Week Seven Picks

I should confess that in addition to my own numbers I've determined using my own wagering from the season, I've also in recent weeks been giving some consideration to the probability projections determined by Brian Burke over at The New York Times N.F.L. Blog. I would post his prediction numbers as well, but I only appears he began doing the game probabilities in Week Four. I may mention him among the weekly performances that lead off my Power Rankings, but we'll see if I remember. Either way, if you're more that type of numbers junkie like me as opposed to fantasy stat monkey, check him out.

I do remember that last week was the first week that going by my little formula would have resulted in a better score than what I actually earned. Just in case you forgot, I went a season-worst 6-8 and scored 54 points, while last week's numbers would've went 9-7 for 62 points. That would've put me in first place across the board, so ... ouch. I didn't actually realize that until just now.

Oh well. This week, here's what the numbers would have me listing my picks as:

• 13—Colts over Rams (110)
• 12—Pats over Bucs (96)
• 11—Chargers over Chiefs (56)
• 10—Saints over Dolphins (53)
• 9—Packers over Browns (46)
• 8—Giants over Cardinals (42)
• 7 —Cowboys over Falcons (19)
• 6—Jets over Raiders (18)
• 5—Vikes over Steelers (17)
• 4—Eagles over Skins (16)
• 3—Bears over Bengals (14)
• 2—Texans over Niners (6)
• 1—Panthers over Bills (3)
  

And initially, that struck me as a pretty decent list, but of course the flaw in my formula is that it takes no intangibles into the numbers. So as long as I continue to bet against the Rams for instance, even if St. Louis suddenly won three in a row, I don't think they could ever come out of my formula as a favorite until weeks of winning negated the multitude of points they've already earned for me by being terrible.

That's essentially a long way of saying I want to pick a couple upsets this week. And if it ends up backfiring, I can go back to playing it safe and going by the numbers, but for this week I'm taking a couple of chances:

13 points
Indianapolis Colts (5-0) over St. Louis Rams (0-6)
+40/0 : +110/110/0 : 0/+70

Everybody else will have the same thing, so it's a wash even if the Rams pull off the seemingly impossible. Sorry if using St. Louis in my example in the preface there led you to believe they'd be my upset pick. I still haven't picked St. Louis to win ever since I began posting my game predictions online last season.

12 points
New England Patriots (4-2) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)
+18/-3 : +93/96/-3 : 0/+65

The other part of the natural weekly wash where the top couple point spots are the same teams. I'm sure the Patriots will enjoy putting on a show for the British while the Bucs get what counts as a home loss without having to deal with their own fans.

11 points
Green Bay Packers (3-2) over Cleveland Browns (1-5)
+9/+4 : +50/46/+4 : 0/+41

The Pack is a little banged up, but the Browns offense hasn't clicked all year (their only win was a 6-3 final). Even if Cleveland makes a game of it, Aaron Rodgers pads his fantasy numbers against a defense allowing more than 400 yards per game.

10 points
New York Giants (5-1) over Arizona Cardinals (3-2)
+54/0 : +44/42/-2 : -2/-10

Arizona's been something of a problem for me this year, but I just love going big on the Giants—especially this week in a Sunday Night game at home following a week of having their ass-kicking from the Saints constantly replayed. Eli Manning feasts on the league's second-worst pass defense.

9 points
Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) over Washington Redskins (2-4)
+14/+5 : +33/16/+17 : +12/+19

I'm not terribly fond of the idea of going so high on a road team in a Monday Night game, and Jason Campbell seems at his best against Philly. While the Eagles lost both games to Washington last year, this year's Redskins team doesn't score enough points a game to keep up with a Philly team that does.

8 points
New York Jets (3-3) over Oakland Raiders (2-4)
-11/-10 : +12/18/-6 : +4/+23

You would think that if anybody could break the Jets' West Coast woes (they lost all four games they played there last year), it'd be Mark Sanchez coming back to California for a weekend. Truth is, a much-needed victory will likely be less the result of how their rookie QB plays and more from their second-best rushing attack playing against an Oakland squad whose run defense is fifth-worst.

7 points
Carolina Panthers (2-3) over Buffalo Bills (2-4)
+18/+31 : +37/3/+34 : +3/+19

The Panthers should run all over the league's worst run defense while Ryan Fitzpatrick struggles in replacing Trent Edwards.

6 points
Houston Texans (3-3) over San Francisco 49ers (3-2)
-11/-10 : -10/6/-4 : +11/-1

Frank Gore's back and Michael Crabtree has finally arrived for San Fran, but the Texans defense has been showing signs of turning around while their offense has shown absolutely no signs of slowing down. That doesn't bode well for a Niner defense that allowed 45 points from Atlanta before going into the bye week.

5 points
Dallas Cowboys (3-2) over Atlanta Falcons (4-1)
+35/+4 : +39/19/+20 : +16/+4

No Jerious Norwood equates to no win for the Falcons. Atlanta's defense isn't strong enough to stop a well-rested Cowboys offense that's second in the league.

4 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) over Minnesota Vikings (6-0)
+28/0 : +24/17/+41 : +41/-4

Let's try this again, Part I: Last week's AFC North team in this point spot against the Vikings missed a last-second field goal. Minnesota's not so likely to get such lucky breaks this week on the road with a struggling pass defense against a Pittsburgh squad that's had great success moving the ball through the air.

3 points
Chicago Bears (3-2) over Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)
+17/-9 : -8/14/-22 : -13/-25

Let's try this again, Part II: The Bears let me down in this spot last week but Jay Cutler should fare better against a Bengals defense that got torched by Houston last week and also lost top pass rusher Antwan Odom.

2 points
Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) over San Diego Chargers (2-3)
0/+48 : +13/56/+69 : +21/+13

I fully expect an awful game as well as an awfully close game (a dozen games between these teams in their rivalry have been decided by a single point, the most of any rivalry in the NFL). Chiefs, at home one week after getting their first win on the road, pull off the upset.

1 point
Miami Dolphins (2-3) over New Orleans Saints (5-0)
+2/+16 : +1/53/+54 : +38/-1

Let's try this again, Part III: No, the Dolphins certainly aren't better than the Giants team I had beating the Saints in this spot last week, but they're also not going into New Orleans and they're not dealing with that sort of hype. The Fins historically have a knack for handing undefeated teams their first loss, and the Saints historically have a knack for losing in Miami since they're winless in three trips there.