Week 14 Picks

Now that the great Week 13 experiment of one year ago was a tremendous success for my picks last week, what am I to do for these final four weeks? Well, the plan is to erase a 25-point margin and see if I can still finish first in the one pool I participated in last year as well, while I'm sitting in third in the Yahoo one I joined. Oh, and thank God, fantasy football ends this week.

Anyway, my numbers were the best sheet out there last week. Here's how the usual five hypotheticals would look this week:

PFW Spread		Brian Burke	Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	My Numbers
16—Ravens (12 ½)		16—Steelers (.91)	15.5—Ravens (98%)	16—Ravens (27-13)	16—Ravens (131)
14.5—Titans (12)		15—Ravens (.89)	15.5—Titans (98%)	15—Steelers (27-14)	15—Steelers (117)
14.5—Patriots (12)		14—Patriots (.86)	14—Patriots (97%)	14—Titans (26-15)	14—Jets (110)
13—Steelers (10)		13—Saints (.85)	13—Steelers (96%)	13—Redskins (23-14)	13—Saints (106)
12—Saints (9 ½)		12—Titans (.83)	12—Saints (93%)	12—Saints (32-23)	12—Titans (86)
11—Colts (7 ½)		11—Texans (.76)	11—Colts (90%)	11—Patriots (25-17)	11—Colts (67)
10—Vikings (7)		10—Redskins (.75)	10—Texans (89%)	10—Jets (23-15)	10—Patriots (53)
9—Texans (6 ½)		8.5—Jets (.72)	8.5—Cardinals (87%)	9—Colts (23-18)	9—Cardinals (51)
8—Jets (3 ½)		8.5—Jaguars (.72)	8.5—Packers (87%)	8—Vikings (24-19)	8—Jaguars (33)
6.5—Chargers (3)		7—Colts (.69)	7—Vikings (83%)	7—Texans (24-19)	7—Bills (32)
6.5—Packers (3)		6—Packers (.68)	6—Jets (80%)	6—Bills (20-17)	6—Texans (27)
5—Raiders (2 ½)		5—Vikings (.66)	5—Chargers (64%)	5—Cowboys (27-23)	5—Vikings (27)
4—Dolphins (2)		4—Bills (.62)	4—Dolphins (59%)	4—Cardinals (23-21)	4—Raiders (24)
2.5—Cardinals (1)		3—Giants (.55)	3—Redskins (57%)	3—Packers (23-21)	3—Chargers (11)
2.5—Bills (1)		2—Chargers (.52)	2—Eagles (56%)	2—Jaguars (23-21)	2—Giants (6)
1—Eagles (EVEN)		1—49ers (.50)	1—Chiefs (52%)	1—Giants (25-23)	1—Packers (0)
115.5 points (13-3)		108.5 points (13-3)	113.5 points (13-3)	109 points (11-5)	98 points (11-5)

Now I've been debating for weeks about putting up a better explanation of how my own numbers are figured, and this week might be the right weekend to do that. You'll notice that Brian Burke's probabilities offered a 50/50 split on Monday Night's contest with no edge given to either team. But my own set of numbers gave no advantage to either the Bears or the Packers in that game, so I'm left in such situations with whatever "my gut" tells me. And it's certainly telling me not to make that my one-point game.

Here's how my sheet will look this week:

16 points
Baltimore Ravens (6-6) over Detroit Lions (2-10)
+25/+1 : +132/131/+1 : 0/+107

Ravens, at home and still fighting for their playoff lives, will gladly accept a gimme like the Lions.

15 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) over Cleveland Browns (1-11)
+1/-1 : +116/117/-1 : 0/+115

The champs suddenly aren't looking so hot, but a visit to Cleveland should help keep them in the playoff talk for another couple of weeks.

14 points
Tennessee Titans (5-7) over St. Louis Rams (1-11)
-6/+28 : +114/86/+28 : 0/+120

Never forget.

13 points
New England Patriots (7-5) over Carolina Panthers (5-7)
+35/-3 : +69/53/+16 : +19/+34

The Panthers have been hearing all year about the brutal lineup they get to end the year on, and now the pummeling can finally begin. It's now or never in Foxboro.

12 points
New Orleans Saints (12-0) over Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
+103/-7 : +134/106/+28 : +35/+31

If the Falcons weren't so banged-up and baffled, I'd give them some legitimacy as an upset threat. Alas, I'm probably done taking chances against the Saints for the rest of this year.

11 points
Indianapolis Colts (12-0) over Denver Broncos (8-4)
+88/-4 : +74/67/+7 : +11/-14

Speaking of having taken enough chances against an undefeated team ...

10 points
New York Jets (6-6) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-11)
-3/+2 : +112/110/+2 : 0/+115

Initially like the thought of the Bucs stealing their second win, but then remembered New York sends the league's best rushing offense against the league's second-worst rushing defense.

9 points

Houston Texans (5-7) over Seattle Seahawks (5-7)
+1/-3 : +53/27/+26 : +29/+52

Houston has just a little more life in them.

8 points
Minnesota Vikings (10-2) over Cincinnati Bengals (9-3)
+72/-4 : +35/27/+8 : +12/-37

As I've said before, Marvin Lewis seems to have a good handle on teams from the NFC North, but the Vikings at home are coming off a pretty humbling loss on national television and will have a little more sense of urgency to their game.

7 points
Green Bay Packers (8-4) over Chicago Bears (5-7)
+24/-5 : +30/0/+30 : +35/+6

This could be considered a fine example of how flawed my own "numbers" system truly is. Green Bay now boasts the top defense in the league and seems certain to grab one of the wild card berths. The Bears are, to put it quite simply, a total mess.

6 points
Arizona Cardinals (8-4) over San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
+6/-27 : +28/51/-23 : +4/+22

Who'd have thought it it would be Pittsburgh that stumbles the season after that Super Bowl? I certainly expected Arizona to be much worse off, but instead, it now looks like they'll be wrapping up another (weak) NFC West crown very soon—as in this weekend.

5 points
Buffalo Bills (4-8) over Kansas City Chiefs (3-9)
+3/+35 : +66/32/+34 : -1/+63

I'd make some snarky comment about the poor people actually attending this game, but watch: Now it'll turn out to be unbelievably exciting. Both of these teams have been so disappointing to their fans, I think it's safe to assume that Kansas City blows it here precisely because they're at home.

4 points
Washington Redskins (3-9) over Oakland Raiders (4-8)
+12/+65 : +45/24/+69 : +4/+33

Basically the same logic as above.

3 points
San Diego Chargers (9-3) over Dallas Cowboys (8-4)
+74/+7 : +73/11/+62 : +55/-1

Should be a ridiculously exciting game to watch, but I'll err on the side of Big D's struggles in December continuing.

2 points
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5) over Miami Dolphins (6-6)
+17/-10 : +28/33/-5 : +5/+11

Another interstate battle with my vote going to the host Jags squeaking out a close one.

1 point
New York Giants (7-5) over Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)
+33/-6 : +37/6/+31 : +37/+4

I'm all for a three-way tie atop the NFC East after this weekend.