just gotten their asses kicked for two straight weeks and absolutely must have this game if they're going to have even a prayer of competing once the playoffs begin.

10 points
Carolina Panthers (11-4) over New Orleans Saints (8-7)
+61/-7 : +75/64/+11 : +18/+14

If the Panthers had the division sewn up like I had thought they did, I might have placed this lower or even gone the other way. But the game's huge for Carolina because a loss here very well equates to another win they'll need to get without the week off they'd been expecting.

9 points
New England Patriots (10-5) over Buffalo Bills (7-8)
+45/+4 : +40/37/+3 : -1/-5

Bills are always a nuisance at home, but the Pats know they've still realistically got a very good shot at winning the division. However ...

8 points
Miami Dolphins (10-5) over New York Jets (9-6)
+57/-5 : +45/35/+10 : +15/-12

... I've been saying the Dolphins would come in and steal this game for a few weeks now.

I'm not changing my mind. Hell, the numbers support it.

7 points
Chicago Bears (8-6) over Green Bay Packers (5-9)
+19/+11 : +53/24/+29 : +18/+34

Second straight week in the seven spot for the Bears, who delivered last week—although hardly in a comforting fashion.

6 points
Indianapolis Colts (11-4) over Tennessee Titans (13-2)
+97/-3 : +74/24/+50 : +53/-23

The Colts seem to have gotten acquainted in their new home after they dropped the first two opening the new stadium. Since then, they're 5-0 at home and they've won eight in a row overall. A win this week against top-seeded Tennessee and they'll be among the favorites to win it all.

5 points
Washington Redskins (8-7) over San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
+3/+10 : +57/24/+33 : +23/+54

Ugh ... two teams with nothing to really play for. Redskins have a way of winning games they had no business showing up for.

4 points
Cincinnati Bengals (3-11-1) over Kansas City Chiefs (2-13)
-19/+68 : +63/10/+53 : -15/+82

And what are you foreseeing as the paid attendance for this imminent classic?

Two thousand?

Two hundred?

Two?

3 points
Dallas Cowboys (9-6) over Philadelphia Eagles (8-6-1)
+26/+7 : +36/6/+30 : +23/+10

And you have to believe the NFL was also counting on Dallas to go far in the playoffs this season. I still see them getting in, one way or another.

2 points
San Diego Chargers (7-8) over Denver Broncos (8-7)
+20/+14 : +10/4/+6 : -8/-10

It's just too appropriate.

1 point
Detroit Lions (0-15) over Green Bay Packers (5-10)
-12/+164 : +10/153/+163 : -1/+22

Play it one last time, MoTown.