Week 16 Power Rankings

I went 12-4 on my picks last week, and while that mark indeed sounds pretty good, the fact that my smallest point miss was the eight I had on the Giants, I obviously didn't fare all that hot in the pools. In the regular non-Yahoo pool, my 92 points was good only for sixth place (out of 10). The front-runner on the year finished two points ahead of me for the week, so her overall lead has now been extended to 14 as we head into the final week. My 1421 points overall does, however, keep me 53 points ahead of the fellow in third place, so barring a really epic disaster this coming weekend, I should finish no worse than second in that particular pool.

That score on the year also has me in second in the Yahoo pool, but the deficit there is 18 points out of first while I'm 55 ahead of third. (Before I pat myself on the back about how good my point allocation is, the guy 18 points ahead of me has the exact same 160-80 record on the year. But the fact that the dudes in third and fourth are both one game better is kinda nice.) So now the only question for the remainder of the week is whether or not to play it safe for this final week.

The good part about going 12-4, of course, is that I share best score of the week honors with ESPN's Adam Schefter. Oh, Ron Jaworski also got 12 right, but only missed three because he had to objectively talk about the difficulty of handling balls.

Elsewhere among my usual group of prognosticators, Seth Wickersham and Merrill Hoge both went 11-5 on their picks, while Mike Golic, Mark Schlereth, Yahoo's Jason Cole and Michael Silver all went 10-6. Eric Allen, Chris Mortensen, Charles Robinson, the bro-in-law and CBS Sports' Pete Prisco all brought up the rear by going 9-7.

Now, on the year (numbers in parentheses still indicating where the dude stood in the rankings last week):

1. (1) Merril Hoge, ESPN: 163-77 (.679)
2. (1) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 162-78 (.675)
3. (3) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 160-80 (.667)

3. (6) YOURS TRULY: 160-80 (.667)

3. (6) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 160-80 (.667)

6. (4) Charles Robinson, Yahoo: 159-81 (.663)
7. (5) LEV, crazy colored glasses: 158-82 (.658)
8. (13) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 147-77 (.656)
9. (8) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 157-83 (.654)

10. (9) Mike Golic, ESPN: 156-83 (.653)

11. (10) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 156-84 (.650)

11. (11) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 156-84 (.650)

13. (11) Eric Allen, ESPN: 154-86 (.642)

14. (14) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 147-93 (.613)

Only one week left and all but five teams are assured to finish on the positive side. Now last year, only three teams finished above 100 for points earned and only one finished in the negative. As of right now, the odds look pretty good that I can end up with just as many teams at 100+ (if not a couple more), but I'm also running the risk of having more teams in the red than last season:

1. (1) ST. LOUIS RAMS

• Last week: Lost to Arizona, 31-10 (+15)
  
• Actual Record: 1-14
• My predicted record: 0-15
• My record at predicting their record: 14-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +169
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +163
  

When I pick the Niners this coming Sunday (please note that there's no "if" there ...), it will mark the second consecutive year I've gone an entire season without picking the Rams to win. I don't know what one area needs to be fixed in order for me to finally have St. Louis winning a game in 2010, but here's a few suggestions to start with.

2. (2) DETROIT LIONS

• Last week: Lost to San Francisco, 20-6 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 2-13
• My predicted record: 2-13
• My record at predicting their record: 13-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +6
• Points scored for me with losses: +160
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
• Points taken from me with losses: -6
  
• Plus/Minus: +152
  

While it's hard to top the suspense of last year's entirely winless run, fans in Detroit do still have to wait to see how high they'll end up in the draft order (It won't be worse than third!).

3. (3) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• Last week: Beat New Orleans, 20-17 (-16)
  
• Actual Record: 3-12
• My predicted record: 0-15
• My record at predicting their record: 12-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +138
• Points taken from me with wins: -38
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +100
  

Raheem Morris is no sure bet to return, but the Bill Cowher to Tampa talk (the guy's name will probably even come up in cities without a coaching vacancy at this rate) is somewhat ridiculous to me considering that The Chin has said he wants to coach a team that's already got a QB in place. I don't think Josh Freeman is what he had in mind.

4. (6) CLEVELAND BROWNS

• Last week: Beat Oakland, 23-9 (+1)
  
• Actual Record: 4-11
• My predicted record: 1-14
• My record at predicting their record: 12-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +1
• Points scored for me with losses: +122
• Points taken from me with wins: -25
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +98

The press has a few things for you to keep in mind, Mr. Holmgren.

5. (7) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

• Last week: Beat Tennessee, 42-17 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 12-3
• My predicted record: 10-5
• My record at predicting their record: 13-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +89
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +13
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +96
  

Because some asshole was bound to bring it up sooner or later: When is a decade not a decade?

6. (9) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• Last week: Lost to Green Bay, 48-10 (+14)
  
• Actual Record: 5-10
• My predicted record: 8-7
• My record at predicting their record: 12-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +36
• Points scored for me with losses: +75
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -16
  
• Plus/Minus: +95

I'm certainly among those who had higher hopes for this year's Seahawks, but now we're left to discuss things like whether the Matt Hasselbeck of this past decade was as good as the Dave Krieg that was under center for Seattle for essentially all of the 1980s.

7. (5) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• Last week: Lost to New York Jets, 29-15 (-11)
  
• Actual Record: 14-1
• My predicted record: 13-2
• My record at predicting their record: 12-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +106
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -4
• Points taken from me with losses: -11
  
• Plus/Minus: +91
  

I believe Jason Cole has a point that it was only after the Colts perfect season hopes ended that Jim Caldwell finally started getting his name mentioned. (Wow! A search of this blog for the Indy head coach's name turns up nothing! You know what that means!)

8. (8) WASHINGTON REDSKINS

• Last week: Lost to Dallas, 17-0 (+5)
  
• Actual Record: 4-11
• My predicted record: 6-9
• My record at predicting their record: 12-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +29
• Points scored for me with losses: +85
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -11
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -13
• Plus/Minus: +90
  

Jim Zorn isn't having fun this season, but still somehow manages to call the year a "great experience."

9. (4) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

• Last week: Lost to Tampa Bay, 20-17 (-16)
  
• Actual Record: 13-2
• My predicted record: 12-3
• My record at predicting their record: 10-5
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +115
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -7
• Points taken from me with losses: -22
  
• Plus/Minus: +86
  

Tom Benson: "My bad."

10. (10) ATLANTA FALCONS

• Last week: Beat Buffalo, 31-3 (+6)
  
• Actual Record: 8-7
• My predicted record: 7-8
• My record at predicting their record: 12-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +46
• Points scored for me with losses: +46
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
• Plus/Minus: +82
  

Let's put this possible consecutive winning seasons scenario in perspective.

11. (12) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Last week: Lost to Cincinnati, 17-10 (+12)
  
• Actual Record: 3-12
• My predicted record: 3-12
• My record at predicting their record: 11-4
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +1
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +101
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -21
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
  
• Plus/Minus: +76
  

For the first time in more than three decades, Kansas City won't be sending any players to the Pro Bowl—but Todd Haley thinks knocking the Broncos out of the playoffs would make up for that.

12. (14) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

• Last week: Beat Jacksonville, 35-7 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 10-5
• My predicted record: 14-1
• My record at predicting their record: 9-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +99
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
• Points taken from me with losses: -31
• Plus/Minus: +65

Remember which team I picked to win it all this year? Yeah, well, their defense seems to be peaking at just the right time.

13. (17) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• Last week: Beat Denver, 30-27 (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 11-4
• My predicted record: 11-4
• My record at predicting their record: 11-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +76
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +9
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -19
  
• Plus/Minus: +60
  

Michael Vick: Hardly the on-field presence we once knew him as, but an award-winner all the same.

14. (17) BUFFALO BILLS

• Last week: Lost to Atlanta, 31-3 (+6)
  
• Actual Record: 5-10
• My predicted record: 3-12
• My record at predicting their record: 11-4
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +15
• Points scored for me with losses: +77
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -26
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
• Plus/Minus: +59
  

And with his 1,000th catch last week, let the Hall of Fame questions begin regarding Terrell Owens. (It's not like there's much else to talk about in Buffalo, anyway.)

15. (16) BALTIMORE RAVENS

• Last week: Lost to Pittsburgh, 23-20 (+3)
  
• Actual Record: 8-7
  
• My predicted record: 10-5
• My record at predicting their record: 9-6
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +71
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +8
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -4
• Points taken from me with losses: -18
• Plus/Minus: +57

Rather remarkably, the Ravens only need a win over the Raiders to get into the playoffs. (Cutting back on the league-leading amount of penalties may help.)

16. (11) MINNESOTA VIKINGS

• Last week: Lost to Chicago, 36-30 (-9)
  
• Actual Record: 11-4
• My predicted record: 12-3
• My record at predicting their record: 10-5
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +89
• Points scored for me with losses: +4
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
• Points taken from me with losses: -29
• Plus/Minus: +56
  

Getting a head start on the excuses they'll need for being ousted from the playoffs earlier than expected, let's dwell on the officials missing a face mask flag on Monday.

16. (19) DALLAS COWBOYS

• Last week: Beat Washington, 17-0 (+5)
  
• Actual Record: 10-5
• My predicted record: 10-5
• My record at predicting their record: 11-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +75
• Points scored for me with losses: +7
• Points taken from me with wins: -11
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -15
  
• Plus/Minus: +56

Remember last year when the Eagles beat the Cowboys 44-6? Do you remember that? Seriously! I guess you have to ask yourself: Can Dallas really cover the spread?

18. (13) CHICAGO BEARS

• Last week: Beat Minnesota, 36-30 (-9)
  
• Actual Record: 6-9
• My predicted record: 9-6
• My record at predicting their record: 8-7
• Points scored for me with wins: +46
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +34
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -18
• Points taken from me with losses: -11
  
• Plus/Minus: +51
  

Just to make the Vikings fans angry: Hunter Hillenmeyer named Shutdown Corner's defensive player of the week—presumably for face masking Adrian Peterson.

19. (14) CAROLINA PANTHERS

• Last week: Beat New York Giants, 41-9 (-8)
  
• Actual Record: 7-8
• My predicted record: 5-10
• My record at predicting their record: 9-6
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +29
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +60
• Points taken from me with wins: -32
• Points taken from me with losses: -10
  
• Plus/Minus: +47

On the one hand, it sounds like John Fox will be back. On the other hand, Julius Peppers will be ... thinking about it?

20. (21) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• Last week: Beat Detroit, 20-6 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 7-8
• My predicted record: 3-12
• My record at predicting their record: 9-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +24
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +48
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -19
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
  
• Plus/Minus: +46
  

I didn't realize Patrick Willis was looking at being the league's leading tackler for the second time in three years.

21. (20) TENNESSEE TITANS

• Last week: Lost to San Diego, 42-17 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 7-8
• My predicted record: 8-7
• My record at predicting their record: 10-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +34
• Points scored for me with losses: +40
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -21
• Plus/Minus: +45

Of course Jeff Fisher won't say, but can't we just look at the tape?

22. (23) GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Last week: Beat Seattle, 48-10 (+14)
  
• Actual Record: 10-5
• My predicted record: 11-4
• My record at predicting their record: 10-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +76
• Points scored for me with losses: +6
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -10
• Points taken from me with losses: -31
  
• Plus/Minus: +41
  

They're dreaming about the ways in which the Packers could possibly kick off the playoffs with a Minnesota rematch.

23. (24) OAKLAND RAIDERS

• Last week: Lost to Cleveland, 23-9 (+1)
  
• Actual Record: 5-10
• My predicted record: 1-14
• My record at predicting their record: 11-4
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +4
• Points scored for me with losses: +74
• Points taken from me with wins: -51
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +27
  

So Oakland, how you feeling about that Richard Seymour deal?

24. (25) HOUSTON TEXANS

• Last week: Beat Miami, 27-20 (+2)
  
• Actual Record: 8-7
• My predicted record: 9-6
• My record at predicting their record: 10-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +42
• Points scored for me with losses: +17
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -20
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -16
  
• Plus/Minus: +23
  

Michael Silver feels my pain about having higher expectations for the Texans (who could still pull it out! [—but probably won't]).

25. (22) NEW YORK GIANTS

• Last week: Lost to Carolina, 41-9 (-8)
  
• Actual Record: 8-7
• My predicted record: 14-1
• My record at predicting their record: 7-8
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +66
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -38
• Plus/Minus: +22
  

You bet your ass you're "sorry."

25. (27) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

• Last week: Lost to New England, 35-7 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 7-8
• My predicted record: 8-7
• My record at predicting their record: 8-7
• Points scored for me with wins: +27
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +31
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -24
• Points taken from me with losses: -12
• Plus/Minus: +22
  

Never forget.

27. (26) MIAMI DOLPHINS

• Last week: Lost to Houston, 27-20 (+2)
  
• Actual Record: 7-8
• My predicted record: 5-10
• My record at predicting their record: 9-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +14
• Points scored for me with losses: +32
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -16
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -9
  
• Plus/Minus: +21
  

In all honesty, it wouldn't totally stun me if the Dolphins somehow still stumble into the playoffs. I didn't even realize they were still in it.

28. (31) ARIZONA CARDINALS

• Last week: Beat St. Louis, 31-10 (+15)
  
• Actual Record: 10-5
• My predicted record: 8-7
• My record at predicting their record: 7-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +52
• Points scored for me with losses: +6
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -33
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -21
• Plus/Minus: +4

That would admittedly be pretty fucked up if the Cardinals had to play the Packers two weeks in a row.

29. (30) CINCINNATI BENGALS

• Last week: Beat Kansas City, 17-10 (+12)
  
• Actual Record: 10-5
• My predicted record: 7-8
• My record at predicting their record: 6-9
• Points scored for me with wins: +52
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +16
• Points taken from me with wins: -37
• Points taken from me with losses: -28
• Plus/Minus: +3
  

I guess if Cincy needed any motivation going into the playoffs, the total dissing of being the only team in the division they swept without a Pro Bowler might do the trick.

30. (29) DENVER BRONCOS

• Last week: Lost to Philadelphia, 30-27 (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 8-7
• My predicted record: 9-6
• My record at predicting their record: 8-7
• Points scored for me with wins: +25
• Points scored for me with losses: +23
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -19
• Points taken from me with losses: -29
  
• Plus/Minus: EVEN
  

This is is totally fitting, of course. The Broncos were the one team in the negative last year, and now it all depends on their finale with Kansas City as to whether they do it again or not. I'm thinking that a playoff berth riding on the game has to help, but with this team, you never know.

31. (28) NEW YORK JETS

• Last week: Beat Indianapolis, 29-15 (-11)
  
• Actual Record: 8-7
• My predicted record: 8-7
• My record at predicting their record: 7-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +28
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +19
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -28
• Points taken from me with losses: -23
  
• Plus/Minus: -4
  

Well, it'll be hard to do worse than the Giants did in their finale, but it sure sounds like the Jets better be pulling for New England.

32. (32) PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• Last week: Beat Baltimore, 23-20 (+3)
  
• Actual Record: 8-7
  
• My predicted record: 14-1
• My record at predicting their record: 7-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +48
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -1
• Points taken from me with losses: -58
  
• Plus/Minus: -11

Considering they'll finish the year with Miami and playoff implications for both, it's one I don't imagine myself wagering real high on. It's amazing to me if last year's Super Bowl Champions do indeed finish at the very bottom for the year.

Everything else is already locked in as either a winning or losing spot (only the one- and three-point games this year were under .500), with the only exception being my six- and seven-point game spots that have come down to the final week:

16-point games: 7-2
15-point games: 7-3
14-point games: 11-2
13-point games: 14-2
12-point games: 16-0
11-point games: 11-5
10-point games: 14-2
9-point games: 10-6
8-point games: 10-6
7-point games: 8-8
6-point games: 8-8
5-point games: 10-6
4-point games: 12-4
3-point games: 6-10
2-point games: 9-7
1-point games: 7-9

Playoff seeding predictions (numbers in parentheses indicates where I had them ranked last week [boldface indicates team has clinched playoff berth, italics indicates team is locked in at seed listed]):

AFC
#1 (1) Indianapolis Colts
#2 (2) San Diego Chargers
#3 (3) New England Patriots

#4 (4) Cincinnati Bengals
#5 (-) Baltimore Ravens
#6 (-) New York Jets

NFC
#1 (1) New Orleans Saints
#2 (2) Philadelphia Eagles

#3 (3) Minnesota Vikings
#4 (4) Arizona Cardinals
#5 (5) Green Bay Packers
#6 (-) Dallas Cowboys