Week 16 Picks

I scored 90 points on my picks last week which was third best of the usual six for the second week in a row and makes perfect if you've caught on to what I've been doing for the past few weeks here. I do believe the Saints-Bucs game this week could be a new record high for scenario differences in the two years I've been using my little numbers system. (At quick glance back, it appears the only other 200+ margin of difference I had last year was the Colts-Lions matchup in Week 15.)

Anyway, on to this week's picks from the others I like to include, whether they like it or not:

PFW Spread		Brian Burke	Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	My Numbers
16—Saints (14)		16—Saints (.925)	15—Saints (98%)	16—Saints (31-16)	16—Saints (232)
15—Packers (13 ½)		15—Cardinals (.87)	15—Packers (98%)	15—Cardinals (29-14)	15—Cardinals (191)
14—Cardinals (13)		13.5—49ers (.86)	15—Cardinals (98%)	14—Packers (29-15)	14—49ers (114)
13—Bengals (13 ½)		13.5—Packers (.86)	13—Bengals (97%)	13—Bengals (25-13)	13—Cowboys (112)
12—49ers (10 ½)		12—Giants (.85)	12—49ers (96%)	12—Patriots (28-17)	12—Colts (107)
11—Falcons (8)		11—Bengals (.845)	10.5—Colts (94%)	11—49ers (24-15)	11—Bengals (105)
10—Patriots (7 ½)		10—Patriots (.79)	10.5—Falcons (94%)	10—Eagles (25-17)	10—Chargers (93)
8—Vikings (7)		9—Colts (.78)	9—Patriots (93%)	9—Giants (26-19)	9—Raiders (79)
8—Eagles (7)		8—Vikings (.66)	8—Vikings (92%)	8—Falcons (22-16)	8—Packers (76)
8—Colts (7)		7—Eagles (.64)	7—Giants (90%)	7—Vikings (26-20)	7—Ravens (64)
6—Giants (5)		5.5—Chargers (.63)	6—Eagles (88%)	6—Colts (22-17)	6—Vikings (63)
5—Cowboys (4)		5.5—Cowboys (.63)	5—Cowboys (87%)	5—Steelers (23-20)	5—Giants (59)
4—Browns (3 ½)		3.5—Falcons (.61)	4—Chargers (70%)	4—Texans (24-22)	4—Eagles (48)
2.5—Chargers (3)		3.5—Steelers (.61)	3—Dolphins (69%)	3—Browns (19-17)	3—Patriots (43)
2.5—Dolphins (3)		2—Texans (.60)	2—Browns (62%)	2—Chargers (25-24)	2—Texans (36)
1—Steelers (2)		1—Raiders (.52)	1—Steelers (53%)	1—Cowboys (21-21)	1—Falcons (31)
95.5 points (11-5)		90 points (11-5)	92.5 points (11-5)	98 points (12-4)	81 points (10-6)

Here's my own sheet this week, presented in its entirety with just about no surprises:

16 points
New Orleans Saints (13-1) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12)
+109/-7 : +225/232/-7 : 0/+116

Back-to-back losses for N'awlins would be devastating. If they can return to form over the final two games and blow the shit out of their opponents, they can still enter the playoffs carrying the level of respect you'd hope for in a No. 1 seed.

15 points
Arizona Cardinals (9-5) over St. Louis Rams (1-13)
+16/-27 : +164/191/-27 : 0/+148

My immediate thought is how I could get burned again on a 15-point pick, but the Cardinals have to be aware that the possibility of a bye is still mathematically possible, not to mention a higher seed.

14 points
Green Bay Packers (9-5) over Seattle Seahawks (5-9)
+31/-4 : +92/76/+16 : +20/+61

Packers have to prefer a first round meeting with the Cardinals to facing the Eagles, and the tired Seahawks will more than likely be phoning it in anyway.

13 points
San Francisco 49ers (6-8) over Detroit Lions (2-12)
+4/+29 : +143/114/+29 : 0/+139

Is this really only the third time I'm picking the Niners this year? I know I talked down about them early in the year, but that surprises even me.

12 points
Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) over Kansas City Chiefs (3-11)
+12/-21 : +80/105/-25 : -4/+68

A true must-have for the Bengals.

11 points
Indianapolis Colts (14-0) over New York Jets (7-7)
+106/-4 : +108/107/+1 : +5/+2

Sure they'd like to rest some guys, but if you saw how NBC put up that irritating "Rivalry of the Decade" graphic every other goddamned second of the Colts-Pats Sunday Night game a few weeks back, then you have to believe Peyton wants an undefeated season just to show he can do it too. A little reinforcement of their home-field advantage wouldn't hurt either.

10 points
New England Patriots (9-5) over Jacksonville Jaguars (7-7)
+58/-3 : +55/43/+12 : +15/-3

Sucks for the Pats they had to draw a tougher opponent, but they've gotta keep pace with the Bengals and put off a rematch with the Colts until the AFC Championship (... maybe).

9 points

Minnesota Vikings (11-3) over Chicago Bears (5-9)
+69/-4 : +94/63/+31 : +35/+25

With their first round bye no longer a sure thing and a week's worth of the Favre drama that most any sensible person knew was an inevitability, the Vikes should put the Bears away early and I'll bet Brett agrees to take a seat this week and mug it up for the cameras to help push Minnesota back into being considered among the post-season favorites.

8 points
New York Giants (8-6) over Carolina Panthers (6-8)
+36/-6 : +72/59/+13 : +19/+36

I still thoroughly buy into the notion of a suddenly resurgent Giants team squeaking past their rivals from Big D and into the playoffs. They can't do that by losing, so tough shit, Carolina.

7 points
Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) over Denver Broncos (8-6)
+50/+3 : +47/48/-1 : -4/-3

They've both got something to play for, but I simply think the Eagles are flat-out playing better and need to maintain that one-game lead over the Cowboys heading into the big finale next week.

6 points
Atlanta Falcons (7-7) over Buffalo Bills (5-9)
+35/+41 : +80/31/+49 : +8/+45

I'll buy into the Falcons' mission to finish above .500 in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history more than the possibility of the Bills winning another game this year.

5 points
Dallas Cowboys (9-5) over Washington Redskins (4-10)
+55/-4 : +124/112/+12 : +16/+69

This is the easy one of the remaining two for Dallas—which makes me worry. (Note Wunderdog making this the least confident pick of the week.)

4 points
San Diego Chargers (11-3) over Tennessee Titans (7-7)
+85/+7 : +113/93/+20 : +13/+28

The Chargers really have become my potential favorites to get to the Super Bowl. Sure, it'll seem an obvious favorite perhaps, but let's face it: they've been as consistent as any other team in the league. The Titans will give them a game, but San Diego has continuously found ways to win close games, the mark of a truly dangerous team in the post-season.

3 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) over Baltimore Ravens (8-6)
-13/-1 : -12/64/+52 : +53/+1

The playoffs have already started for Pittsburgh; they lose and their season is done.

2 points
Houston Texans (7-7) over Miami Dolphins (7-7)
+24/-3 : +38/36/+2 : +5/+14

And much like the above, this is essentially a playoff game for both of these teams for the very same reason.

1 point
Cleveland Browns (3-11) over Oakland Raiders (5-9)
0/+97 : +22/79/+101 : +4/+22

AW HELL YEAH, RAISE THE ROOF! I'M GONNA BE SPORTIN' MY PIMP-ASS SWEAT ON SUNDAY AND AM FINALLY PICKING THE BROWNS TO WIN A GAME FOR THE VERY FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.