The Bears' Second Quarter: They aren't who we hoped they were

I remember a friend and I looking at one of the large posters in a local bar with the Bears' 2010 schedule on it earlier this season when things were still going well, and the nervous feeling I had about how deceptive some of the supposedly easier games were before the much tougher second half kicked in. My prediction at the time was that Chicago could finish 8-8.

So would that be considered optimistic now? When the team's first quarter of this campaign ended, I thought we'd be entering this update with a bit stronger of a winning record than the 5-3 mark the Bears enter their ninth game with. I suppose a .500 finish isn't terribly unrealistic at this point, but considering the fast start to the year, anything less than a playoff appearance would be a pretty crushing disappointment.

And another year without getting into the postseason would also likely mean Lovie Smith is also out of a job. Entering the second half of the year, you can bet that it's the head coach's job that will likely be most talked about if the Bears can't remain in the playoff picture.

RECORD FOR THE QUARTER: 2-2 (5-3 OVERALL) — This spot might be exactly where many people imagined the Bears being at the beginning of the season, although they certainly won a couple games that were expected to be losses and lost a couple contests that were anticipated to be victories. This coming weekend's matchup with the Vikes goes a long way in determining whether Chicago's competing for the top of this division or slipping into third.

BEST WIN: October 10 (Bears 23, Panthers 6) — Julius Peppers was able to enjoy a glorious return to his old stomping grounds, including having a terrific interception in the first quarter. Matt Forte ran for 166 yards in the contest, with 68 of those coming on one of his two touchdown runs. Those were very welcome considering the Bears had zero rushing TDs entering the contest. The Bears defense keyed the victory though, never allowing Carolina to get anything going on offense. Rookie Jimmy Clausen had only thrown for 61 yards with one pick before being pulled in favor of Matt Moore, who then came in and did one better by throwing two interceptions. At the end of the day, the Panthers had only compiled 147 yards of total offense with two measly field goals. Perhaps what was most encouraging of all about the win though was that the victory came with Jay Cutler watching from the bench while still recovering the concussion(s?) he suffered in the loss to the Giants.

WORST LOSS: October 24 (Redskins 17, Bears 14) — DeAngelo Hall tied a league record by intercepting four passes in this game, contributing to six Bears turnovers in the contest. And despite Jay Cutler's bad throws (which he stupidly asserted he'd make again afterward), the worst toss—or lack of one—came from Lovie Smith. The head coach challenged Earl Bennett being ruled down at the 1-yard line before he got the ball across the goal line, even though replays showed the original call was correct. Worse yet was that on the following play, Smith didn't throw the red flag even though it appeared that the ball might have crossed the goal line before Jay Cutler had the ball knocked out of his hands on a quarterback sneak. It proved to be a huge swing in an otherwise tremendously ugly game.

MVP: Julius Peppers — Some things don't show up on stat sheets, so if the numbers from Peppers don't awe you, that's understandable. While he only has two sacks thus far, he's forced two fumbles and his presence has helped allow the Bears defense to blitz less while playing more coverage. Peppers was admittedly pretty well-contained one-on-one in the loss to Seattle, but he's still leading the team with 12 quarterback pressures and, as Kevin Seifert noted, has helped contribute to the Bears only needing to rush four or fewer men on opponents' dropbacks this season. That's led to a 66.6 passer rating from opposing quarterbacks in those situations, the lowest in the league. Considering that defensive tackle Tommie Harris still has yet to regain any of his force along the line, it's Peppers' contributions that have helped make the Bears defense resemble the squad that took them to a Super Bowl four years ago. And as the offense continues to be a work-in-progress from week to week, it's Peppers and the defense that deserve a substantial amount of credit for keeping Chicago in most every game—and will probably have to continue to do so as the schedule gets tougher in the second half of the season. The Bears coughed up a good amount of dough for Peppers in this uncapped season, but in all honesty, it would be pretty frightening to think of where they might be without him at this point.

LVP: Todd Collins — OK, so admittedly the dude's only played in two games this season. And only one of those came in this quarter of the campaign. But he's looked positively dreadful each time out, and his one start during this stretch was even more miserable than his relief effort in New York. After putting up an 8.1 passer rating against the Giants, Collins started against a considerably worse Panthers team and actually played even lousier than before by throwing four interceptions and completing only six. The end result was a 6.3 passer rating and the conclusion that when the Bears ran out to get another backup quarterback to Jay Cutler this preseason, maybe they could've had a little more faith in Caleb Hanie after all. passer rating against New York and 84.0 against Carolina), but this year's proved that the 39-year-old Collins is already over-the-hill with his playing days in the NFL.

THREE THINGS I'VE LIKED SO FAR:

1. DEVIN HESTER'S RETURN TO GLORIOUS RETURNS — Speaking of things we haven't seen since the Super Bowl season, nothing could be more encouraging than knowing that opponents have to once again debate whether to punt to the Bears' return man or kick away from him. It's been too long, Devin.
2. OPPONENTS HAVE NOWHERE TO RUN — The Bears currently boast the third-best defense against the run this season, allowing only 83.9 yards per game. Fix a few lapses in the secondary and we'll really have something.
3. NUMBER OF SACKS ALLOWED GOING DOWN ... — The offensive line's been nothing but a concern most of the year, but the number of times Jay Cutler's been taken down over the past four games has been decreasing. Whether or not that's based on performance along the line or Cutler getting rid of the ball quicker is debatable, but the Bears' chances are obviously better when the QB's not winding up on his back.

THINGS I HAVEN'T:

1. ... BUT I'M STILL NOT SOLD ON THIS OFFENSIVE LINE — They're getting better, but they'll get a much stiffer test in the second half of the season. Chris Williams is obviously still young and learning.
2. THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE SOFTEST QUARTER OF THE SCHEDULE — I believe every team the Bears played this quarter was either below or at .500 coming into each game. The wins for the Seahawks and Redskins put them one game over and maybe they'll end up even making the playoffs, but I'm fairly certain that at the end of the year, Bears fans will be looking back at those two losses as being games they should've won.
3. LOVIE SMITH'S CONDESCENDING TONE — I realize that it's pretty typical to get head coaches in football who aren't particularly friendly with the media, but Smith's pattern this season has been to constantly repeat the Bears' winning record as defense of everything being dandy. When asked specific questions about a particular concern with, say, the play along the offensive line or plays in which the challenge flag was thrown, Lovie has made a habit of responding by acting like reporters don't know what they're talking about. While he may indeed be repeating the "we're a 5-3 team" to reinforce the idea in his team that they're still a winning team, you can't help but wonder what his response will be should the Bears' record slip below .500 (my guess is he'll cite those Seattle and Washington losses as games they were close in and could've won).

25 WORDS OR LESS:

I've got a bad feeling that 8-8 prediction might end up being pretty accurate.