Week 14 Power Rankings

Look there to your right, folks, and savor that. I opted to switch my profile picture on my Yahoo profile in honor of the miserable squad that was my fantasy football team this first go at things. I really don't see a single guy on my team that I'd be dying to have on my roster next year when I inevitably give the league another try, knowing full well that I can only improve, seeing as I finished a worst-possible 12th out of 12 teams. (I do note, however, that the team that finished ahead of me scored actually scored less points this year and won the same number of games, but they also earned a tie, which means they had one less loss than my big ol' pile of suck I accumulated.)

Anyway, that tie also kinda screwed my brother-in-law out of a spot, which sucks for him because his team wasn't all that bad (actually, it was a pretty balanced league for the top 10 teams ... myself and the 11th guy ... not so much). Oh, and his wife/my sister did make the playoffs, so he has to still hear about while I can pretty much ignore it—although I know full well he'll be happy to root her on and I will of course do the same.

Of course, as evidenced by what takes up a majority of the posts these days around these parts, my heart still remains fully entrenched in my confidence pools. And nothing makes fantasy football matter less than winning two weeks in a row—kind of.

See, my picks last week scored me 112 points, which was good for first place (out of nine) again in the Yahoo pool I'm in (but hardly mention). I'm only 22 behind the leader there.

The other one that I have been in for two years now and mention more often was also another strong finish. But it appears my 112 points will only be good for second place (out of 11) over there because the fellow who runs the pool changed his pick from Pittsburgh for 15 points on Thursday night to Cleveland for 2 points ... some time before kickoff ... I guess. (I didn't learn of the change of heart until Sunday.) It appears I was the only one who noticed this and said anything about it, and if I was the only person making a big stink about it, I told the guy to just go ahead and use whichever sheet he wanted. I could only make the point that it was handled poorly and thanks to San Francisco's upset of the Cardinals on Monday night, it meant the difference between first and second—for the week.

On the year, the 112 points brought me to 1239 points overall and keeps me in second place (out of 17 or something ... more like eight or nine, really, at this point) and I trail first place by 23 points in that one.

My win-loss record last week was a pretty respectable 12-4, which brings me to 138-70 (.663) on the year and still keeps me two games ahead of where I was at this point last season. Bro-in-law, and both Eric Allen and Mark Schlereth of ESPN had the best marks of the week at 13-3. My own 12-4 was also recorded by Yahoo's Jason Cole and Michael Silver as well as Chris Mortensen and Seth Wickersham. Charles Robinson, Mike Golic, and Merrill Hoge all went 11-5 while Ron Jaworski also picked 11 games correctly, but only missed four—although I think we can all assume he would've picked Arizona, so he caught a break this week. Adam Schefter actually did pick the Niners, but got a lot of other supposed upsets wrong and only finished 9-7 while Pete Prisco of CBS Sports went back to dogging it and broke even at 8-8.

Now, on the year (numbers in parentheses still indicating where the dude stood in the rankings last week):

1. (1) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 145-63 (.697)
2. (2) Merril Hoge, ESPN: 142-66 (.683)
3. (3) Charles Robinson, Yahoo: 141-67 (.678)
3. (4) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 141-67 (.678)
5. (7) LEV, crazy colored glasses: 139-69 (.668)

6. (7) YOURS TRULY: 138-70 (.663)

6. (10) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 138-70 (.663)

8. (6) Mike Golic, ESPN: 137-70 (.662)

9. (9) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 128-66 (.660)

10. (5) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 137-71 (.659)
10. (10) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 137-71 (.659)
12. (12) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 136-72 (.654)
13. (13) Eric Allen, ESPN: 135-73 (.649)
14. (13) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 130-78 (.625)

OK, are you ready for some really great news now? I'm down to three teams in the red on the year in the Power Rankings. Oh sure, all three are going to need at least two weeks to get out if they can, but for the most part it's good news all around the league from my perspective.

And keeping with what I did last year, I'll also be offering my first series of revised playoff seedings at the end of this post:

1. (1) ST. LOUIS RAMS

• Last week: Lost to Tennessee, 47-7(+14)
  
• Actual Record: 1-12
• My predicted record: 0-13
• My record at predicting their record: 12-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +140
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +134
  

They've only got three more games left in another miserable year (all against teams with some glimmer of playoff hope at the moment), but they waited all year to finally ditch Richie Incognito.

2. (2) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• Last week: Lost to New York Jets, 26-3 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 1-12
• My predicted record: 0-13
• My record at predicting their record: 12-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +138
• Points taken from me with wins: -13
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +125
  

A long flight to Seattle and then a visit to New Orleans doesn't sound like a very promising road trip for the Bucs, but perhaps if they've mastered the art of the onside kick, then maybe they can get one more win this year. (I won't be picking it.)

3. (4) DETROIT LIONS

• Last week: Lost to Baltimore, 48-3 (+16)
  
• Actual Record: 2-11
• My predicted record: 2-11
• My record at predicting their record: 11-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +6
• Points scored for me with losses: +131
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
• Points taken from me with losses: -6
  
• Plus/Minus: +123
  

Quitters?

4. (5) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

• Last week: Beat Atlanta, 26-23 (+12)
  
• Actual Record: 13-0
• My predicted record: 10-3
• My record at predicting their record: 10-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +115
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -7
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +108
  

Part of me wants to say that if they get by the Cowboys this week, the perfect regular season is theirs—but that last game on the road in Carolina could be tricky, although it doesn't sound like Sean Payton plans on resting any of his boys.

5. (2) CLEVELAND BROWNS

• Last week: Beat Pittsburgh, 13-6 (-15)
  
• Actual Record: 2-11
• My predicted record: 0-13
• My record at predicting their record: 11-2
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +122
• Points taken from me with wins: -22
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +100

Cleveland's schedule is soft enough at the finish that they could end up saving Eric Mangini's job—although it certainly would be interesting if he's suddenly answering to Mike Holmgren next year.

6. (6) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• Last week: Beat Denver, 28-16 (+11)
  
• Actual Record: 13-0
• My predicted record: 11-2
• My record at predicting their record: 11-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +99
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -4
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +95
  

Unlike the previously mentioned unbeaten Saints, the Colts aren't shy about their plan to reduce Payton Manning's playing time.

7. (7) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• Last week: Lost to Houston, 34-7 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 5-8
• My predicted record: 7-6
• My record at predicting their record: 11-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +36
• Points scored for me with losses: +61
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
  
• Plus/Minus: +90

Now that Seattle's out of contention, Jim Mora wants to talk about shaking things up.

8. (7) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

• Last week: Beat Dallas, 20-17 (+3)
  
• Actual Record: 10-3
• My predicted record: 8-5
• My record at predicting their record: 11-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +77
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +13
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +84
  

Who wants to play these guys right now? They are undoubtedly—HOLY SHIT! Somebody said something positive about Ryan Leaf?

9. (9) WASHINGTON REDSKINS

• Last week: Beat Oakland, 34-13 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 4-9
• My predicted record: 6-7
• My record at predicting their record: 10-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +29
• Points scored for me with losses: +76
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -11
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -13
• Plus/Minus: +81
  

Ouch: The Giants and the Cowboys both come to town back-to-back and both still fighting for the playoffs, and then the Skins end the year in San Diego. At least Clinton Portis' concussion that ended his season this year won't end his career.

10. (11) ATLANTA FALCONS

• Last week: Lost to New Orleans, 26-23 (+12)
  
• Actual Record: 6-7
• My predicted record: 6-7
• My record at predicting their record: 11-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +40
• Points scored for me with losses: +46
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
• Plus/Minus: +78
  

They've certainly lost a lot of that luster they had when the Dirty Birds started 4-1, but all's not entirely lost yet. While two of their final three will be on the road, only one is against a team with a winning record and one of those opponents is Tampa Bay. The key, I would think, might involve not doing anything too stupid.

11. (10) MINNESOTA VIKINGS

• Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 30-10 (+8)
  
• Actual Record: 11-2
• My predicted record: 10-3
• My record at predicting their record: 10-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +89
• Points scored for me with losses: +4
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
• Points taken from me with losses: -9
• Plus/Minus: +76
  

I stand corrected about one member of my fantasy football team. (Maybe.)

12. (12) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Last week: Lost to Buffalo, 16-10 (+5)
  
• Actual Record: 3-10
• My predicted record: 2-11
• My record at predicting their record: 10-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +1
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +89
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -21
• Points taken from me with losses: -2
  
• Plus/Minus: +67
  

Do any Chiefs fans still want to make December 15 a national holiday?.

13. (14) CAROLINA PANTHERS

• Last week: Lost to New England, 20-10 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 5-8
• My predicted record: 5-8
• My record at predicting their record: 9-4
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +29
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +60
• Points taken from me with wins: -13
• Points taken from me with losses: -10
  
• Plus/Minus: +66

If nothing else, the Panthers did inspire some snide remarks from Bill Belichick.

14. (13) DALLAS COWBOYS

• Last week: Lost to San Diego, 20-17 (+3)
  
• Actual Record: 8-5
• My predicted record: 9-4
• My record at predicting their record: 10-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +70
• Points scored for me with losses: +7
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -15
  
• Plus/Minus: +57

You know, not everything has to be about Tony Romo (although, in that case, it probably is).

15. (15) CHICAGO BEARS

• Last week: Lost to Green Bay, 21-14 (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 5-8
• My predicted record: 9-4
• My record at predicting their record: 7-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +46
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +22
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -9
• Points taken from me with losses: -11
  
• Plus/Minus: +48
  

I've been skeptical about how realistic it would be for Lovie Smith to be fired after this season, but his two-timeout disaster in Green Bay—and his account of what was wrong differing from Ron Turner's—has nearly erased that. Now it seems that a shakeup is certain.

16. (19) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

• Last week: Beat Carolina, 20-10 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 8-5
• My predicted record: 12-1
• My record at predicting their record: 7-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +79
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
• Points taken from me with losses: -31
• Plus/Minus: +45

A few months ago, their final three games didn't look very scary. But now with the resurgent Dolphins breathing down their necks and questions abounding as to whether Randy Moss "shut it down," I'm not taking anything for granted.

17. (17) BUFFALO BILLS

• Last week: Beat Kansas City, 16-10 (+5)
  
• Actual Record: 5-8
• My predicted record: 3-10
• My record at predicting their record: 9-4
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +15
• Points scored for me with losses: +61
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -26
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
• Plus/Minus: +43
  

It looks like they won't be getting any easy way out this year with the Patriots and Colts coming to town with a visit to Atlanta squeezed in there, but hey, Terrell Owens will be OK.

18. (21) BALTIMORE RAVENS

• Last week: Beat Detroit, 48-3 (+16)
  
• Actual Record: 7-6
  
• My predicted record: 9-4
• My record at predicting their record: 7-6
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +59
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +5
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -4
• Points taken from me with losses: -18
• Plus/Minus: +42

While they'll certainly need a winning streak to get into the playoffs, it figures that the Ravens' hopes will probably hinge on a visit to Pittsburgh in Week 16.

19. (18) OAKLAND RAIDERS

• Last week: Lost to Washington, 34-13 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 4-9
• My predicted record: 1-12
• My record at predicting their record: 10-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +4
• Points scored for me with losses: +73
• Points taken from me with wins: -36
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +41
  

Perhaps the Raiders are hoping J.P. Losman can be the next Kurt Warner, but I'm guessing more like Tommy Maddox.

20. (15) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• Last week: Beat New York Giants, 45-38 (-1)
  
• Actual Record: 9-4
• My predicted record: 9-4
• My record at predicting their record: 9-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +56
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +9
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -19
  
• Plus/Minus: +40
  

Love this:

21. (23) TENNESSEE TITANS

• Last week: Beat St. Louis, 47-7 (+14)
  
• Actual Record: 6-7
• My predicted record: 7-6
• My record at predicting their record: 8-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +29
• Points scored for me with losses: +36
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -21
• Plus/Minus: +36

While the Rams and a QB making his first start made for an ideal cream puff to start their three-game homestand, it only gets tougher with Miami coming in this week and also looking for a playoff berth. And after that, the Titans get the Chargers, so Vince Young better be ready to play if Tennesse's to have any chance.

22. (20) NEW YORK GIANTS

• Last week: Lost to Philadelphia, 45-38 (-1)
  
• Actual Record: 7-6
• My predicted record: 12-1
• My record at predicting their record: 6-7
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +62
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -30
• Plus/Minus: +26
  

The Giants have two more pretty winnable games before they end the year in Minnesota (again), and all the pressure seems to be (deservedly) on Bill Sheridan.

22. (24) GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Last week: Beat Chicago, 21-14 (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 9-4
• My predicted record: 10-3
• My record at predicting their record: 8-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +62
• Points scored for me with losses: +5
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -10
• Points taken from me with losses: -31
  
• Plus/Minus: +26
  

Let that conversation begin. (Good luck with that one, I say. Defensive Player of the Year? Sure.)

24. (21) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• Last week: Beat Arizona, 24-9 (-6)
  
• Actual Record: 6-7
• My predicted record: 2-11
• My record at predicting their record: 7-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +11
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +35
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -19
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
  
• Plus/Minus: +20
  

Yikes.

25. (25) MIAMI DOLPHINS

• Last week: Beat Jacksonville, 14-10 (-2)
  
• Actual Record: 7-6
• My predicted record: 5-8
• My record at predicting their record: 7-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +14
• Points scored for me with losses: +25
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -16
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -9
  
• Plus/Minus: +14
  

Three straight teams all sitting at 6-7 at the moment leads me to believe that the Fins will once again find their way into the playoffs—and immediately get eliminated.

26. (28) NEW YORK JETS

• Last week: Beat Tampa Bay, 26-3 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 7-6
• My predicted record: 7-6
• My record at predicting their record: 7-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +28
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +19
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -17
• Points taken from me with losses: -21
  
• Plus/Minus: +9
  

Don't look now but the Jets D is tops in points as well as yards allowed per game. (Again: They just played Tampa Bay. They wrap up the year with Atlanta, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati, so let's talk after that, OK?)

27. (30) DENVER BRONCOS

• Last week: Lost to Indianapolis, 28-16 (+11)
  
• Actual Record: 8-5
• My predicted record: 8-5
• My record at predicting their record: 7-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +25
• Points scored for me with losses: +16
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -19
• Points taken from me with losses: -14
  
• Plus/Minus: +8
  

As admirable as the 21 was, 22 is still greater. Games remaining against Oakland and Kansas City should help though.

28. (29) HOUSTON TEXANS

• Last week: Beat Seattle, 34-7 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 6-7
• My predicted record: 7-6
• My record at predicting their record: 8-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +26
• Points scored for me with losses: +17
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -20
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -16
  
• Plus/Minus: +7
  

If the Texans finish 8-8 once again, there's another culprit other than Gary Kubiak.

29. (26) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

• Last week: Lost to Miami, 14-10 (-2)
  
• Actual Record: 7-6
• My predicted record: 8-5
• My record at predicting their record: 6-7
• Points scored for me with wins: +27
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +14
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -24
• Points taken from me with losses: -12
• Plus/Minus: +5
  

THE JAGUARS GAME THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TEAM'S FIRST HOME GAME NOT BE BLACKED OUT!

30. (27) PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• Last week: Lost to Cleveland, 13-6 (-15)
  
• Actual Record: 6-7
  
• My predicted record: 12-1
• My record at predicting their record: 5-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +44
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -1
• Points taken from me with losses: -58
  
• Plus/Minus: -15

As I've said many times over, my predicted narratives for last year's Super Bowl teams have ended up being entirely flip-flopped. And if anything, the Steelers themselves are complete opposites of the team they were a year ago.

31. (32) CINCINNATI BENGALS

• Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 30-10 (+8)
  
• Actual Record: 9-4
• My predicted record: 6-7
• My record at predicting their record: 4-9
• Points scored for me with wins: +40
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +8
• Points taken from me with wins: -37
• Points taken from me with losses: -28
• Plus/Minus: -17
  

You know I breathed a huge sigh of relief when the Bengals finally lost a game I'd said they lose, and thus finally moved out of last place in the Power Rankings for the first time since Week Five. And of course as soon as I've lifted the ban on links from Cincy, their fans aren't quite as optimistic as they were a few weeks back.

32. (31) ARIZONA CARDINALS

• Last week: Lost to San Francisco, 24-9 (-6)
  
• Actual Record: 8-5
• My predicted record: 6-7
• My record at predicting their record: 5-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +21
• Points scored for me with losses: +6
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -33
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -21
• Plus/Minus: -27
  

How do you commit seven turnovers anyway? And why don't they do that in the games I pick them to lose?

Lots of winning records locked in for spots where there damn well oughta be winning records, and only two losing records right about where you'd expect a couple losing records. But, hey, everything else is still open!:

16-point games: 6-1
15-point games: 6-2
14-point games: 9-2
13-point games: 12-2
12-point games: 14-0
11-point games: 11-3
10-point games: 12-2
9-point games: 10-4
8-point games: 9-5
7-point games: 6-8
6-point games: 7-7
5-point games: 8-6
4-point games: 10-4
3-point games: 5-9
2-point games: 8-6
1-point games: 5-9

Playoff seeding predictions (numbers in parentheses indicates where I had them ranked in my initial predictions at the beginning of this season [boldface indicates team has clinched playoff berth, italics indicates team is locked in at seed listed]):

AFC
#1 (4) Indianapolis Colts
#2 (2) San Diego Chargers
#3 (-) Cincinnati Bengals
#4 (1) New England Patriots
#5 (-) Denver Broncos
#6 (-) Miami Dolphins

NFC
#1 (3) New Orleans Saints
#2 (1) Minnesota Vikings
#3 (2) Philadelphia Eagles
#4 (-) Arizona Cardinals
#5 (-) Green Bay Packers
#6 (6) New York Giants