Saturday, October 31, 2009

Week Eight Picks

My picks last week only got me 68 points, but I'm willing to attribute a lot of that to picking two upsets that didn't pan out. The safer sets of picks last week all would've earned higher, whether I went with Brian Burke's probabilities (which were an amazing 12-1 and would've been good for 83 points) or my own set of numbers (which were 9-4, but would've earned 74 points). I should also note the picks from users at both ESPN and Yahoo so far this year are scoring better than myself and most of the experts and even the Accuscore simulation at ESPN is tied with Chris Mortensen.

My own set of Power Rankings-derived numbers (explanation here) this week doesn't give me too many complaints at first glance. Ties, if I haven't mentioned (and I probably haven't), are broken by which team has the higher individual winning scenario. A Dallas win scenario this week, for instance, is +62 while a Jacksonville win scenario is only +26:
  • 13—Bears over Browns (75)
  • 12—Cowboys over Seahawks (50)
  • 11—Jags over Titans (50)
  • 10—Colts over Niners (47)
  • 9—Cards over Panthers (38)
  • 8—Bolts over Raiders (37)
  • 7 —Lions over Rams (27)
  • 6—Giants over Eagles (26)
  • 5—Vikes over Packers (25)
  • 4—Jets over Fins (22)
  • 3—Texans over Bills (19)
  • 2—Saints over Falcons (15)
  • 1—Broncos over Ravens (10)
As always, not a terrible sheet of selections, although you know how I feel about betting that high on Jacksonville.

This week's games I think are going to hinge on that seven-point spot I've had nothing but problems with so far this season. I think the top six bets are all going to be fairly common among those in the pool, but from seven on down will be where the winner is really determined—you know if we don't get an upset. According to the line, I believe I've only got three this week:

13 points
San Diego Chargers (3-3) over Oakland Raiders (2-5)
+52/+11 : +52/37/+15 : +4/+31

The Bolts need to get back in top form if they're going to get into the playoffs, seeing as Denver still hasn't shown any signs of conceding the AFC West.

12 points
Chicago Bears (3-3) over Cleveland Browns (1-6)
+14/-9 : +66/75/-9 : 0/+52

It was mentioned on the radio this week that this is essentially a playoff game for the Bears because if they lose, the season would be over to the fans. Jay Cutler should be putting up some nice numbers this weekend.

11 points
Indianapolis Colts (6-0) over San Francisco 49ers (3-3)
+53/0 : +58/47/+11 : +11/+5

The Niners obviously aren't the pushover that the Rams were last week, but the Colts are still rolling and probably won't slow down until they've locked up home-field throughout the playoffs.

10 points
New Orleans Saints (6-0) over Atlanta Falcons (4-2)
+38/-2 : +29/15/+14 : +16/+9

Going big on a Monday always worries me a little bit, but the atmosphere in the Superdome should be electric for the rival Falcons and the opportunity to open up a three-game lead in the NFC South.

9 points
Dallas Cowboys
(4-2) over Seattle Seahawks (2-4)
+40/+4 : +62/50/+12 : +8/+22

Seattle's banged-up defense should be in for a long day against Big D's solid running game and its newfound scoring connection between Tony Romo and Miles Austin.

8 points
Arizona Cardinals (4-2) over Carolina Panthers (2-4)
-2/-20 : +29/38/-9 : +11/+31

It begrudges me to admit that it's looking increasingly more likely that those who picked the defending NFC Champs to repeat as division winners may end up being right after all. Arizona's top-ranked rushing defense is going to force Jake Delhomme to step up and perform if he wants retribution for last year's playoff debacle.

7 points
Houston Texans (4-3) over Buffalo Bills (3-4)
-5/-15 : +7/19/-12 : +3/+12

OK, like I said, this spot's a huge concern and it was Buffalo that screwed me here last week as well. But I'll tempt fate that Matt Schaub and Houston's Top 10 offense ends the Bills' short-lived winning streak.

6 points
Detroit Lions (1-5) over St. Louis Rams (0-7)
0/+56 : +83/27/+56 : 0/+83

Alas, I finally had to pick one of them this season.

5 points
New York Giants
(5-2) over Philadelphia Eagles (4-2)
+44/0 : +49/26/+23 : +23/+5

The Eagles are at home and the Giants have let me down back-to-back weeks already, but I like New York to respond in a game with some pretty high stakes, as winning this could very well be a difference between first and third place in the NFC East.

4 points
Green Bay Packers (4-2) over Minnesota Vikings (6-1)
+20/+4 : +20/25/+45 : +41/0

If nothing else, I'm really just looking forward to getting the hype over with and actually focusing on the rest of the season for these teams.

3 points
New York Jets (4-3) over Miami Dolphin
s (2-4
)
-3/-10 : +13/22/-9 : +1/+16

Yes, it was very tempting to pick the same upset that I have such fond memories of from earlier this season—especially with the injuries sustained by the Jets defense that got run all over last time—but ultimately I think that last meeting is still fresh in the minds of enough New York players and coaches to keep them inspired to return the favor in front of their home crowd.

2 points
Denver Broncos (6-0) over Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
+15/-10 : +15/10/+5 : +15/0

The Broncos defense looks to show Ray Lewis and the Ravens who the new badasses are in the NFL.

1 point
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) over Tennessee Titans (0-6)
+2/-3 : +26/50/-24 : -21/+24

The only way I could feel comfortable here was by knowing I put the least amount possible on it. Great success.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Week Seven Power Rankings

I'm hella swamped with work this weekend, so let's get right to it.

As you can see there to the right, I once again won in fantasy football—only really noted because I actually suggested playing Eli Manning to my sister and had she kept Matt Ryan in, she would have won. But as it turned out, a huge game from the Eagles defense put me over the top and I had a nice little ending to the weekend for whatever fantasy football's worth—which must be something, since I also signed up for a fantasy basketball league and two hockey leagues this week (Thank you, "Bert"). I tell myself that it will give me a reason to write about the sports more during the year since all essentially nothing gets written here about either until the playoffs start.

Anyway, my picks last weekend were another story. The Miami Dolphins flirted briefly with another upset that would have led to surefire victory for me on all fronts (or so I thought ...), but instead it appears I went to the well once too many for upsets from the Fins and I finished at 8-5 for a weak 68 points. That was good for eighth place (out of 15) and keeps me in second for the year (out of 16) with 616 points, 13 behind the leader.

The big winner last week was Adam Schefter from the ESPN experts with an 11-2 score, although I should note that Brian Burke's probabilities which I mentioned before my picks last week and don't include because they only began running in Week Four were 12-1 last weekend.

Michael Silver and Charles Robinson from Yahoo, as well as Seth Wickersham went 10-3. The bro-in-law, Eric Allen, Mike Golic, and Merrill Hoge all went 9-4. Ron Jaworski was the only person to go 8-4 because he's a pud. And once again, my 8-5 mark shares last place with the scores from Chris Mortensen and CBS Sports' Pete Prisco, although Mark Schlereth and Jason Cole also joined us in the cellar last weekend.

Now, on the year (numbers in parentheses indicating where the dude stood in the rankings last week):

1. (3) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 74-29 (.718)
2. (3) Charles Robinson, Yahoo: 73-30 (.709)
3. (1) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 72-31 (.699)
4. (2) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 67-29 (.698)
5. (3) YOURS TRULY: 71-32 (.689)
5. (6) Merril Hoge, ESPN: 71-32 (.689)
7. (6) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 70-33 (.680)
8. (8) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 69-34 (.670)
8. (8) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 69-34 (.670)
10. (8) LEV, crazy colored glasses: 68-35 (.660)
11. (11) Mike Golic, ESPN: 67-35 (.657)
12. (12) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 66-37 (.641)
13. (13) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 64-39 (.621)
13. (14) Eric Allen, ESPN: 64-39 (.621)

Now on to the numbers:

1. (1) ST. LOUIS RAMS
  • Last week: Lost to Indianapolis, 42-6 (+13)
  • Actual Record: 0-7
  • My predicted record: 0-7
  • My record at predicting their record: 7-0
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: +83
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +83
  • Link of the Week:
Rams-Lions could be one for the history books.

2. (2) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
  • Last week: Lost to New England, 35-7 (+12)
  • Actual Record: 0-7
  • My predicted record: 0-7
  • My record at predicting their record: 7-0
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: +77
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +77
  • Link of the Week:
Oops: A morning host in Tampa got suspended for reporting the Bucs might be for sale. Is anybody there upset that last week's Wembley visit counted as a home game?

3. (3) DETROIT LIONS
  • Last week: BYE
  • Actual Record: 1-5
  • My predicted record: 0-6
  • My record at predicting their record: 5-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: +64
  • Points taken from me with wins: -8
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +56
  • Link of the Week:
Not surprisingly, I guess, the Lions-Rams game wasn't popular enough a draw to avoid the local blackout. "I think there will only be a maximum of two more blackouts this season."

4. (8) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
  • Last week: Beat St. Louis, 42-6 (+13)
  • Actual Record: 6-0
  • My predicted record: 6-0
  • My record at predicting their record: 6-0
  • Points scored for me with wins: +53
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +53
  • Links of the Week:
Tom Brady thinks rather highly of Dwight Freeney.

5. (7) CLEVELAND BROWNS
  • Last week: Lost to Green Bay, 31-3 (+11)
  • Actual Record: 1-6
  • My predicted record: 0-7
  • My record at predicting their record: 6-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: +59
  • Points taken from me with wins: -7
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +52
  • Link of the Week:
You know things are rough in Cleveland when fans aren't just planning protests, but coaches are actually speaking out against the planned protest.

6. (6) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
  • Last week: Lost to San Diego, 37-7 (-2)
  • Actual Record: 1-6
  • My predicted record: 1-6
  • My record at predicting their record: 5-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: +53
  • Points taken from me with wins: -5
  • Points taken from me with losses: -2
  • Plus/Minus: +46
  • Link of the Week:
Oh, it all makes sense now: Todd Haley, the only NFL coach that never actually played football.

7. (4) NEW YORK GIANTS
  • Last week: Lost to Arizona, 24-17 (-10)
  • Actual Record: 5-2
  • My predicted record: 7-0
  • My record at predicting their record: 5-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +55
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -11
  • Plus/Minus: +44
  • Link of the Week:
Meet Kevin Boss.

7. (9) DALLAS COWBOYS
  • Last week: Beat Atlanta, 37-21 (+5)
  • Actual Record: 4-2
  • My predicted record: 4-2
  • My record at predicting their record: 6-0
  • Points scored for me with wins: +40
  • Points scored for me with losses: +4
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +44
  • Link of the Week:
Looks like I know now exactly when I'll be stepping outside for a while on Thanksgiving.

9. (5) CAROLINA PANTHERS
  • Last week: Lost to Buffalo, 20-9 (-7)
  • Actual Record: 2-4
  • My predicted record: 3-3
  • My record at predicting their record: 5-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: +18
  • Points scored for me with losses: +31
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -7
  • Plus/Minus: +42
  • Link of the Week:
Seriously John Fox, WTF?

10. (10) MINNESOTA VIKINGS
  • Last week: Beat Baltimore, 33-31 (+4)
  • Actual Record: 6-1
  • My predicted record: 5-2
  • My record at predicting their record: 6-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: +41
  • Points scored for me with losses: +4
  • Points taken from me with wins: -4
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +41
  • Link of the Week:
Oh my ...




11. (13) WASHINGTON REDSKINS
  • Last week: Lost to Philadelphia, 27-17 (+9)
  • Actual Record: 3-4
  • My predicted record: 5-2
  • My record at predicting their record: 5-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +34
  • Points scored for me with losses: +19
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -13
  • Plus/Minus: +40
  • Link of the Week:
Nothing can stop the Redskins now that they've ... banned signs?

12. (10) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  • Last week: Beat Miami, 46-34 (-1)
  • Actual Record: 6-0
  • My predicted record: 4-2
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +38
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: -2
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +36
  • Link of the Week:
Second straight week of making a comparison to the 2007 Patriots.

13. (16) OAKLAND RAIDERS
  • Last week: Lost to New York Jets, 38-0 (+8)
  • Actual Record: 2-5
  • My predicted record: 1-6
  • My record at predicting their record: 6-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: +4
  • Points scored for me with losses: +45
  • Points taken from me with wins: -14
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +35
  • Link of the Week:
Stage 5 for the Raiders.

14. (12) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
  • Last week: Beat Kansas City, 37-7 (-2)
  • Actual Record: 3-3
  • My predicted record: 2-4
  • My record at predicting their record: 5-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: +21
  • Points scored for me with losses: +13
  • Points taken from me with wins: -2
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +32
  • Link of the Week:
The Raiders haven't won in San Diego since their Super Bowl season of 2002.

14. (15) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
  • Last week: Beat Minnesota, 27-17 (+4)
  • Actual Record: 5-2
  • My predicted record: 7-0
  • My record at predicting their record: 5-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +44
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -12
  • Plus/Minus: +32
  • Link of the Week:
Those Steelers spend wisely.

16. (14) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
  • Last week: BYE
  • Actual Record: 2-4
  • My predicted record: 4-2
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +15
  • Points scored for me with losses: +22
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -7
  • Plus/Minus: +30
  • Link of the Week:
Seattle's injured reserve list has added a third name.

17. (19) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
  • Last week: Beat Washington, 27-17 (+9)
  • Actual Record: 4-2
  • My predicted record: 5-1
  • My record at predicting their record: 5-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: +37
  • Points scored for me with losses: +5
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -14
  • Plus/Minus: +28
  • Link of the Week:
Brian Westbrook is pretty iffy this week.

18. (21) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  • Last week: Beat Tampa Bay, 35-7 (+12)
  • Actual Record: 5-2
  • My predicted record: 6-1
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: +45
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: -3
  • Points taken from me with losses: -15
  • Plus/Minus: +27
  • Link of the Week:
Is parity dead or what?

19. (18) ATLANTA FALCONS
  • Last week: Lost to Dallas, 37-21 (+5)
  • Actual Record: 4-2
  • My predicted record: 3-3
  • My record at predicting their record: 5-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: +16
  • Points scored for me with losses: +12
  • Points taken from me with wins: -3
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +25
  • Links of the Week:
After the fast start, changes may be imminent.

20. (23) GREEN BAY PACKERS
  • Last week: Beat Cleveland, 31-3 (+11)
  • Actual Record: 4-2
  • My predicted record: 4-2
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +34
  • Points scored for me with losses: +5
  • Points taken from me with wins: -1
  • Points taken from me with losses: -14
  • Plus/Minus: +24
  • Link of the Week:
Somebody was bound to suggest it.

21. (20) MIAMI DOLPHINS
  • Last week: Lost to New Orleans, 46-34 (-1)
  • Actual Record: 2-4
  • My predicted record: 3-3
  • My record at predicting their record: 5-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: +2
  • Points scored for me with losses: +16
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -1
  • Plus/Minus: +17
  • Link of the Week:
Are those tight ends busy blocking or just not that good?

22. (24) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  • Last week: Lost to Houston, 24-21 (+6)
  • Actual Record: 3-3
  • My predicted record: 1-5
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +11
  • Points scored for me with losses: +13
  • Points taken from me with wins: -8
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +16
  • Link of the Week:
You always hope its the good week to be injured.

23. (17) BUFFALO BILLS
  • Last week: Beat Carolina, 20-9 (-7)
  • Actual Record: 3-4
  • My predicted record: 2-5
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: +10
  • Points scored for me with losses: +30
  • Points taken from me with wins: -18
  • Points taken from me with losses: -7
  • Plus/Minus: +15
  • Link of the Week:
Chris Kelsay is quietly on his way to a career season.

23. (21) BALTIMORE RAVENS
  • Last week: BYE
  • Actual Record: 3-3
  • My predicted record: 6-0
  • My record at predicting their record: 3-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: +30
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -15
  • Plus/Minus: +15
  • Link of the Week:
With Denver coming into town, who thought it would be the Ravens defense that's the bigger question mark?

25. (25) CHICAGO BEARS
  • Last week: Lost to Cincinnati, 45-10 (-3)
  • Actual Record: 3-3
  • My predicted record: 5-1
  • My record at predicting their record: 2-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: +21
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: -9
  • Points taken from me with losses: -7
  • Plus/Minus: +5
  • Link of the Week:
"Worst loss I've covered"

25. (26) DENVER BRONCOS
  • Last week: BYE
  • Actual Record: 6-0
  • My predicted record: 4-2
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +15
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: -10
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +5
  • Link of the Week:
Who needs Ray Lewis when you've got Brian Dawkins?

27. (27) TENNESSEE TITANS
  • Last week: BYE
  • Actual Record: 0-6
  • My predicted record: 3-3
  • My record at predicting their record: 3-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: +24
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -21
  • Plus/Minus: +3
  • Link of the Week:
Tennessee has lost eight straight ever since their little towel display.

28. (28) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
  • Last week: BYE
  • Actual Record: 3-3
  • My predicted record: 2-4
  • My record at predicting their record: 3-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: +8
  • Points scored for me with losses: +14
  • Points taken from me with wins: -17
  • Points taken from me with losses: -6
  • Plus/Minus: -1
  • Link of the Week:
I guess I forgot about the drama surrounding the last time Vince Young played against the Jags.

29. (30) NEW YORK JETS
  • Last week: Beat Oakland, 38-0 (+8)
  • Actual Record: 4-3
  • My predicted record: 2-5
  • My record at predicting their record: 3-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: +8
  • Points scored for me with losses: +7
  • Points taken from me with wins: -17
  • Points taken from me with losses: -11
  • Plus/Minus: -13
  • Link of the Week:
All this over a hot dog?

30. (31) HOUSTON TEXANS
  • Last week: Beat San Francisco, 24-21 (+6)
  • Actual Record: 4-3
  • My predicted record: 4-3
  • My record at predicting their record: 3-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: +10
  • Points scored for me with losses: +5
  • Points taken from me with wins: -20
  • Points taken from me with losses: -15
  • Plus/Minus: -20
  • Link of the Week:
Before you start talking playoffs in Houston, don't you think you ought to get that running game straightened out first?

31. (29) ARIZONA CARDINALS
  • Last week: Beat New York Giants, 24-17 (-10)
  • Actual Record: 4-2
  • My predicted record: 2-4
  • My record at predicting their record: 2-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: +5
  • Points scored for me with losses: +2
  • Points taken from me with wins: -22
  • Points taken from me with losses: -7
  • Plus/Minus: -22
  • Link of the Week:
Wow, Arizona just had it's 38th straight sellout. Unfortunately, the lack of a blackout means that fans in Phoenix will be just about the only people in the country not watching Brett's return to Green Bay.

32. (32) CINCINNATI BENGALS
  • Last week: Beat Chicago, 45-10 (-3)
  • Actual Record: 5-2
  • My predicted record: 3-4
  • My record at predicting their record: 1-6
  • Points scored for me with wins: +10
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: -28
  • Points taken from me with losses: -13
  • Plus/Minus: -31
  • Link of the Week:
Since Cincy's still the cellar-dweller this week, let's instead focus on Dan Wetzel's interesting piece talking about how that lack of parity has been killing Vegas sports books.

Those damned seven-pointers continue to be my achilles heel—although the one-pointers are just as bad:

16-point games: 3-0

15-point games: 3-0
14-point games: 4-2
13-point games: 6-1
12-point games: 7-0
11-point games: 5-2
10-point games: 5-2
9-point games: 6-1
8-point games: 5-2
7-point games: 2-5
6-point games: 4-3
5-point games: 5-2
4-point games: 5-2
3-point games: 3-4
2-point games: 6-1
1-point games: 2-5

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

World Series Prediction

Just as I noted, a number of ESPN experts only picked certain series and most of them (the ones who fared poorly in the Division Series, go figure) were either dropped or, in one unrelated circumstance, fired.

Anyway, the stage is set for quite possibly a very thrilling World Series. But before we get to my pick, here's where my picks rank in comparison to the experts from ESPN, Yahoo and CBS Sports who weren't chicken shit:

1. (1) Eric Neel, ESPN: 6-0 (2)
2. (3) Eric Mack, CBS Sports: 5-1 (1)
3. (2) Steve Henson, Yahoo: 4-2 (2)
3. (6) Gordon Edes, Yahoo: 4-2 (2)
5. (6) Buster Olney, ESPN: 4-2 (1)
5. (10) Scott Miller, CBS Sports: 4-2 (1)
7. (10) Tim Kurkjian, ESPN: 4-2 (0)
8. (6) Jeff Passan, Yahoo: 3-3 (2)
8. (6) YOURS TRULY: 3-3 (2)
10. (10) Adriane Rosen, CBS Sports: 3-3 (1)
11. (10) Tim Brown, Yahoo: 3-3 (0)
12. (15) Danny Knobler, CBS Sports: 2-4 (1)

From my end, I erred in the ALCS after getting both division series right and got the NLCS exactly right after missing both division series. So the World Series decides if I finish above or below .500 in playoff predictions this year and while I'm hoping for an epic seven-game series (which we haven't had in a number of years), I'm going to go out on a limb:





Philadelphia Phillies over New York Yankees in five games







I was guilty of assuming Philly's title defense would end in the first round, but they've made a believer of me yet. And after they excaped the dangerous best-of-five, I pretty much concluded nobody was going to beat them—seeing as Brad Lidge's reputation for blowing saves this year did not end up being the storyline, as I thought it might be.

Yes, I realize the Yankees are big and bad and a popular favorite, but one team CC Sabathia doesn't strike me as being unhittable against is Philadelphia. In case you forgot, the Phillies took two of three from New York at their new stadium earlier this year (including one against Sabathia), and last season when the ace was still in a Brewers uniform, basically the same team they have this year pounded him then too.

So while I'd very much like a lively, competitive, memorable World Series, I see no reason not to go with my logic in the NLCS: A split in New York and then Philly wins three straight at home to accentuate a convincing repeat while the Yankees, having won three World Championships in the 1990s, drop their third World Series of the decade.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

2009-10 NBA Predictions

Time for a quick break in the strictly NFL posting as I throw my NBA picks out there. Unlike last year, I'll actually take the time this year to add a few comments that I can later regret and hopefully work into my awful routine of predicting playoff series. It should be fun. Well, hopefully.

My hopes aren't as high for the Bulls as they are for the Blackhawks—or hell, even the Bears for that matter. So I'm already going into this season with basically no real games jumping out at me as "can't miss that one." Still, I know that come spring, I'll be wondering what I thought I'd be getting out of this NBA season. And seeing as the Lakers are entering this year as returning champs with arguably an improved roster—and keeping in mind how I feel about the fucking Lakers—well, my attitude can best be summed up as "ANYBODY BUT L.A."

The exception to that statement, of course, is the Clippers. I'd even be OK with that.

Last year's picks were hardly very expansive. I correctly called the Lakers to come out of the Western Conference, but instead of losing in the Finals like they should have if Dwight Howard didn't pull his best Shaquille O'Neal imitation by missing two critical free throws, well, you know how that turned out. Point is, Boston didn't represent the East, so I was wrong there. As for how my predicted conference standings panned out, I went 3/15 in the East and 1/15 in the West for exact finishes, although I got six of the eight playoff teams in the East and seven of the eight in the West which makes me sound like less of a dumbass than the previous statistic would have led you to believe.

That said, this year, I'm breaking down by division first:


EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic
Boston Celtics

Toronto Raptors

Philadelphia 76ers

New York Knicks

New Jersey Nets


Toughest call in this division has to be deciding between the Nets and the Knicks as to who's worse. Neither team seems to have any interest in this particular season, what with New York waiting to see if LeBron will fill that enormous hole they've got in their cap and New Jersey wondering if it's time to move to Brooklyn yet.

The Celtics are easily the class of the division, once again Sports Illustrated's pick to win it all, although I've got my concerns about how healthy this team can stay. Whatever ails them during the year won't prevent them from winning here and taking one of the top spots, but the question remains as to how well they'll all be when it matters most: the playoffs.

The Sixers and the Raptors should jockey for second, although I wouldn't expect either team to fnish much better than just over .500 and less than 50 wins. I'm giving the edge to the Raptors because the addition of Hedo Turkoglu along with Chris Bosh needing a big year as he heads into that free agent class you'll be hearing about, oh, only all year, helps Toronto get more wins than a Philly squad that certainly has some promising athleticism but also seems to be overly relying an Elton Brand who's clearly seen better days and a point guard position that's going to take time (and probably losses) to figure out.

Central
Cleveland Cavaliers

Chicago Bulls

Detroit Pistons

Indiana Pacers

Milwaukee Bucks

The Cavaliers have nothing to prove until the playoffs, so they'll probably be playfully bitch-slapping the rest of the division all year with an occasional off-night. It would take something pretty extraordinary for Cleveland not to run away with this one.

The Bulls made some believers with their opening round loss in the playoffs—as strange as that may sound. In my mind, they essentially saved Vinny Del Negro's job and Derrick Rose should be able to take a major step forward now that Ben Gordon isn't around anymore. No, I don't know who's going to make up those points Gordon gave you, per se, but more touches for a variety of guys should do wonders. Much will depend on how Vinny handles the team and juggles the minutes, but most of the youngsters have already shown improvement.

The Pistons are a team I'm more comfortable expecting less from since they're capped-out with the roster they have—and while they've got scoring potential, I'm not expecting to hear too many people talking about solid defense or a great bench in Detroit. And I'm certainly not buying into any ideas about Ben Wallace's return being anything very meaningful. There are still some quality ballers on the Pistons and there's no reason to believe they can't make the playoffs with about a .500 record.

The Indiana Pacers can look forward to sending Danny Granger to the All-Star Game, but not much else. The Milwaukee Bucks still have Michael Redd, but how much hope can you really muster for a team that got rid of their next three top scorers?

Southeast
Orlando Magic

Atlanta Hawks

Miami Heat

Washington Wizards

Charlotte Bobcats

Again, Orlando's the popular and easy choice to win the division. Still, it's perfectly possible that four teams from the Southeast make the playoffs.

Atlanta's just as good as they were last year, which is to say they still aren't great but should be better than most clubs. The Heat are among the teams likeliest to get an entirely new look next year, but Dwayne Wade should make his usual MVP bid in helping will the team to victories and Jermaine O'Neal should perform in a contract year. And the Wizards seem to have the pieces in place to give a lot of teams real problems, although I'm not as big a believer as some but who doesn't love Flip Saunders?

Oh, and let us not forget that they did bring basketball back to Charlotte at some point, although they'll be spending most of the season trying to find somebody to score there.


WESTERN CONFERENCE
Northwest
Denver Nuggets

Portland Trailblazers

Utah Jazz

Oklahoma City Thunder

Minnesota Timberwolves
 

Probably the toughest division winner to call is in the Northwest, but I'll opt to retain my spot aboard the Denver bandwagon—you know, after arriving late for not picking the team to make the playoffs last season. Or at least I'm more comfortable with the Nuggets resembling enough of the Cinderella story they had last year than I am comfortable with the divison's other contender, the Blazers, growing up in the span of one year. I seriously question how many games Greg Oden is able to start, although the addition of Andre Miller could be the move that makes me regret putting Portland at second.

Either way, both those teams are playoff-bound, as will be the Utah Jazz. And that's more a testament to Jerry Sloan than anything, because the Jazz are hardly any different than the team they had last year which is to say that they could likely improve upon last year's eighth seed if they stay healthy, but who's your shooters on this team?

Both the Thunder and the T-Wolves are going to be consistently labeled as "too young," but both teams should have their share of highlights during the year even if neither ends up winning many games.

Southwest
San Antonio Spurs

Dallas Mavericks

New Orleans Hornets

Houston Rockets

Memphis Grizzlies

I've listened to so many haters tell me the Spurs were "too old" for so long now that I guess it was only a matter of time before I started to adapt that logic as my own. As is so often the case this season, my primary concern comes with San Antonio's health. I believe Richard Jefferson will indeed be a nice fit for the Spurs, although I'm not sure he'll have as significant an impact as other new faces on other teams. Still, the Spurs should be the most likely to challenge L.A.'s run at home-court during the year.

The Mavs have the same aging concerns as their interstate rivals, but lack the bench to take the Southwest. They'll get into the playoffs and likely give their first-round opponent problems.

The charming playoff run the Hornets had a few years back now feels like ages ago and while the team made some nice moves to deepen their bench, there seems to be something lacking in the backcourt to help CP3 out. He'll probably be able to carry them into the playoffs, but not much farther beyond that.

The Rockets' chances have already been trashed by injuries before the season even tipped off, but Houston's so used to that, you're almost tempted to believe that a spirited effort from T-Mac could make them a playoff team. Almost tempted.

I'm willing to go on record that the Grizzlies will finish the year with the fewest assists of any team in the NBA. They may end up getting a high draft pick too.

Pacific
Los Angeles Lakers

Phoenix Suns

Los Angeles Clippers

Golden State Warriors

Sacramento Kings

I don't see how the Lakers don't run away with the division, let alone the top spot in the conference. There's nobody here to pose a threat, as I see it—and that includes Ron Artest. Perhaps the Hollywood environment will cause him to revert to some bad old habits, but I'm not counting on it. As it stands right now, the only thing stopping the Lakers will be themselves. I don't rule out a slow start for one second, but you know that a lengthy, double-digit type of winning streak or two is only a matter of time.

The lone team I nailed in their conference spot last year was Phoenix, just missing the playoffs. Without Shaq around to slow down the Suns anymore, I think Steve Nash and a very driven Amare Stoudemire push the pace and get Phoenix back into the playoffs.

The Clippers are becoming a boutique pick to grab one of the last spots in the West, but I think they'll end up having to wait until next year—although they'll actually stay in contention until the final month or so of the season.

Both the Warriors and the Kings could be competing for the cellar of the entire Western Conference, although I think Golden State has more talent (as well as more turmoil) and should finish better than Sacramento.


Opening Round Playoffs
#1 Cavaliers over #8 Raptors in 5 games

#2 Celtics over #7 Wizards in 5 games

#3 Magic over #6 Heat in 7 games

#5 Bulls over #4 Hawks in 6 games

#1 Lakers over #8 Hornets in 6 games

#2 Spurs over #7 Suns in 5 games

#3 Nuggets over #6 Jazz in 6 games

#5 Mavericks over #4 Trailblazers in 7 games

Conference Semifinals
#1 Cavaliers over #5 Bulls in 5 games

#2 Celtics over #3 Magic in 7 games

#1 Lakers over #5 Mavericks in 5 games

#2 Spurs over #3 Nuggets in 6 games

Conference Finals
#2 Celtics over #1 Cavaliers in 6 games

#1 Lakers over #2 Spurs in 7 games

NBA Finals
Los Angeles Lakers over Boston Celtics in 6 games