Week 15 Picks

The 112 points I scored on my picks last week were middle-of-this-pack, although it appears they were good enough to win both of the confidence pools I'm in. Both the sheets based on Pro Football Weekly's spread and the percentages of Yahoo Users scored higher. Here's how everything looks this week:

PFW Spread		Brian Burke	Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	My Numbers
15—Cardinals (11)		16—Broncos (.94)	16—Cardinals (97%)	16—Broncos (25-12)	16—Cardinals (150)
15—Texans (11)		15—Eagles (.85)	14.5—Broncos (96%)	15—Cardinals (29-18)	15—Texans (147)
15—Broncos (11)		13.5—Cardinals (.83)	14.5—Vikings (96%)	14—Texans (27-17)	14—Vikings (112)
13—Ravens (10)		13.5—Chargers (.83)	13—Ravens (95%)	13—Colts (27-18)	13—Seahawks (93)
12—Eagles (7 ½)		12—Texans (.82)	12—Patriots (94%)	12—Ravens (24-15)	12—Giants (87)
9.5—Saints (7 ½)		11—Ravens (.81)	11—Texans (93%)	11—Eagles (26-18)	11—Colts (78)
9.5—Patriots (7 ½)		10—Jets (.77)	10—Eagles (92%)	10—Chargers (24-18)	10—Patriots (78)
9.5—Seahawks (7 ½)		9—Titans (.76)	8—Saints (90%)	9—Titans (26-20)	9—Saints (69)
9.5—Vikings (7 ½)		8—Colts (.72)	8—Colts (90%)	8—Patriots (23-18)	8—Packers (49)
7—Chargers (6 ½)		6.5—Saints (.71)	8—Seahawks (90%)	7—Vikings (25-20)	7—Broncos (47)
5—Giants (3)		6.5—Patriots (.71)	6—Chargers (84%)	6—Saints (28-23)	6—Eagles (46)
5—Chiefs (3)		5—Chiefs (.69)	5—Giants (80%)	5—Seahawks (21-17)	5—Chiefs (31)
5—Titans (3)		4—Seahawks (.65)	3.5—Titans (72%)	4—Jets (22-19)	4—Chargers (29)
2.5—Steelers (2 ½)		3—Vikings (.60)	3.5—Chiefs (72%)	3—Steelers (24-23)	3—Ravens (18)
2.5—Jets (2 ½)		2—Steelers (.59)	2—Packers (64%)	2—Redskins (23-22)	2—Dolphins (16)
1—Colts (1 ½)		1—Giants (.58)	1—Jets (63%)	1—Chiefs (17-16)	1—Jets (13)
85 points (10-6)		91.5 points (10-6)	84.5 points (9-7)	95 points (9-7)	77 points (8-8)

With only three weeks left in the season and me being in second in both confidence pools, here's what I'm hoping leads to a three-peat for weekly wins:

16 points
Arizona Cardinals (8-5) over Detroit Lions (2-11)
0/-27 : +123/150/-27 : 0/+123

The hapless Lions could make a late-season push to regain their top spot on my Power Rankings against the team currently ranked last.

15 points
Denver Broncos (8-5) over Oakland Raiders (4-9)
+11/-3 : +48/47/+1 : +4/+37

Josh McDaniels should lead the Broncos one step closer to a playoff berth in his first season.

14 points
Houston Texans (6-7) over St. Louis Rams (1-12)
-6/+28 : +114/86/+28 : 0/+120

The Texans should get back to .500 and set up yet another 8-8 finish. It was nice knowing you, Mr. Kubiak.

13 points
Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) over San Francisco 49ers (6-7)
+37/+3 : +53/46/+7 : +4/+16

The Eagles of late have started to resemble the team I had predicted would end up in the Super Bowl.

12 points
Baltimore Ravens (7-6) over Chicago Bears (5-8)
+41/+1 : +54/18/+36 : +35/+13

The not-dead-yet Ravens will enjoy another week of life in the playoff chase.

11 points
Minnesota Vikings (11-2) over Carolina Panthers (5-8)
+80/-4 : +127/112/+15 : +19/+47

The Vikes move a step closer to ensuring they get a first-round bye.

10 points
New England Patriots (8-5) over Buffalo Bills (5-8)
+48/-3 : +83/78/+5 : +8/+35

The Pats need to hurry up and wrap up a division they were widely expected to run away with.

9 points

Seattle Seahawks (5-8) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-12)
+29/+61 : +154/93/+61 : 0/+125

Seattle's something of a mess, but nowhere near as bad as a Tampa team coming in from the other side of the country.

8 points
San Diego Chargers (10-3) over Cincinnati Bengals (9-4)
+77/+7 : +48/29/+19 : +12/-29

Huge game for both teams as the winner likely gets the other opening round bye in the playoffs. The Bolts, clicking on all cylinders now, should take advantage of a possible tie-breaker.

7 points
Indianapolis Colts (13-0) over Jacksonville Jaguars (7-6)
+99/-4 : +89/78/+11 : +15/-10

I could get screwed if Indy decides to rest key starters early into the game, but I'm still willing to bet that a chance at perfection propels the Colts to get past the Jags.

6 points
New Orleans Saints (13-0) over Dallas Cowboys (8-5)
+115/-7 : +117/69/+48 : +55/+2

Big D's struggles in December won't be helped by having to go into the rowdy Superdome on a Saturday night.

5 points
Tennessee Titans (6-7) over Miami Dolphins (7-6)
+8/+28 : +17/16/+33 : +5/+9

Chris Johnson > Wildcat.

4 points
New York Giants (7-6) over Washington Redskins (4-9)
+32/-6 : +97/87/+10 : +16/+65

The Skins could give the G-Men trouble in D.C., but ultimately New York comes away victorious in the first of three must-win games.

3 points
Kansas City Chiefs (3-10) over Cleveland Browns (2-11)
-1/+68 : +99/31/+68 : 0/+100

I'm tempted to believe the Browns could compile a two-game winning streak, but instead I'll opt for the Chiefs to take advantage of playing at home.

2 points
New York Jets (7-6) over Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
+7/+2 : +50/13/+37 : +35/+43

Much like the game I ranked right above this one, I'll favor the home team with the better overall record.

1 point
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7) over Green Bay Packers (9-4)
-14/-1 : -19/49/+30 : +31/-5

I'm giving the World Champs one last shot (NOTE: Probably not the "last shot," of course).