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After some three months off from this blog, I guess we've arrived at the time of year where I'll have to crank out a bunch of predictions over the next two months. As usual, I'm sitting here saying that I should just stop this beginning-of-the-season nonsense where I only get a handful of picks right.
But of course, last year with my football predictions I was right about my Super Bowl winner. I nailed three of the four Championship game participants. And hey, six out of eight division winners ain't bad either.
So seeing as last year I was committed to picking against the Denver team that so many people were going with, I'm feeling something similar this year after every one of the roughly 50 predictions I first saw all have a Packers-Colts Super Bowl. When something is this widely picked, it's almost certainly going to be wrong.
All of that said, I still have no idea who I actually will be picking as I type this. I can say that I already hate it because I know there's going to be at least a few out-of-nowhere surprise teams this year that I'm probably going to be too chickenshit to pick.
After a busy (by this site's standards in recent years, at least) couple months, this will presumably be my last post for a couple more months. Who knows, maybe I'll finally feel compelled to write about something other than sports predictions.
As we prepare for the last basketball series of the year, we're getting the Finals that pretty everybody expected when the playoffs began. That was kind of implied in the subtitle to my picks for the last round. I've gone 12-2 this year in the playoffs, indicative not so much of my prognosticating prowess as just how much these series have played out exactly as expected.
There's been relatively little in the way of surprises this year, and the only series that went seven games both involved the Clippers. Both conference finals were over almost as soon as they started. While there's some muffled expectations of hope for these Finals, I'm not really going to hold my breath.
In fairness, we are probably getting the two teams that are fair representatives of the best clubs in their respective conferences. That said, in a rather injury-plagued playoffs (by NBA standards, at least), the Finals is probably not the must-see appointment TV it would be had both teams been fully healthy.
I will not be the least bit surprised if the NBA Finals starting one night after the first game of the Stanley Cup Final gets decided before the NHL season officially ends.
It took a little bit longer than I had both series going, but we still ended up with the two teams I was expecting. Somewhat remarkable to get the full seven games in both conference finals, but even more remarkable when the road teams win both of them. Whatever. I'll take it.
And I'll take this Final too. One that's extremely likely if not sure to be fast-paced, awe-inspiring displays of skill on the ice. Part of me expects more contests like the first and final three games of that 2010 Stanley Cup Final, except that this Tampa club is significantly more talented than that Philadelphia squad.
That belief is not to write off the two men who will presumably be starting in between the pipes in this series, Ben Bishop and Corey Crawford. Both those goaltenders have had their moments throughout these playoffs, but there's only so much either can do. With Crow in particular, he gave up goals in the last series against Anaheim, but I really can't remember any off the top of my head that we're on him or the result of some brain farts. The Ducks scored largely off deflections or screens that were impossible to stop. I expect similar scoring in this series.
Sure, the Bolts aren't going to deliver the ratings for NBC that the network would have garnered with the Rangers, but the product is probably going to be a lot better. Anyway, knowing who I'm a fan of and the team I haven't picked against since 2009, I guess the only question is how long I see this series going.
Alas, I am perfect no more. I only got half my pricks right in the last round, bringing my total in the playoffs to 10-2 with three series having the correct number of games.
The last round was somewhat painful on two levels. One is obviously the Bulls doing what I fully expected them to do: get eliminated in six games. Still, this was perhaps the best chance that team's ever going to have, what with Kevin Love out for the Cavs and Kyrie Irving ailing. Now Chicago will probably have to extend a max deal to Jimmy Butler and be locked into the league's most expensive backcourt that prevents the team form making any more meaningful additions. My hopes for the future are not very high, and the effort displayed in the Game 6 elimination was especially revolting.
The biggest surprise in the last round had to be the evening I went to bed thinking the same Clippers team I picked at the beginning of the year to win the title were on their way to the conference finals when I awoke to learn this. And then yesterday their collapse became complete.
The Atlanta Hawks moving on was also technically a surprise since I picked the Wizards, but that ouster of Washington was not totally unexpected. I guess I can't complain too much since we'll be getting a champion this year that we haven't seen in at least two decades (it would have been more than three had the Clips hung on).
It's been a long day, and the playoffs finally resume tomorrow after something like two days without hockey. Withdrawal is a bitch.
Anyway, I got half my picks right in the last round, bringing me to a forgettable 7-5 thus far this postseason. And I've already forgotten how many series I had exactly predicted, but it was none in the most recent round.
Of the four remaining Stanley Cup Final possibilities, the NHL has to be absolutely giddy at the prospect of the much-predicted Chicago-New York Final. That would almost be certain to smash all records with the rating that would deliver.
On the other hand, Tampa vs. Anaheim? That sounds like it could smash records too. Just the ones for lowest viewership.
So do I like either of those scenarios? Or am I guessing it's going to be one of the other two?
I can't remember the last time (if ever) I went eight-for-eight in first round playoff series predictions for the NBA (or hell, the NHL), but that's exactly what happened with the last round's picks. It almost makes me wish that I had tracked the picks of other experts, not that there would have been enormous differentiation since everybody had largely the same predictions except for maybe one or two series. OK, I only had the number of games each series would take right in two of the eight series, but let me have my moment.
All of that said, the first round was largely a colossal bore. I barely peeked in on much, with only the Spurs-Clippers seven-game series really living up to expectations. I can't see how things don't dramatically improve in the second round, what with most of the teams now having to play much better competition.
Once again, the West seems like the most attractive viewing, although this Bulls fan certainly will have a rooting interest in seeing if his favorite basketball team can knock off a suddenly vulnerable Cleveland squad. Am I optimistic about those chance?
Let's see.
You might recall that when we were at this point last year, I played it safe and picked the four teams that we had in the previous year's Conference Finals to all return and set up two rematches. Instead, half of those teams got eliminated.
So here we are getting ready for the conference semi-finals (division finals?), and—minus the Los Angeles Kings—three teams are looking at return trips to the Conference Finals. All three will have home ice, so that should make them presumed favorites, although expert opinion I've seen thus far has been decidedly mixed.
I played it safe in making my second round picks last year, and felt immediately convinced that all four of the higher-ranked seeds would be advancing this year after leaning decidedly toward the upsets last round. The result, however, was that only half of my six so-called upset predictions panned out—and the Blackhawks as an upset still seems a little misleading since a majority of the picks I saw had them favored to beat the Predators.
Either way, my 5-3 record in the first round probably wasn't the best set of predictions on the internet, although four of those five correct picks also nailed the exact number of games the series would last. I'm entirely convinced that at least one underdog is going to overachieve and ruin what I'm about to publish below for this round's predictions—assuming I do go with all four favorites, of course.
In comparison to the train wreck that was my NHL predictions, my NBA predictions were a bit better. Of course, it's a bit easier when there's two more divisions with less teams. But hey, at least my title series is still alive in this sport. Not that I'm overly confident in its likelihood.
Truth be told, my picks for this first round of the NBA playoffs are pretty much going to be the exact opposite of what I was anticipating in the NHL. In other words, I'm playing it on the so-called "safe" side here and picking nearly all favorites.
Trust me, I didn't think this would be the story when I was looking at the Western Conference standings a few weeks ago and thought there was a very real chance that all the lower seeds might advance (this, obviously, was when Kevin Durant was still presumed to be participating in the playoffs). The West is just so loaded with talent that I can't deny that three so-called upsets would not surprise me.
Either way, I'm anticipating a very lively and exciting first round of basketball. Well, in the West at least. I'm not terribly likely to rip myself away from any hockey for any series in the East. Probably not even the Bulls. Wake me when LeBron is playing Chicago, thank you.
Judging by my predictions from before the season began, I'm probably not the guy to trust on what is likely to occur in these playoffs. Although I correctly named 11 of the 16 playoff teams, I had a mere five teams in their correct spots in the final standings. Worse yet, my predicted Stanley Cup Final this year is a complete impossibility as both clubs were among those five teams that I was incorrect about postseason life for.
San Jose and Columbus aren't even the most shocking teams missing from the bracket, as we have a defending champion failing to make the playoffs for the first time in eight years. And a lot of folks had higher expectations of Boston too.
Still, we now gloriously turn our attention to the actual playoffs tonight, roughly two months that might be my wife's least favorite time of year—although hell if I'm not trying to make it one of the child's favorites. After all, the one common prediction that is still possible is the one I was and still am most hoping for: Blackhawks raising Lord Stanley once again.
I'm not going to be keeping track of the predictions of other sites this year (here's the ESPN and Sports Illustrated picks, if you're curious), but I'm guessing I probably won't be setting any records with my guess anyway. I've seen a lot of chalk in some places, but it just seems to me that this year is especially ripe for upsets. Now part of that is probably my own rooting interests (for this round, at least), but perhaps this could be something similar to 2006 when the lower seeds in an entire conference stunned the favorites.
Again, this could all just be wishful thinking, but I'm pretty confident that if nothing else, I'm bound to be pretty damn entertained over the course of the next several weeks.
Dammit, I had meant to type this up during one of my lunch breaks at work, but, well, you know. Been mighty quiet around these parts.
Anyway, I'm going to be limiting my comments to pretty much just the following intro. I had toyed with the picking the Cubs to win it all this year because of the Back to the Future 2 correlation, but it looks like Jesse Spector already beat me to that. I haven't looked for many of the predictions of others (we did get a copy of Sports Illustrated in which the magazine picked the Indians[!]), but I'm guessing that the Nationals have to be a pretty (deserving) popular favorite (once again).
Seeing as my predicted winner basically never wins the World Series, I went with the Dodgers last year and the logic paid off because Los Angeles did not win the World Series. I did get all five of the National League postseason teams correct, and I'm guessing most everybody has the same three division winners in that league again this year with the only variation being in the wild cards. The American League, on the other hand, is pretty up in the air.
I almost liked the idea of going with the Dodgers again just to jinx Hell-A. But if we're looking at recent history alternating Cardinals and Giants pennants, then this should be St. Louis going to the Series this year. So without any real explanation, here's my stabs at how each team is going to finish this year's baseball season:
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